BuffaloWeather

GFS is dropping the PV to us with changing wind directions! Look at those lower pressures over Hudson Bay. Classic. -EPO allows the cold air to come down from Canada and the -NAO allows the blocking and retrogradation of lows to Hudson bay. Wayy out there, but Buffalos blockbuster LES events have a similar setup to below image.

Buffalo Bills signed Devonte Freeman. Interesting move. I think we need to get Williams called up, he played great against Miami. Worried about Yeldons fumbling.

Vaccines are definitely ramping up quickly. Should hit 2-5 million a day in the next few weeks they're saying. In combination with herd immunity/flu season ending in a few months I think by summer hospitals are all back to normal! U.S. Daily Covid Vaccinations Rise by Record 1.25 Million https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-11/u-s-daily-covid-vaccinations-rise-by-record-1-25-million?srnd=prognosis

Icon would be pretty big LES event for Erie County. Goes on for a few days with meandering bands. Temps not all that cold but its enough. Sunday-Weds.

The south is having a record year which to me is very odd as we are at +6 for January yet its snowing in Texas/Louisana somehow! A really odd pattern.

Tonights event is all northern Erie. Like I said last night the way the wave is coming in it favors SW even SSW wind. You should be in a good spot for a few inches.

RGEM for todays event

GEFS for snowfall

Buf is currently +6 for the month. Snowfall departure: -12.1"

New thread:

After a small LES event today into tomorrow it looks like a cutter goes into the northern Great Lakes with a possibility of a redeveloping low in the Northeast. This will allow a chance at a stronger LES event at the end of the weekend. This weekend DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Cold air passing over the Eastern Great Lakes this weekend will bring the potential for accumulating lake effect snow, with the possibility for significant amounts. Lake snows are most likely Saturday night through Sunday night. Saturday, the surface coastal low quickly departs off to the northeast towards the Atlantic coast. In its wake, cold air advection nudges 850 hPa temperatures down to around -8C/-10C by Saturday evening. It will likely be until after the upper level trough of low pressure passes overhead that lake snows will begin...with the best timing Saturday night and into Sunday. There will be marginally cold enough lapse rates for lake snows, but with lake induced equilibrium levels reaching 5 to 8K feet, as winds align Saturday night and into Sunday, decent plumes of lake snows are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario where lapse rates will be slightly steeper. The 00Z ECMWF is most aggressive with ending the lake snows, pushing a surface ridge towards our region Monday, while the GFS and Canadian maintain the potential for lake snows into Monday. Looking further ahead it looks like the EPO goes negative around the 20th. The other indices below With a -EPO and -NAO it should set a battleground for synoptic systems somewhere near our area. I still see some cutters, but we should get into a more active wintry pattern. Looking even further out below EPS GEFS

@TugHillMatt All the snow is in Japan

With the way this shortwave is working in from the NW, I'd favor a more northerly component to the winds then typical LES. I think max is right around airport from this or slightly north.

Thermal througing is only present in early season events. With the lake at 36 degrees I don’t think it’s as likely as it is in November and December.

Obviously a lot of grass showing but still a lot of snow cover and large piles. My deck still has 2” on it.

We've had snow on the ground the last few weeks here but nothing makes it feel like winter then snow falling from the sky. You can take the crusty 2" of snow on my backdeck for some snow falling.

3KM

Taking the under wolf. max of 11" near KBUF.

They always underestimate. No global was showing Buffalo getting 20"+ for the Christmas event.

Much better, I decided to take the meds for now ( No benzos) because the symptoms were so bad. Going to see how I feel in a few weeks and if its all good start to slowly ease off of them and hopefully back to myself. Still getting dizzy/light headed episodes and it seems the nighttime makes it much worse. When I wake up from sleep it's when I feel the worse. Also cutting my caffeine intake way down and never taking preworkout again.

Feels fantastic with the sun out today, around 40 and sunny here. It really makes my body feel better to see the sun.

All the models show a pretty decent LES event for all of Erie county next week.

Icon looks good for all of Erie county too.

Buffalos weather on Saturday is going to favor the Ravens quite a bit. I'm really worried. Windy/Snowy/Cold on Sat night. Lamar/Dobbins going to put up 400 yards rushing.

Looks like GFS isn't running at 12Z GEM