SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Yea it really does, feels Like it never trends the way we want towards game time. But yeah it’s been pretty low snow for 10 years now.

SE of 95 4-8 DC 6-10 NW 8-14 Seems like a pretty easy call and if DC gets 4 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet that'll seem like 6-10 anyway based on impact.

NAM is a little faster which I actually like, let's get all this precip in here before we lose thermals.

Normally with our phasing storms its reasonably clear how the ridge axis, timing of phasing, heights out in front, will affect the outcome but with this one it's been really hard to guess.

Watching the NAM come out having no clue if the changes at 500 are good or bad.

That's one thing I love not seeing on the models. The absolute worst thing the models can show is the WAA precip going north to PA and we don't get anything. In this situation it appears we will most likely get the WAA precip even if things shift either north or south.

Yeah, agree. We should be able to get a warning level snow even if the north creep continues. Which is great! We go years without warning level snows...

Yeah I wonder how accurate these ptype algos are? Tons of freezing rain on these things....

AI is 0.4 QPF by 12z and then 0.8 by 18z in DC. Changeover in between, implies about 6-10 inches in DC with ratios. Kinda the lower end of what guidance has been showing but acceptable nonetheless.

Most of our area is 0.8-1.0 QPF before a change on crazy uncle ukie so pick your ratio! Could be a foot with decent ratios IMO.

This is a QPF bomb so it is possible we get a foot of snow AND a ton of sleet. If we change over quicker maybe 6-8 inches and then sleet. Nothing is showing less than 6 inches of snow before a changeover. The later the changeover, the more we can pile up.

Pretty good agreement between GFS op and Euro op for 10 days out!

Agree, nothing is showing less than 0.5 QPF before a change over and ratios should be decent or better.

You're in a good spot for this one. I hope you get 18 inches. I'll be happy with my 6-10+ plus ice.

It's basically 8-10 for everyone and then a bunch of sleet and freezing rain.

AIGFS has the primary in WV vs. legacy GFS Georgia/Alabama border. What's 800 miles between friends lol?

CMC appears to nod to the GFS with a slightly weaker primary and the mix line not making it as far north....still mixes for all of us though.

GFS is a later changeover and a change back to snow. Weaker and further south primary low. At 84 hours Euro has 1002 in TN and GFS has 1006 on the Georgia/Alabama border.

as depicted here this would be heavy sleet/frz rain, this would really do a number on the roads to finish off the storm. As others have alluded to would be really nice to trend this whole coastal south 50-100 miles and have this be powder.

You're gonna drive clear across our subforum during the peak of this storm? Driving in this area with 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates is taking your life in your hands lol. I don't trust anyone around here in snow to drive safely.

It was discussed a few pages ago.

Too early for this I know and the mesos will do better but the soundings for DCA on the Euro look like heavily rimed snow to me for a lot of Sunday when we're under pink, only later on Sunday is it a clear ice sounding.

Jeez, these are gaudy. Is this an artifact of questionable precip algorithm or does it think that much snow for real?

Both the Euro and GFS are very acceptable. The forecast for dc reads like a forecast for anchorage Alaska. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -3. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Saturday A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. North wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Sunday Snow and sleet. High near 23. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 4.

Also waking up to NWS talking about 15 or 18 to 1 ratios with the snow initially. It’s gonna pile up fast.