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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    ICON is better than its 12z run. More precip up to us.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Scrolling through the 500 maps between all the models the NAM isn’t *that* different. I think this just illustrates that the changes to make this big aren’t that large.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    What time are we expecting those damaging winds to come through the metros? 4pm ish?
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I agree, def not far from where we need to be at 100 hours.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If this storm comes back I will call it the sign here now storm.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    You've got the 6Z precip map there sir.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    At 96 hours the average NHC forecast error for hurricanes is 150 ish miles. There is plenty of room for this to hit us big time still.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Let @Scraffdo it he had good mojo this morning.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Still a pretty healthy WAA shield with cold temps.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If this one totally fails it’s almost spring anyway. Another or week or two and if nothing pops up we can start looking ahead to the first 70 degree days.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Soaked ground and 60 mph winds, stay away from the big trees today.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Just looking at 6Z euro on TT, if I just woke up from a one week coma and saw that I’d be really pumped. You can still see it does a pivot with precip shield 6Z-12Z Thursday. This will not take a lot of work whatsoever to get this back to a big event for everyone in our sub.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I believe that came north at the last minute right?
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I mean this with no disrespect but I think u might need to take a little break from models and posting lololol.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The atmosphere was always going to do what it was going to do. The only thing that’s changing is computer simulations. Chasing the model simulations is only fun if you don’t take them too seriously.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s not the likeliest thing (to have the GFS win out) but it happens from time to time. Also, still 100 hours out so a lot can change.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks pretty good for a solid cold storm. Now maybe we can creep it back towards something a bit beefier. Still time.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Oh nice billy strings!!! Love that guy.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    We are basically a modeling error away from a HECS at 120 hours according to the Euro, and if u ask me it’s in the preferred direction for a phasing event like this. It’s fine with me. There are a million alternatives that are worse.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I agree, this feels like that medium range time slot where sometimes they lose it and bring it back to what they were originally showing in the 6-7 day range. We’ll see. I’ll be happy if we can get a cold accumulating snow.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If the euro looks like GFS we are gonna have to do a temporary pause on posting like when they turn the stock market off lololol.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    @Solution Mansign here now for ICON
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    No it’s lower resolution, it takes like hours upon hours of a super computer just to do the euro run once, to run 50 permutations they have to lower it I think just because of computing power limits.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    In fairness the 114 panel of the euro IS folks worthy.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The operational Euro making a large shift with the track of the storm tells me we should rely a little heavier on the ensembles until it steadies. But I like how each operational perturbation the last few days still gets us a MECS.
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