From @OHweather
The very strong positive East Asian Mountain Torque (the very strong high pressure over eastern Asia) which is causing our strong Pacific jet stream and flood of mild air, but is also contributing to the developing strat warming event, is hinted to begin weakening in the the 7-10 day:
This causes the trough to begin retrograding across the northern Pacific as the Pacific jet begins to pull back a bit. As a result, both the GEFS and EPS begin raising heights in the 10-15 day range on the West Coast of the US and Canada:
With an active sub-tropical jet and developing split flow over the western U.S., along with a persistent, west-based -NAO, this would begin increasing the risk for winter storms across the eastern and central U.S. around or just after January 10th. It would not immediately be a very cold pattern, but it could be a snowy one for some areas.
The EPS continues to retrograde the trough into northeast Asia in the 10-15 day range while the Pacific jet continues pulling back. I'm not sure this lasts long, but could give a window for ridging into Alaska after mid-month. With a split flow over the western US and continued -NAO, a window of ridging over Alaska could both introduce colder air, but also lead to a quite active pattern for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into the Northeast beginning around or just after the middle of January.
This is still a long way's out, but signs point to a better Pacific pattern soon. Given the -NAO in place slowing down any storms over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, all we need is a somewhat cooperative Pacific to have some fun.