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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah buts it’s still like a few noise level shifts from a HECS.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If you consider 14 inches for dc back…..yes it’s back.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    This is what we’re saying, 100+ hours, complicated stuff. Changes will happen. Would not take this gfs forecast literally or even seriously yet but this is what can happen, powder keg situation with the arctic air. Let’s keep trending.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Small changes, we’re in the game. Stay the course people the upside potential here is big. Let’s get the euro back now.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s pretty close to going boom for us….still in the game.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I don’t see any reason to speak very definitively when you’re at approx 120 hours. People were very definitively saying our fail mode was suppression for the last storm not much beyond 120 hours. Things can and do change fast at this range. We’re still in the game.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol you must be new here. We track threats in winter. Why would we take a break? This is fun for us even when they don’t trend the way we want. We take a big break from about March 15 to Nov 15 every year.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Busted way high on temps which I’m fine with, don’t wanna worry about bursting pipes.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I’ll be watching for changes til at minimum 12z tomorrow. Pretty loaded situation in terms of potential. Models are swinging around run to run still so I don’t discount the possibility of big changes.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah it’s a miss for most to the east now, but not by that much. Also GEFS just trended the other way. It’s only Tuesday…
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Anyone know if we can access this new Google ensemble model?
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Roads are in terrible shape around here! Some roads that are normally two lanes of traffic have only one lane.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks really good, throwing precip back to the wv panhandle is a good sign.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I would LOVE 3-6 or 4-8 snow on snow in an arctic pattern with good ratios. But heck let’s get this to trend back to a blizzard, still possible.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I really don’t hate this. At 130 hours this is perfect.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Also we don’t need it all back in one run, many runs to go. We’ve seen this before, sniff something out, lose it, trend back to it.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro ai trended nw, it’s a hit. Prob a little better than 12z.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol plz, we’ve seen storms shift 500 miles in 140 hours.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    ICON is 100 miles to the right of going boom for us. Shift the trough that much and we’re good.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    They’re all long shots. That’s why they don’t happen often lol. But that’s the fun of it! If you just look at the 144 panel of ai euro you’d be pumped. does anyone have the google ensemble for 12z?
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    We can ask to be crushed by every run for 144 hours lol. But yes I agree, at this stage we need to be in the game, and we are.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EPS shows all options on the table except a cutter, nuclear tuck crush job, OTS, and coastal scraper. I like it at this range.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    At 138 the EPS has a lotta members that would work for us.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EPS looking good to me so far (90 hours) but also I am not very intelligent.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Let’s see the ensembles. It was around this time frame for this last storm that we were switching from worried about suppression to mixing. The 12z guidance keeps us in the game which is what you want at this range.
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