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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The confluence backed north a little at hour 54, maybe a little less suppressive ?
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    This is what I liked about the EPS this morning, the 90 hour 6-he qpf map has beefier precip further west into southern va and western nc.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Basically you and I think are in the same boat to some extent, we need to hope the GFS is right and then bump it north 50-100 miles. Maybe that is a miracle I’m asking for lol.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I think if it looks the same tomorrow then we’re in the “we need a miracle” stage, but for now still in the game.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I think today is the day for me where we need to see the trends continue towards us. Hopefully we can get some at 12z! Still right at the edge of the time frame where we can get a decent shift north on the guidance.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    CMC bombs the low to 951 once they merge.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    At least this storm it’s more clear what we need to see at 500. Last storm our ability to tell if a run was good or bad was like zero until the surface maps dropped of the actual storm.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    NAM looked like it was about to crush us. so I went and looked on southernwx and it appears one guy downloaded 6 of the 68 member weathernext ensemble before the download glitched. He says all 6 look good for their region and the latest one he posted looks like a blizzard for us.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Oh lord that can’t possibly be the mean is it???
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol we are asking ai to tell us about ai models. What a world!
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    There is some pretty interesting discussion in the New England forum about this. I’ve been reading Mets in there since the models lost this yesterday explaining why it would come back. They seem pretty confident it’s not done trending.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I’ll be really interested to see those plots. What’s good for the south, to some extent, is probably good for us.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    For some reason I’m feeling that way too, we’ll see!
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s just not that far from a big storm for us, no reason to jump ship completely.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah buts it’s still like a few noise level shifts from a HECS.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If you consider 14 inches for dc back…..yes it’s back.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    This is what we’re saying, 100+ hours, complicated stuff. Changes will happen. Would not take this gfs forecast literally or even seriously yet but this is what can happen, powder keg situation with the arctic air. Let’s keep trending.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Small changes, we’re in the game. Stay the course people the upside potential here is big. Let’s get the euro back now.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s pretty close to going boom for us….still in the game.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I don’t see any reason to speak very definitively when you’re at approx 120 hours. People were very definitively saying our fail mode was suppression for the last storm not much beyond 120 hours. Things can and do change fast at this range. We’re still in the game.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol you must be new here. We track threats in winter. Why would we take a break? This is fun for us even when they don’t trend the way we want. We take a big break from about March 15 to Nov 15 every year.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Busted way high on temps which I’m fine with, don’t wanna worry about bursting pipes.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I’ll be watching for changes til at minimum 12z tomorrow. Pretty loaded situation in terms of potential. Models are swinging around run to run still so I don’t discount the possibility of big changes.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah it’s a miss for most to the east now, but not by that much. Also GEFS just trended the other way. It’s only Tuesday…
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Anyone know if we can access this new Google ensemble model?
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