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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    in between plane runs to the storm...next one is at 5:30 Eastern I think
  2. Brian5671
    That will keep any land interaction to a minimum....
  3. Brian5671
    Some of that may be after Landfall?
  4. Brian5671
    Global Models are initializing too high so I wouldn't rely on them for pressure....
  5. Brian5671
    Mostly green here too. Today's rain was nice to settle the dust lol
  6. Brian5671
    Pressure too high on initialization so hard to say what it hits as-use globals for track but not intensity?
  7. Brian5671
    That was the one-but it was moving E to W and perhaps pulled into Cuba....this one might be repelled a bit given the W to E motion?
  8. Brian5671
    ICON also initialized at 981-not even close
  9. Brian5671
    Wont matter much for surge but even a 100MPH windfield into Tampa is going to be terrible. Some good discussion over on the tropical forum here.
  10. Brian5671
    Nice dose of much needed rain this morning here about .50
  11. Brian5671
    Looks like a SE movement right now-has time to make the turn more E then ENE/NE but if it doesn't it would be obviously weaker with any Yucatan interaction or even a LF there.
  12. Brian5671
    Wont matter that much in terms of surge though-that's baked it once it hits Cat 4-5. Wind damage less of course
  13. Brian5671
    Is there much of a population there?
  14. Brian5671
    forecast shows it turning east or ene later today or tonight-would be surprised with an actual LF there
  15. Brian5671
    a couple downpours here with thunder....much needed
  16. Brian5671
    The water is likely churned up there-wonder how long that would last and how it could inhibit strengthening?
  17. Brian5671
    99.9% chance given the death toll and extreme inland destruction
  18. Brian5671
    The whole winter was essentially waiting for a good pattern-went from late Dec to mid Jan-finally shows up but craps out after a week-then another long wait and we got 5 cold days in Feb then that was it...
  19. Brian5671
    the other problem is that if the "Good pattern" hasn't arrived by March it's probably not coming...
  20. Brian5671
    At least at this point with 3 duds in a row-expectations are low. But we'll see the same ol posts I'm sure...."The NAO is negative" "You're giving up? It's only ____ fill in preferred date" "Joe Schmoe said it's coming next month!" "this year looks like ____ (fill in snowy winter here)"
  21. Brian5671
    Where are you going to get cold air this time of year? Arctic sea ice is at its lowest extent in Sept.
  22. Brian5671
    MJO just doesnt want to take a run through 8-1-2 these days
  23. Brian5671
    Who is in denial about a warming climate at this stage? Even JB says we are warming up.
  24. Brian5671
    No road even in summer wow
  25. Brian5671
    Someday I want to check it out. LOL. Got to be boring maybe one restaurant/bar?
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