BuffaloWeather

This has been a very good year for weird places to get lots of snow. NWS text from Fort Stockton, TX: Tonight Snow. Low around 26. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Thursday Snow, mainly before noon. High near 36. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Fort Stockton, TX averages 1" of snow per year.

Sunday-Monday event has a chance.

From @OHweather The very strong positive East Asian Mountain Torque (the very strong high pressure over eastern Asia) which is causing our strong Pacific jet stream and flood of mild air, but is also contributing to the developing strat warming event, is hinted to begin weakening in the the 7-10 day: This causes the trough to begin retrograding across the northern Pacific as the Pacific jet begins to pull back a bit. As a result, both the GEFS and EPS begin raising heights in the 10-15 day range on the West Coast of the US and Canada: With an active sub-tropical jet and developing split flow over the western U.S., along with a persistent, west-based -NAO, this would begin increasing the risk for winter storms across the eastern and central U.S. around or just after January 10th. It would not immediately be a very cold pattern, but it could be a snowy one for some areas. The EPS continues to retrograde the trough into northeast Asia in the 10-15 day range while the Pacific jet continues pulling back. I'm not sure this lasts long, but could give a window for ridging into Alaska after mid-month. With a split flow over the western US and continued -NAO, a window of ridging over Alaska could both introduce colder air, but also lead to a quite active pattern for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into the Northeast beginning around or just after the middle of January. This is still a long way's out, but signs point to a better Pacific pattern soon. Given the -NAO in place slowing down any storms over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, all we need is a somewhat cooperative Pacific to have some fun.

Bad news that Beasley is likely hurt for awhile. He wanted 1k yards in that 4th quarter.

Should be at least 25k but we will take what we can get. It's outside and fits 72k fans

The 3rd/4th storm has more potential than this next one.

The storm around the 3rd on the Para vs regular GFS

Not sure if anyone saw this but HOLY! We know where all the cold air is! https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/29/mongolia-air-pressure-record/

Mid month improving

Peak climo, so we should be able to muster up a little lake effect with that setup.

This year is already better than last year with that great event. Give me 1 more of those and this is at least a B+ winter. My winter grades are mainly dependent on how many good LES events we get. Nothing beats those snowfall rates around here and walking around in it. Like wolf said its a drug.

A little hope. The stuff needed for good lake effect still on other side of the globe. But this isn't terrible.

I've heard true detective was really well done, that's on my list. My buddy said Wire is incredible too. So much to watch thanks~!

Sad times when we're talking about 1-2" of slop and then rain afterwards in January.

Definitely going to be quite warm though, that's a lock

West Based NAO. The worst pattern for great lakes. Too warm for lake effect, and storm track to far east for synoptic. We need to get a negative EPO going.

That makes sense. KBUF is right next to the Buffalo Airport. The Buffalo national weather service official building is like 1/4 mile away where they measure, so it makes sense for them to be the spot for measuring.

If KBUF moved 5 miles SE of its location, the yearly average would go up 10-20". Pretty crazy

It's a very marginal +PNA, and combined with a +++EPO it means a raging PAC jet flowing into lower 48. -EPO solves everything.

Definitely a downward trend in 12+ days on KBUFS map. As you pointed out definitely skewed a lot by 1970s https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFsnowdepth

The longer lake erie stays ice free the better chance of a big LES event. However, we need cold air to get good LES. That's been tough to find.

To be fair Jan 15th is pretty much prime climo. So that map would likely yield snow as the precip type. However, 2 weeks of no chance of Lake effect sucks in January.

The 1950s were one of Buffalos snowiest decades, (at least the second half) although it didn't stick around long https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow 1955-1960 were incredible winters here for snowfall to totals.

This is highly flawed my man. Before the 1940s the record keeping was done right on the shoreline, literally on the beach. So of course snowfall depth/totals would be much lower then where they are now at Buffalo International Airport (14 miles inland). I didn't expect you to know this though. You can only use 1943 onward for Buffalo stats. 1943-1944 is the first datapoint you can use https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFsnowdepth The average number of days for the past 76 winter seasons are: 1 inch - 71.2 days 6 inches - 24.6 days 12 inches 8.6 days

Nice cam, added to bookmarks. Vancouver is beautiful.