I think this is what has some down-this map is from 11/30 for valid date 12/13--looks like it was too fast in the end which makes sense-models always too fast for pattern changes and also too fast to break them down
Severe weather event on the Euro down south in about a week. Gets cold here but it's not til day 10. That's about it for a the next 7-10 days on the euro
It's better later in the season. It will cut off the cold air supply so in Jan/Feb it at least has a better chance of trapping a decent airmass (which is what happened in 2009-10 winter). In December you're likely to trap a crap airmass and that's exactly what we are getting....
That much is true. People discounted it b/c "it's the GFS" but have to look at all guidance. EPS was bad in 19-20 as well showing a good pattern 2nd half of winter that never came.
I think that was mainly the last frigid week though? That was one heck of a cold snap-I didn't crack freezing for 2 weeks from Xmas day to the blizzard in early Jan.
December since 2011 have been warm and snowless outside of storms in 2013 and 2020 but it warmed right back up after the those mid month storms. Can't have a bad PAC in December-we're just locking in a crappy airmass with any Atlantic block...looks warm and stormy next couple of weeks....more drought busting rains at least...
Good post. Decembers have generally been mild/snowless going back to 2011 at least for the coastal plain. Couple mid month storms in 2013 and 2020 but right back to warmth after said storms....