PhiEaglesfan712

I'm not surprised. I see January 17-31 being warmer than average and February 1-14 colder.

It depends who plays quarterback for the Eagles on Sunday. If it's Kenny, then sorry, no snow. However, if it's Jalen or Tanner, then we will get a snowstorm on Monday.

Not similar at all. For one, 1976-77 was an el nino, and when the -PDO flipped to +PDO. Secondly, the summer of 1976 was a frontloaded summer, reaching its highest temperature in mid-April and most of its 90-degree days were by June 30. Signs of a record cold season were already there by the end of summer. The record cold started in October 1976 and continued through January 1977. Soon thereafter, the pattern flipped, with March 1977 being very warm, which would continue throughout the spring.

To be fair, Tanner McKee is a way better quarterback than Kenny Pickett. I don't know what people see in Pickett, but he's never been anything special.

It hasn't snowed on December 29 in a long time. I know it hasn't since at least 1992, when my sister was born. The closest was in 2000, when it snowed on December 30. (The Eagles won a playoff game at the Vet, in the snow, the following day. Hey, remember when the playoff games were in December?) I'll be at the Eagles game today, no snow again.

2018 wasn't even that cold. The first week was, but the last few were warmer than normal. 2009 was colder than 2018. Cold la nina Januarys since 1980: 1984 26.2 -6.1 1985 27.3 -5.0 1996 30.2 -2.1 2009 29.0 -3.3 2011 29.3 -3.6 2018 and 2022 were near normal: 2018 32.8 -0.1 2022 32.4 -0.5

I'm hoping this early January cold spell is short and a relaxation happens during the 2nd half of the month. I'd rather have that than cold all January and a relaxation in February because that's almost always a kiss of death for the winter.

That would make 2021-22 probably the best fit ONI/RONI/MEI analog. That was the year the ONI started to drift apart from the RONI and MEI.

I actually think the below normal temperatures for the 1/4 to 1/17 period will be contained to south of DCA. North of DCA, I think we'll see near normal temperatures for that period, and well above average temperatures for the last 2 weeks of January.

Spoiler alert: The next 3 months brings epic cold and snowfall. It will be the snowiest season until 1996, and you won't get a January-March this cold in the next 35 years.

The closest analogs are 05-06, 08-09, and 21-22. Two of these (2006 and 2009) flipped to el nino the following year (with one, 09-10, being a strong el nino), while the third (2022) stayed a la nina. Oddly enough, the two that flipped to el nino produced strong la ninas in year 2, while the one that stayed a la nina flipped to a strong el nino in year 2. So I guess whatever ENSO state we have in 2025-26, we'll have the reverse in 2026-27 (and likely a strong event).

Not necessarily. The late season la ninas in 2006 and 2009 went straight to el nino the following year, with the latter (2009-10) being a strong el nino. Although, each case produced a strong la nina in the second year following (2007-08 and 2010-11). On the flip side, the late season la nina in 2022 continued into 2022-23, but went strong el nino during the 2nd year following. My guess is that the 2022 scenario is more likely, but history favors 2026-27 having the opposite ENSO (in extreme strength) of 2025-26.

2009-10 in the Baltimore/Wash DC area is another. Baltimore had 80 in of snow in 2 months (from 12/19 to 2/10 - they even had more snow than Syracuse at that point in the season), before the snow came to an end all of a sudden. March 2010 was very warm, and it was summerlike by the first week of April 2010.

JFM 2014 and JFM 2015 was wall-to-wall cold everywhere in the East. Those were the coldest JFMs since 1978. 93-94 was another wall-to-wall cold winter.

I'm assuming he's talking about 93-94 because 94-95 was a very warm winter, especially December and January. 93-94 was wall-to-wall cold, and had the last below zero day at PHL (-5 on 1/19/1994).

Yeah, February 2006 and February 2021 are classical examples of cold/snow happening with a -PNA. This was following long periods of warm and virtually snowless weather during +PNA.

The pattern came back again for the last week of March. Turned a +4 temperature departure for the first 3 weeks to near normal. Of course, it was too late for snow here at PHL, but places more north got snow in late March 2011. PHL: 2011-03-23 43 38 40.5 -5.2 24 0 0.23 0.0 0 2011-03-24 44 33 38.5 -7.5 26 0 0.02 T 0 2011-03-25 45 28 36.5 -9.9 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-26 43 27 35.0 -11.8 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-27 46 30 38.0 -9.1 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-28 47 28 37.5 -10.0 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-29 52 31 41.5 -6.4 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-30 51 33 42.0 -6.2 23 0 T 0.0 0 2011-03-31 44 39 41.5 -7.1 23 0 0.05 0.0 0 NYC: 2011-03-23 40 32 36.0 -8.8 29 0 0.87 T 0 2011-03-24 44 30 37.0 -8.2 28 0 0.09 1.0 1 2011-03-25 42 28 35.0 -10.5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-26 40 26 33.0 -12.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-27 45 28 36.5 -9.7 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-28 45 26 35.5 -11.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-29 49 31 40.0 -6.9 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-30 53 36 44.5 -2.8 20 0 0.01 0.0 0 2011-03-31 43 37 40.0 -7.7 25 0 0.13 T 0 BOS: 2011-03-20 40 30 35.0 -4.2 30 0 0.00 0.0 2011-03-21 41 34 37.5 -2.0 27 0 0.16 0.3 2011-03-22 44 35 39.5 -0.3 25 0 0.00 0.0 2011-03-23 40 32 36.0 -4.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 2011-03-24 39 31 35.0 -5.4 30 0 0.01 0.2 2011-03-25 45 30 37.5 -3.2 27 0 0.00 0.0 2011-03-26 41 26 33.5 -7.5 31 0 0.00 0.0 2011-03-27 45 27 36.0 -5.4 29 0 0.00 0.0 2011-03-28 48 28 38.0 -3.7 27 0 0.00 0.0 2011-03-29 49 32 40.5 -1.5 24 0 0.00 0.0 2011-03-30 55 34 44.5 2.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 2011-03-31 44 33 38.5 -4.2 26 0 0.35 0.6

The last week of December doesn't look like a torch after all. I don't think we're going to get the really cold Jan 4-17 the models are showing. It will probably be closer to normal. No way are we getting anything close to a 13-14 type winter, which was wall-to-wall cold from Jan-March. I think we're going to get something closer to 20-21.

About 2 in, but even as recently as the 22nd morning, temps were in the mid-60s. Earlier in the month, temps were in the 70s. That snowstorm came out of the blue.

1983-84 definitely is not because that was a +PDO winter. 1998-99 is an okay analog. That was the winter when we switched back to -PDO. Thing I don't like about 98-99 was that December 98 was really warm right up until a few days before the "Christmas Miracle" snowstorm on Dec. 23-24. We had a good 3 weeks of snow until mid-January, then nothing really until mid-March.

What's a perma-nina?

What was the PNA in February 1986, February 2006, and February 2021?

Looks like a toss-up between ENSO neutral and la nina conditions for 2025-26:

If this is right, then a January 2011 redux is almost certainly going to happen. However, I am very skeptical of any of this coming to fruition.

No "cold oval" for late January: Hopefully, this means a return to cold weather during the first week of February.