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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah it hasn’t been great but we actually have a chance at a decent period.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    With a little supporting cast it seems, the time to piss and moan is when we get a rug pull at 72 hours, not when it looks pretty ripe a week to 10 days out.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EPS Looks good for next weekend, why the panic already? We’re 7 days out. We know ops almost never lock into a solution 7 days out.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    This ensemble mean was absolutely high on drugs though earlier this winter, it was showing like 6 inches when it was clear we were getting nothing. Hopefully this time it’s onto something.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Seems like the euro folded like a cheap suit to the GFS/rgem/ai models which had this idea earlier.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Ai euro has plenty of snow chances through 240, gonna be a fun period i think.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Whatever this shows exactly the potential for a major winter storm is there. Remember everyone, a 200 hour map will change a lot. As depicted this would be a major ice storm for us.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Radar looks good for dc now, should be a nice burst.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    6Z euro trending west with Sunday event. I guess the GFS/AI’s were on to something!
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    All operational guidance has the same general idea for the 7-15 day period. Colder than normal temps with waves of moisture sliding west to east. Hopefully we can get that boundary in the right place.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EURO AI has precip the 24th with marginal surface temps for DC and then again on the 28th except colder.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro AI is west of 6z even.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I'm so sick of that. Lets see some 1.0 QPF type stuff for once.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I like the look of what the CMC appears to be cooking up for next weekend, cold as balls with multiple waves of moisture...
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS way different run to run with the potential overrunning next weekend, definitely will be looking to the ensembles to get a better idea.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I dunno why I even look at it. Especially for long range when it can’t get under 72 hours right.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Based on my observations this season in general warmth has trended a little colder this year once we’re inside of 5 days so I’m not mad seeing the boundary modeled a little north.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro OP has a 1pm temp of 5 degrees in DC the day after the storm.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EURO AI says enjoy your cold and then rain.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I'm not totally punting this threat until 00z tonight. We've seen things trend way north/west when we needed them not to around this range many times over the years. There isn't a big arctic high crushing the flow south like our usual smoking cirrus NC get crushed events, so maybe we can actually get lucky.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    So what’s our next window? Jan 25 for a potential SWFE?
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s getting pretty tiresome, put me on reaper watch. I’m a few fizzled threats away from talking about cherry blossoms.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS shows a hit for us with a bigger storm along the coast, nothing else really supports it. We are praying for it to score a coup for once.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    There do appear to be some h5 changes afoot on the Euro, I'll leave it to the experts and not try to extrapolate.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    AI Euro not enthused
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