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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Ah the time between the 18z and 0z runs, when @mitchnickposts every crappy model known to man .
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I prefer to wait until some model actually shows mixing to worry about mixing lol.
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah I’m just saying there’s like 30+ members with really good solutions at this time I’m not sweating the 4 too amped and 4 suppressed or whatever it is. Especially not when pretty much every model supports the EPS.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    There are very few amped solutions that really skunk dc, maybe like 4 in there? But even those have the 6 inch line running basically through dc.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    lol take the fight about hypothetical mixing on future runs to banter if it’s not actual analysis. Euro is perfect.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I am also being asked a million questions, I always hedge, plenty of time to go bigger if you need to. At this juncture I told them I “am reasonably confident” of a 4-8 inch storm but also reminded them that storms have vanished in this time frame before. Then tomorrow or Thursday if the good models are still showing a big storm add some.
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EPS looks fantastic, def trended slightly NW with the precip and a little more QPF from its 0z run. Wiggle room. Probably not a ton of whiffs in the members if I had to guess.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro looks fantastic with the front end thump which is the "easy" part for us typically which is great to see. I don't get expect the details of the phasing/potential coastal influence to be figured out til about Friday morning.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah it will, the good thing is even in a less phasey solution we're most likely gonna snow. Very likely we get at least a moderate hit. The extra coastal stuff will take more time to be resolved.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EURO AI basically noise level changes, still a great MSLP track for us and potential upside if it can slow down and get some coastal influence.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GEFS through 90 looks like it would be less suppressive than the op, baja low ejecting faster and less confluence out front.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    yeah we get fantastic overrunning and a tad bit of coastal....if we can get that to capture/tuck that's the big dog scenario.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    CMC is fantastic but it misses the full phase/tuck scenario. But for the record I would sign for the CMC in a heartbeat.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    AI GFS sticking to its idea of no phase and a more southerly track.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah but it's close enough for me at this range! Breezy and 15 inches of snow is almost as close to a blizzard as we get around here.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    ICON Blizzard
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Also if you use the beta version on the phone you have access to 6Z and 18z euros
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I think the trends on the Euro the last 2 runs will probably continue and you will be happy. The big NAO settling in this weekend should slow things down and promote phasing. The look at 144 on 6z euro with a deepening low off Hatteras moving basically north with fresh arctic air in place is the kinda thing that we don't see often and can really offer us a lot of QPF with fantastic ratios.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    If it can turn the corner the way it’s showing on 6Z euro this could be a 1 to 2 foot type deal for our subforum. Then we can talk about wind too as the coastal deepens.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    The low is basically going just east of north last 2 panels of 6Z euro, LFG!!!!
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Beautiful look, delayed but not denied
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Kuchera is 16.5 for dc, you would think we could actually get some decent ratios here on the northern side of this.
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Yeah would you think 3-6 more minimum
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I’d be really interested to see the next few frames of the euro. 500 map is intriguing I wonder if a secondary low pops.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro has like 8+ inches in dc with the back edge still in Missouri. Yes please.
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