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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Good euro run for the northern tier, keeps them all snow basically the whole storm. Let’s get another shift.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah who knows, I mean realistically with these complicated wave interactions you can get shifts up until 48 and even beyond but it just feels like they don’t shift back south very much.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Imagine we actually get the euro to trend back to something better? Has that ever happened with a mix event? Trends back colder towards game time.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I’ll sell my soul for the GFS man it is pretty
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    In a mixing event for our area the best thing to do is just take the guidance with the fastest flip. It usually ends up being right. GFS is smoking the good stuff.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol gfs gonna keep showing this and then fold like a cheap suit 8 hours before the event
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yea it really does, feels Like it never trends the way we want towards game time. But yeah it’s been pretty low snow for 10 years now.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    SE of 95 4-8 DC 6-10 NW 8-14 Seems like a pretty easy call and if DC gets 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet that'll seem like 6-10 anyway based on impact.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    NAM is a little faster which I actually like, let's get all this precip in here before we lose thermals.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Normally with our phasing storms its reasonably clear how the ridge axis, timing of phasing, heights out in front, will affect the outcome but with this one it's been really hard to guess.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Watching the NAM come out having no clue if the changes at 500 are good or bad.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    That's one thing I love not seeing on the models. The absolute worst thing the models can show is the WAA precip going north to PA and we don't get anything. In this situation it appears we will most likely get the WAA precip even if things shift either north or south.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah, agree. We should be able to get a warning level snow even if the north creep continues. Which is great! We go years without warning level snows...
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I wonder how accurate these ptype algos are? Tons of freezing rain on these things....
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    AI is 0.4 QPF by 12z and then 0.8 by 18z in DC. Changeover in between, implies about 6-10 inches in DC with ratios. Kinda the lower end of what guidance has been showing but acceptable nonetheless.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Most of our area is 0.8-1.0 QPF before a change on crazy uncle ukie so pick your ratio! Could be a foot with decent ratios IMO.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    This is a QPF bomb so it is possible we get a foot of snow AND a ton of sleet. If we change over quicker maybe 6-8 inches and then sleet. Nothing is showing less than 6 inches of snow before a changeover. The later the changeover, the more we can pile up.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Pretty good agreement between GFS op and Euro op for 10 days out!
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Agree, nothing is showing less than 0.5 QPF before a change over and ratios should be decent or better.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    You're in a good spot for this one. I hope you get 18 inches. I'll be happy with my 6-10+ plus ice.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It's basically 8-10 for everyone and then a bunch of sleet and freezing rain.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    AIGFS has the primary in WV vs. legacy GFS Georgia/Alabama border. What's 800 miles between friends lol?
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    CMC appears to nod to the GFS with a slightly weaker primary and the mix line not making it as far north....still mixes for all of us though.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS is a later changeover and a change back to snow. Weaker and further south primary low. At 84 hours Euro has 1002 in TN and GFS has 1006 on the Georgia/Alabama border.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    as depicted here this would be heavy sleet/frz rain, this would really do a number on the roads to finish off the storm. As others have alluded to would be really nice to trend this whole coastal south 50-100 miles and have this be powder.
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