SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Even the 12k NAM is already busting low with temps. NAM says I should be at 35 and DCA should be at 37. I'm at 38/39 and it's already around or above 40 at DCA.

Yeah I’ll take whatever, I think we’ll just have to get used to this unfortunately on the coastal plain as our climate rapidly warms. Was supposed to have a high of 39 today, just went for a run in rock creek and it’s beautiful out lol. Nice and warm in the sun temp up to 38 already, running in a t-shirt.

It’s surprising this trended to another white rain/mix event with temps 33-36 in DC. I guess that’s been the seasonal trend though, there is never any deep cold preceding a storm. We haven’t had a storm with temps in the 20s the night before in quite some time.

Only fly in the ointment I see is the stupid boundary level temps on the NAM. NAM seems to be a bit of a warm outlier but it also seems like you rarely bust going with the warmest guidance around DC metro.

Very nice, temps are ok?

Hey would ya look at that, actually waking up to a good Euro run. 3-6 inches wave 1 for DC and Baltimore lock it up baby.

6z Para has a snowstorm for us Saturday and another one Tuesday. Euro looks like mixed or rain for both. Let's go para!

An inch of QPF DC south, I guess we have to consider that a win.

Hour 51 ends up north of 18z

Yeah, if I had to choose I’d take the .25 QPF on the euro at 30 degrees over the 0.8 on the NAM of sleet/white rain for round 1. At 42 wave 2 is south, maybe it can make up some ground though.

I wouldn’t say it’s time to panic but it’s certainly trending towards a less impactful event. The good part is Friday is still far enough out that it’s not set in stone. Let’s hope the trends stop/reverse and we can score something decent.

Euro says enjoy your 2 inches in 48 hours lol.

Wow, midland, just googled that location you’re WAY out there in the middle of west Texas. Whats it like there? Do you like living there? Ever been down to big bend National park?

Yeah I agree. Definitely trending away from anything significant for us. At least it still *should* snow though and at least *some* of the snow *should* fall at temps resembling an actual winter storm. Notice all my qualifiers hahaha.

Supposedly the cold press is taking away our QPF but it's not actually that cold lol. I have no idea.

The NAM is annoyingly warm at the surface too, never gets DC below 32 for wave 1.

Wave 1 precip shield looks healthier on the 18z NAM....hoping it delivers.

Just using the GFS output for the sake of discussion, but I do think we will see some accumulations and not have issues sticking. Much colder airmass than the last storm thank god. Part 1: Temp at 32 for onset of precip tomorrow night 00z. Overnight 0.2 QPF with temps around 30. Part 2: Thursday daytime lull, temps in the low 30s, all the roads mostly melt out on their own. Part 3: Temp in the 20s for onset at 06z Friday. Overnight 0.2 QPF with temps falling into the lower 20s. If this scenario played out you'd see 1-3 inches in part 1 which would melt and compact a bit during the day Thursday with another 1-3 inches on top of that.

I'm not particularly invested in the arctic, just noting the output on the Euro. If I had to choose though I'd say both hahaha. Gimme a big storm followed by arctic air.

Arctic air looks muted. Our coldest day now just looks like a fairly typical cold day.

If you click through the last 5 Euro runs the trend is definitely not our friend. Trending away from anything particularly significant even in the DC metro. Of course I'd still take a 1-3 type event but it would be nice if this trend stopped now.

Hmmm this looks to be trending substantially drier from 0z with the high pressure and cold air winning out.

GFS healthier wave 1 for the whole state of Maryland

2nd wave is 0.1 from northern moco to .5 around fredericksburg.

0.6 QPF around DC, temps a touch cooler than the NAM too.