BuffaloWeather

Yeah with global warming, everyone down here has Jet Skis, very little snowmobiles now adays until you get much higher elevation. The majority of my group of friends has one and are able to use it from May-October. With snowmobiles you're lucky if you get out 3-4 times a winter.

Even once the pattern does change, this is pretty terrible for our area. Too warm for lake effect, and too far south for the storm track for synoptic. This pattern is probably the worst out there. We want an East based -NAO to allow that pocket off cold air near Alaska to funnel through for our area and provide a slightly -EPO. I got nothing good to say about January.

What's really crazy to me is how the cold air has been in Russia every winter for the last 6 years. The last below normal Dec-Feb was in 2013-2014.

I was in my pool everyday from June-August. Best summer ever

Didn't the polls say 50% of the country would refuse to get the vaccine? I have a friend who is a Physicians Assistant and even he isn't getting it.

Out west looks quite nice. Snowboarding or skiing has very little risk with contracting covid. Especially open door lifts. It's crazy to think just 2 months ago I hiked a bunch of those spots with triple digit snow.

Yep that is correct.

2009-2010 was a really weird winter. Only snowfall was Dec/Jan/Feb, nothing at all any other month https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow

2009-2010 was a pretty bad winter here. Only a Trace for all for March and 13" in Feb. We're already punting first 2 weeks of January.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202012291718-KBUF-NOUS41-PNSBUF

Agreed but anything beyond 10-14 days is highly inaccurate. GEFS at very end of run still showing above normal, but more manageable. No LES for 2-3 weeks. Really only thing I care about.

Great pattern

Airmass blows. +4-8 departures first 2 weeks of January. Average temps start to increase 3rd week of January.

Euro weeklies

Western NY had 2 synoptic events of 4-8" and 1 big LES event, that's it for the year. When was the last good clipper pattern? 2013/2014?

Looks good for you Josh. I don't think we see any flakes here for at least 2+ weeks. I also don't see enough cold air in long range for possibly longer than that. At least Lake Erie will stay warm.

An intense band of lake effect snow dropped over a foot of snow to central NY overnight. Forecast was for 4-7".

I knew that band looked good last night. Had to be some 3"+ per hour rates in there and it wasn't really moving much. Congrats Central NY Guys, lake effect is the best!

I don't see cold enough air for any substantial LES for at least 2 weeks.

@SouthBuffaloSteve not the best, but was able to export Niziols twitter links to a twitterdownloader and piece them together on Davinci Resolve, came out ok.

That's a pretty nice LES band, what's going on over there? Looks to be over Parish and Oswego?

Bills going to the superbowl.

Agreed, but it will mostly be under control and life "should" be back to somewhat normalcy.

From NE Forum: Weeklies gone wild from mid-January onward....PAC gets better and NAO blocking looks more classic. Let’s hope it is right. EPO never gets great on weeklies but it doesn’t have to if the NAO/AO ends up like it depicts. It goes into a bit more of a neutral state and the PNA ridging pops a little more. It’s not a cold pattern up here but it is a good one for snow events. Definitely a cold pattern down south though. Weeklies could be wrong though. They don’t have a lot of skill beyond week 3. Still not a good look for lake effect.