BuffaloWeather

A few pictures from the event.

Definitely some graupel in there, we had some this afternoon here too.

The peak of the entire pandemic should occur sometime in late January/early Feb. Then a gradual decline until this thing is hopefully completely gone by end of 2021.

All 3 ENS look pretty decent after first 10 days of January.

Calling for +5 for January for KBUF.

Trash PAC

It could be worse 2020 isn't quite over yet, but barring something unexpected - For DC (downtown station plus DCA airport) has its warmest minimum for the calendar year on record, 22, beating 21 in 1949. Also the least snowy calendar year on record, 0.2", beating 0.5" in 1998. — NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) December 28, 2020

The PV splits but the cold air goes to the Northwest

From Met on NE forum EPO sucks but the NAO is a fraud -NAO. It’s not a west-based Davis Strait or even Hudson Bay block. It’s eastern Greenland to Iceland ridging with a vortex over Baffin Island...in scientific technical lingo, that’s called a dogshit negative NAO. They can be ok when the PAC is mediocre but not when it is hostile. Previously, model guidance showed a true Davis Strait block which was going to offset the shitty PAC. Basically the PAC has sucked for a few years now.

Lots of cutters next 2 weeks. Should be a few really warm days tossed in there compared to average. Feel pretty confident in another above average month in January.

Yeah, next 10 days not looking so good, but definitely some hope for Jan.

Well most Ninas feature good winter months in Dec/Jan and bad winter months in Feb. onwards. Just going by analogs. This is behaving nothing like a Nina, but more like a Nino. Canada is on fire, usually in a Nina they are much colder up there.

The thing is with clipper patterns you get 1-6" from the clipper, sometimes more but its rare and then you get the cold air over the lakes behind which can result in big time lake effect. Those types of events add up over time. Go check out 2013-2014 LES events. We had 15 LES events that year! This is why I always say get us the cold and we will have an above average snowfall year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=A https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary1314 Rochesterdave says rochester doesn't benefit but when you have that many events, they get hit hard too. With more events you get a variety of wind directions, it really benefits the entire sub.

13/14 had a great clipper pattern, was the last good one.

Give me a clipper pattern for just a couple weeks, is that so much to ask? At least we can guarantee everyone in our sub gets to experience winter that way. I honestly don't remember the last clipper pattern, we used to get them all the time in Upstate.

Looks like Tuesday will be your best shot. Looks like a pretty decent band too.

You know I can get behind that.

February is going to be rockin.

Who was getting excited about January? SSW are completely random in effecting us over here. Even with them you need a delivering mechanism, all the cold air is on the other side of the globe....again. The Pacific has been terrible for 2 years straight. We are entering top climo as January is our coldest month so we can still average above normal and get some surprise events up here.

I want some swag. I love this thing, wanted to see it in action with a real snowstorm.

Since this thread will be dead for awhile, finished with 23.5". A few videos from yesterday.