Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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yep into Nova Scotia-very strong hurricane Fiona
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Flash freeze lol. The precip ends, winds come and roads dry quickly...same ol same ol every time. -
-PNA in a nina....they will always do well in that scenario....
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you would need precip to be falling to get a true flash freeze-once the rain ends, dry air will pour in as temps drop-the wind and dry air will take care of most paved surfaces outside of puddles/standing water anywhere.
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Look at all the warmth in Eastern Canada going back to last spring....
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We had about 5 inches here caked with ice at the end-great event but then we torched rest of way...
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Yep Colorado ski resorts have had 7-9 feet of snow since then-one of their best starts to winter ever.
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Models started to show this almost within days of the initial pattern showing up on models. It was ignored but it became the determining factor in the end and we ended up with a couple of cutters and not much cold...anyone that says the warm NW Atlantic waters don't mean anything are fooling themselves...
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never buy into an OP model past 5 days or ensembles after day 10. That's the error.
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We won't see a flash freeze though-those almost never verify-the precip will shut off and the winds and incoming dry air will dry paved surfaces before we breach freezing temp of 32
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That ridge has also been keeping us warmer-the big warm blob of water causing a positive feedback loop on the ridge as well.
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Not over but the December to remember is.
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yep grasping at straws....we're torched with the strong primary going to the lakes regardless
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Fair point but I've seen some patterns where a certain set of analogs are used and then the sensible weather ends up nothing like it...maybe that's just part of the equation it's not always a match in the end...
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And using analogs from colder times-say pre 1990-are largely worthless these days...
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You are probably at least partially right. The NW Atlantic is well above normal and has been for a couple of years-has to play into it...
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the warning signs were there from the get go....when things get continually delayed it's a big red flag it's not coming....
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sometimes you just have to laugh...who would have thought how disappointing this blocking pattern turned out?
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my house faces south and the 3 wreaths are hurting from the sun exposure and some of the warm days...shedding needles everywhere-might dump one of them on 12/26 lol
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"delayed not denied" LOL
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I grew up in Philly-we were on the northern edge of all the storms that month so we had a few inches on the ground almost the entire time
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Yep data sparse regions-that's why we often see abrupt changes as the energy gets into data rich regions
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We think models are bad today--they were horrendous back then..I remember both of those busts vividly...
