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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    Three of those years rank among the 11 hyperactive (180+ ACE) seasons, with 2 of the Top 3 overall: 1 2005 247.65 3 1893 231.0738 11 2020 180.3725
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    La nina by itself isn't always bad. Just as a deep -IOD isn't always bad by itself. But those two things in combination almost certainly spells a cooked winter. If you have a la nina, you need a +IOD or near neutral IOD to have a chance. If you have a deep -IOD, you need an el nino or near ENSO neutral. La nina and deep -IOD is just not going to work. Unless you're looking for a blowtorch winter and very little snow.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm hoping it stays ENSO neutral. That's probably our best chance for a decent winter. A la nina and deep -IOD combination almost certainly means a blowtorch winter and very low snow totals.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    07-08 is one of those rare winters that didn't follow the November/December la nina rule. We got a cold November/December, with a snowstorm on December 5. Instead of a cold and snowy winter, January-April was warm with very little snow.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Oddly enough, while that was happening, we were having the warmest September on record here. September 1881 remains the warmest September on record in some places, like PHL. But many places in the Eastern US had a snowstorm on April 19-20, 1983 (Boston May 9-10, 1977), which is a higher sun angle than September 16.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, a 1949-50 or 2022-23 snowless type season is not out of the question. Some places could even set a new record low for the least snowy 10-year period in 2025-26. For example, PHL would break the record (set from 1922-23 through 1931-32) with less than 13.4 inches of snow this upcoming winter.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    We had a repeat in 2002-03 through 2004-05. 02-03 was a blockbuster winter, 03-04 was cold, and 04-05 had above average snowfall.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    2020-21 is my next best analog after 1949-50. I like it because it's more recent, but I the one thing working against it is that 20-21 was near a solar min, and we're now near a solar max.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm hoping we stay ENSO neutral. Second-year ENSO neutrals tend to do well. A warmer version of 1993-94 and 2013-14 could be possible.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    If we go la nina, I still like 1949-50 as the best analog. I'll even adjust it for climate: Sorry in advance if we get a torch January and a low snow winter.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    If 2022 really finished below 100 ACE, then this season is easily a lock for below 100 ACE. 2022 was nowhere near as dead as this season. We're halfway through September, and we're still below 40 ACE. We're probably going to finish below 80 ACE, maybe even below 70 ACE.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm pretty sure this 2-year ACE record is going to stand for a very long time. 6 2004 226.94 1 2005 247.65 Even in this era of more storms, we've only had 2 hyperactive ACE seasons post-2005: 8 2017 224.8775 11 2020 180.3725
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    For PHL, last 6-inch snowstorm was Jan 28-29, 2022. Last 8-inch snowstorm was Jan 22-23, 2016. The 2016 one was probably the last real KU for our area.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm pretty sure 2006 had a colder than normal first half and second half of September. It also had a colder than normal first half and second half of October. Then, things really flipped and we had record warmth from November through the first of January 2007 (before the bottom fell out of the thermometer in February 2007).
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    What about 57-58 and 09-10 (the two very snowy el ninos)? Were the 500mb height anomalies similar when adjusted for climate?
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    First time since 1992 we have no tropical activity at the peak of the season. That, of course, followed Hurricane Andrew. It's looking more and more like Erin is going to be a one-off, like Andrew.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    Not really. If last year was a real la nina, then the Nino 1+2 region would not have been in a moderate, borderline strong el nino state. I wouldn't consider last year a la nina. I would consider it a neutral, albeit not in a traditional sense.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    17-18 or 20-21 is probably the best we can do in this new regime, and even those years had a long stretch of warmth/no snow in the middle. Plus, 20-21 didn't even do great along the coastal areas. But a ubiquitously great and long lasting winter in the east (like 13-14 or 14-15) is probably not going to happen.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    1988 was one that turned cold really quickly. The summer, particularly from June to the first half/two-thirds of August, was then a warmest on record. Then at the end of August, it just turned cold, and never really looked back. October 1988 was one of the coldest on record, and in some spots, beat out the cold standard of October 1976: Come to think of it, the warm west makes this look like the October version of February (or JFM) 2015.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Barring a 10/2/2019 event, this should be all she wrote for the summer weather until next season.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    Drought guy wrong again. I've been drought free since March 5.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    I love how you cherry pick "Philly to Boston". Why not the mid-Atlantic (Philly to DC)? Oh wait, a lot of places there had a higher snow average the last 2 years than in 16-17 to 22-23, so it won't fit your agenda?
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    Classic case is 2011. That was a cold October, with a snowstorm at the end of the month. Pattern flipped soon thereafter, and it was blowtorch from November through March.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    Octobers have been almost always warmer than average since 2010. Funny enough, the only 2 that were below average were 2011 and 2022, and both of those winters were snowless blowtorches.
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