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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I think that’s just the vendor ptype algorithm. I wouldn’t take it too seriously. NWS hasn’t even mentioned big ice potential for our area.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    6 inches to ice would be a very high impact and memorable event for the 95 corridor. Enjoy it!
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I think now we can basically lock in mixing at least up to the M/D line and now we just hope the mesos hammer us with the thump. Hopefully the RGEM over the NAM is correct.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks like noise level stuff. Same general idea all over.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    NAM is only 0.4 qpf for dc pre flip, ive learned that when the NAM shows a mixing related disaster scenario, take it seriously. Not saying its gonna happen, hopefully its still figuring out the Synoptics, but don’t write it off.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    For dc Euro looks like about 0.8 qpf as snow, and then 0.6 qpf as sleet. 6-10 of snow and a thick layer of sleet, that’ll be a high impact event if it verifies.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Good euro run for the northern tier, keeps them all snow basically the whole storm. Let’s get another shift.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah who knows, I mean realistically with these complicated wave interactions you can get shifts up until 48 and even beyond but it just feels like they don’t shift back south very much.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Imagine we actually get the euro to trend back to something better? Has that ever happened with a mix event? Trends back colder towards game time.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I’ll sell my soul for the GFS man it is pretty
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    In a mixing event for our area the best thing to do is just take the guidance with the fastest flip. It usually ends up being right. GFS is smoking the good stuff.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol gfs gonna keep showing this and then fold like a cheap suit 8 hours before the event
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yea it really does, feels Like it never trends the way we want towards game time. But yeah it’s been pretty low snow for 10 years now.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    SE of 95 4-8 DC 6-10 NW 8-14 Seems like a pretty easy call and if DC gets 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet that'll seem like 6-10 anyway based on impact.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    NAM is a little faster which I actually like, let's get all this precip in here before we lose thermals.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Normally with our phasing storms its reasonably clear how the ridge axis, timing of phasing, heights out in front, will affect the outcome but with this one it's been really hard to guess.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Watching the NAM come out having no clue if the changes at 500 are good or bad.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    That's one thing I love not seeing on the models. The absolute worst thing the models can show is the WAA precip going north to PA and we don't get anything. In this situation it appears we will most likely get the WAA precip even if things shift either north or south.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah, agree. We should be able to get a warning level snow even if the north creep continues. Which is great! We go years without warning level snows...
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I wonder how accurate these ptype algos are? Tons of freezing rain on these things....
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    AI is 0.4 QPF by 12z and then 0.8 by 18z in DC. Changeover in between, implies about 6-10 inches in DC with ratios. Kinda the lower end of what guidance has been showing but acceptable nonetheless.
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Most of our area is 0.8-1.0 QPF before a change on crazy uncle ukie so pick your ratio! Could be a foot with decent ratios IMO.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    This is a QPF bomb so it is possible we get a foot of snow AND a ton of sleet. If we change over quicker maybe 6-8 inches and then sleet. Nothing is showing less than 6 inches of snow before a changeover. The later the changeover, the more we can pile up.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Pretty good agreement between GFS op and Euro op for 10 days out!
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Agree, nothing is showing less than 0.5 QPF before a change over and ratios should be decent or better.
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