Off Lake Erie...
A band of heavy snow is focused from near Dunkirk across much of
southern and central Erie County to near Batavia early this morning.
The band will remain in this area through about daybreak, then drift
north and focus right over the heart of the Buffalo Metro area into
northwest Genesee County from mid morning to mid afternoon. The
northern edge of the band will get as far north as North Buffalo and
the southern portions of Amherst and Clarence for at least a few
hours during this time. Snowfall rates will maintain at 2-3 inches
per hour in the most intense portion of this band through early
afternoon.
Boundary layer flow will veer more to the WSW during the mid to late
afternoon, pushing the lake effect snow back south across the
southtowns, ending up back along the Lake Erie shore to southern
Erie County by this evening. Inversion heights begin to lower by
late afternoon and early evening, and shear increases somewhat. Even
so, a favorable environment below the inversion will still maintain
accumulating lake effect snow tonight. With this in mind, converted
the Winter Storm Warning to a Lake Effect Snow Warning for southern
Erie, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus counties and extended it through most
of tonight.
Lake effect snow will weaken later tonight and end quickly Sunday
morning as inversion heights lower dramatically as warm advection
begins aloft.
Additional accumulations of 12-18 inches are expected today through
tonight from far northern Chautauqua/far northwest Cattaraugus
counties into southern and central Erie County, far western Wyoming,
and western Genesee counties. This includes much of the City of
Buffalo, immediate southern and eastern suburbs. A few localized
locations may see additional amounts nearing 2 feet.