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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    OH wow a perfect blizzard lol......that would be nice.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Crazy Uncle looks like it smoked the good stuff at 12z. The ptype shows snow way down SW of DC at 18z. Way different look. Would be much snowier.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    CMC looks nice and thumpy. 8 inches for DC and a foot for the favored spots NW.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    When does the GFS fold like a cheap suit and show 4 inches for dc? 18z or 0z?
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    06z run, it's kinda the boom scenario model for us right now. Big dumping of heavy snow before the transition.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    RGEM is a pummeling, it's 1.4 QPF by 18z for DC with 0.7 falling in the 3 hour period 15z-18z. If we can get that kinda death band right before the change we could def get double digits in the metros.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I think it’s just the ptype algorithm from the vendor, no meteorologists are forecasting much IP for dc.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    People here in dc are so confused, my co worker INSISTS Richmond is getting two feet. People here think we’re getting 12-18 inches in dc.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Most of our mixing events over the years are snow to sleet to rain to 40+ degrees. This is a pretty cool and unique event with a very anomalous arctic airmass. The fact that plain rain isn’t even in the discussion is cool. Even if we “only” get 4-5 inches in dc and then ice and then arctic cold it’s still going to be awesome. True deep winter stuff coming.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I think that’s just the vendor ptype algorithm. I wouldn’t take it too seriously. NWS hasn’t even mentioned big ice potential for our area.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    6 inches to ice would be a very high impact and memorable event for the 95 corridor. Enjoy it!
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I think now we can basically lock in mixing at least up to the M/D line and now we just hope the mesos hammer us with the thump. Hopefully the RGEM over the NAM is correct.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks like noise level stuff. Same general idea all over.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    NAM is only 0.4 qpf for dc pre flip, ive learned that when the NAM shows a mixing related disaster scenario, take it seriously. Not saying its gonna happen, hopefully its still figuring out the Synoptics, but don’t write it off.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    For dc Euro looks like about 0.8 qpf as snow, and then 0.6 qpf as sleet. 6-10 of snow and a thick layer of sleet, that’ll be a high impact event if it verifies.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Good euro run for the northern tier, keeps them all snow basically the whole storm. Let’s get another shift.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah who knows, I mean realistically with these complicated wave interactions you can get shifts up until 48 and even beyond but it just feels like they don’t shift back south very much.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Imagine we actually get the euro to trend back to something better? Has that ever happened with a mix event? Trends back colder towards game time.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I’ll sell my soul for the GFS man it is pretty
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    In a mixing event for our area the best thing to do is just take the guidance with the fastest flip. It usually ends up being right. GFS is smoking the good stuff.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol gfs gonna keep showing this and then fold like a cheap suit 8 hours before the event
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yea it really does, feels Like it never trends the way we want towards game time. But yeah it’s been pretty low snow for 10 years now.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    SE of 95 4-8 DC 6-10 NW 8-14 Seems like a pretty easy call and if DC gets 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet that'll seem like 6-10 anyway based on impact.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    NAM is a little faster which I actually like, let's get all this precip in here before we lose thermals.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Normally with our phasing storms its reasonably clear how the ridge axis, timing of phasing, heights out in front, will affect the outcome but with this one it's been really hard to guess.
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