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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    We are just so used to it being right but it has been dethroned imo. I think there’s a better chance it trends to the AI than vice versa.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    To me this looks fantastic, doesn’t look like a miller b screw job at all type map. Let’s lock this in.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I dunno why people think the ICON at 100+ hours will be consistent. Let’s keep the ai ensembles on our side til Thursday, get the EPS on board tonight or tomorrow, and then dial the ops in Thursday and Friday.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Anyone have the weathernext? Would love to know how that’s been trending.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The least ai can do for us accurately depict a miller b at 5 day lead before it eventually enslaves us and turns us into batteries.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GEPS looks better at 12z too.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Not worried about the euro, it’s been getting slapped around by its ai cousin from this range all winter. I’m more just worried about the ai shifting this whole thing northeast as we get closer which of course could happen.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    AI ensembles look better to me, better MSLP with more west leaning members.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    AI ensembles look more juiced through 120, let’s see if that translates for us.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Agree we’ve been burned many times waiting for dynamic cooling, it’s never a guarantee. Hopefully we can actually get this low cranking to make it happen. Ai ensembles out yet? Or perhaps the weathernext? Would like to have those two on our side.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    We get it....we all know how this can fail for us, but what do you expect us to do? Not track the storm with the models showing a foot of snow for us? Where's the fun in that? Let us enjoy this, most likely the last big chance of the year. If it fails it fails so be it, but we're still in the game as of 12z.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If you just toggle all the op runs on TT it's pretty crazy the agreement for low position around 138 hours.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It's our last chance...just gonna roll the dice and then root for spring if nothing else pops up soon after.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    CMC is 2.6 QPF for dc, let's just bomb this thing out and hope we get crashing 850s in the CCB.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I'd sign for the CMC now! It's not a bad run and somehow gets us heavy snow despite the primary going to WV.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    This is the known hazard of living in the mid atlantic for miller B's, it can (and mostly does!) happen but lets see, there have been times where it has worked for us. Hopefully the Euro AI continues with beefy CCB for us. Also like seeing that weathernext on our side.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol if we get CCB and it’s 42 oh well we can’t win
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    AI gfs looks good gets us with CCB
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    While hopefully not correct the ICON is a realistic fail scenario with the coastal bombing just a tad too late for us. Again, not saying this is going to happen or that the ICON is a good model but it's a realistic way this could not work out for us.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Little early to worried about ratios, gimme this precip distribution all day any day.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I think if the Euro AI has the right idea (big if of course) we are going to have crashing 850s and really good ratios for the CCB. Surface temps will cooperate with that storm position in February.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Damn that looks fantastic. Soooo hard not to get roped in with these looks lol. Oh well may as well push all the chips in because this is probably our last big chance anyway. If it fails we can track the nice sustained warm up for spring.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah of course that could be the final outcome, but it’s just not to see the ops advertising that.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    One thing I will note is the that right now nothing is showing our typical miller b fail scenario, the more dud runs are south, not north, which I think is good. If the models were showing us getting skipped north every other run I’d be mad nervous.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Such a good run…..this is gonna be stressful to watch for the next few days. It will good to keep in mind miller B crush job DC to BOS isn’t common and there is a chance we end up on the outside looking in. That said, let’s keep this right where it is LFG!!!!!
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