SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Decent model agreement of a low amplitude shortwave moving across the southern Mid-Atlantic Friday as high pressure retreats offshore. Uncertainties arise in how far north the precipitation will make it. Almost all ensemble and deterministic guidance has enough cold air in place to favor all snow in our FA should moisture make it this far north. There are a few outliers that have rain across the far S of the FA. FWIW, snow and ice has trended up slightly over the past couple of runs. While amounts are forecast to generally be light (an inch or two, perhaps three should a higher end solution verify), the northward shift is notable. Looking at clusters featuring the greatest variance (EOF) regarding amplitude does suggest additional northward expansion is possible. Just something to keep in mind.

Very close, at least we have some pre Christmas potential, that is more than we can say a lot of years.

12z ICON says no dice for Friday. No precip close to us.

12z NAM looks great for a light event!

Euro and euro AI sucked with this event btw, Euro Ai ensemble snow output had dc with like 5 inches up until a few days ago.

It’s a nice heavy rain though at least, been dry AF maybe we can carry the trend of more qpf into winter storm season.

That looks pretty nice, very cold for early December.

Always we need to wait til we have very established cold to have a chance. With a warmer base state due to climate change I feel like hedging towards warm sloppy mess for the metros makes sense, especially early season.

Wow ai ensembles lol. Absolute eye candy. Do I fall for it? Hook line and sinker!!! U know the drill.

Nice 12-18 event for dc and Maryland. Nbd.

bz South now per space weather

Nice sunset though, oh well if that bZ flips maybe I’ll head out too.

Is spaceweatherlive the best site for tracking the CME in real time?

Is tonight's supposed to be a little stronger? I might try to head over to Rock Creek Park where at least it's not sooooo bright. Perhaps on the golf course I could find a spot with a view of the northern sky.

The blue sky snow is a weird phenomenon! I see it on the drive to and from Canaan valley during upslope as well. Usually around like 1/2 way to the hill to the ridge.

I can see it through my phone on 10 second exposure now in takoma park with tons of light pollution.

Pictures from Maryland and Illinois on Twitter.

BZ says -50 on space weather?!? Is that right?

Melissa looks so incredibly mean on the satellite…..hope it doesn’t totally destroy the island.

Looks pretty impressive on satellite though.

Nice and breezy and fall like at least! I’ll take it over our usual October weather of 87 and humid.

GFS is just warming up to get waxed all winter by the Euro.

There is a chance of a coastal storm, if the storm takes a track we all would prefer we get a nice stormy sunday and maybe monday, if the storm slides east a bit maybe just some light rain or drizzle. You'll have to wait and see! Or you could follow every model suite like we do lol.

It would be nice to get a proper nor easter. I really can't remember when was the last good fall nor easter......when was it?

Everything looks pretty similar with the GFS and Euro at 500h but the Euro has a dual low setup at the surface and picks the wrong one (if you want rain) and GFS is more consolidated.