SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Pretty good agreement between GFS op and Euro op for 10 days out!

Agree, nothing is showing less than 0.5 QPF before a change over and ratios should be decent or better.

You're in a good spot for this one. I hope you get 18 inches. I'll be happy with my 6-10+ plus ice.

It's basically 8-10 for everyone and then a bunch of sleet and freezing rain.

AIGFS has the primary in WV vs. legacy GFS Georgia/Alabama border. What's 800 miles between friends lol?

CMC appears to nod to the GFS with a slightly weaker primary and the mix line not making it as far north....still mixes for all of us though.

GFS is a later changeover and a change back to snow. Weaker and further south primary low. At 84 hours Euro has 1002 in TN and GFS has 1006 on the Georgia/Alabama border.

as depicted here this would be heavy sleet/frz rain, this would really do a number on the roads to finish off the storm. As others have alluded to would be really nice to trend this whole coastal south 50-100 miles and have this be powder.

You're gonna drive clear across our subforum during the peak of this storm? Driving in this area with 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates is taking your life in your hands lol. I don't trust anyone around here in snow to drive safely.

It was discussed a few pages ago.

Too early for this I know and the mesos will do better but the soundings for DCA on the Euro look like heavily rimed snow to me for a lot of Sunday when we're under pink, only later on Sunday is it a clear ice sounding.

Jeez, these are gaudy. Is this an artifact of questionable precip algorithm or does it think that much snow for real?

Both the Euro and GFS are very acceptable. The forecast for dc reads like a forecast for anchorage Alaska. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Saturday A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Sunday Snow and sleet. High near 23. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 4.

Also waking up to NWS talking about 15 or 18 to 1 ratios with the snow initially. It’s gonna pile up fast.

QPF bomb, u love to see it. Let’s get like 1.2 down in dc before the ice.

If the euro is right about the freezing rain, foot of snow in dc and then a bunch of freezing rain and then into the ice box…this region will be shut down. Is its sleet/frz rain algo usually good?

Looks like a hold with mostly just noise difference, thought it was coming in colder but just a bit slower. Good run, double digits in dc.

6Z euro looks to be colder too.

Toggling the 850 anomaly it looks like a noticeable shift colder.

How did the AI euro look? Off the TT maps looks to have trended slightly warmer but not sure if that made a difference.

Very amped, we would not love that.

Yeah just bleeding each run but like I said, moderate to perhaps still heavy snow and then ice without any plain rain is still fun. I meant those big boy runs were getting away from us on the coastal plain.

Absolutely, once you say welp it’s gonna be a wintry cold ass mess I’ll just enjoy that it’s More fun.

Really continuous trending the wrong way now, if we can stop the bleeding at 0z and preserve our 6-10 in dc metro id be pumped. But usually these keep bleeding north. But you never know!

Moderate snow storm to ice and then extreme cold is still awesome I am not being a Deb but that’s how it looks now for dc metro. Of course it can trend back colder but usually it seems like they don’t.