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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark

  1. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I'm not totally punting this threat until 00z tonight. We've seen things trend way north/west when we needed them not to around this range many times over the years. There isn't a big arctic high crushing the flow south like our usual smoking cirrus NC get crushed events, so maybe we can actually get lucky.
  2. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    So what’s our next window? Jan 25 for a potential SWFE?
  3. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’s getting pretty tiresome, put me on reaper watch. I’m a few fizzled threats away from talking about cherry blossoms.
  4. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GFS shows a hit for us with a bigger storm along the coast, nothing else really supports it. We are praying for it to score a coup for once.
  5. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    There do appear to be some h5 changes afoot on the Euro, I'll leave it to the experts and not try to extrapolate.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    AI Euro not enthused
  7. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Just looking at the Euro since 12z yesterday it has trended closer to the coast by about 225 miles. We will need at least that much additional adjustment to score. I'm hoping for it all at once at 12z.
  8. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    UK says no dice, escapes out to sea.
  9. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    GEFS with a lot more members closer to the coast, so it's not just op.
  10. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It's closer, light snow over DC at 102.
  11. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Nice hit for us, as usual we need to wait for other support.
  12. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    EURO ai gets some precip to us this weekend.
  13. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I've also wondered about this. It just seems like a really bad area for snow. Have to keep going to Canaan Valley.
  14. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Def a good pattern for SWFE shaping up for end of January. Hopefully we can cash in a big qpf one that hammers the whole forum.
  15. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks better than 6z, trough is further west and digging further south.
  16. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks kinda like it should snow on us based on the gfs progression.
  17. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    It’ll be interesting to see if we can pull off what the euro is showing for Thursday night. I feel like we had something similar in maybe 2018 or 2019 where we had a coastal pop like that and we got like 10 inches in dc metro but not much north of here. I think in that one it was all snow and there was a gap between round 1 and round 2 and then the radar blossomed right over us.
  18. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Normally a low over Baltimore is no bueno for us but since this guy is moving basically due east perhaps can still work.
  19. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    I agree with @stormtracker that an area wide 3-5 would be better than this narrow nonsense, but we have to take what we can get! Just happy it trended in our sub forum at all though.
  20. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Def, but being in the Jack zone at 100+ hours, rarely does it hold. Expect this to wobble a bunch until we get to about 48. But I think someone in our forum jacks.
  21. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    What could go wrong?
  22. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    We all know the drill, when the GFS is showing a big storm without support in a marginal airmass, it’s most likely not correct. But hey, u never know!!
  23. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Euro is close but without cold air we’re relying on the storm bombing out in the right spot to bring in enough cold air, like the GFS shows.
  24. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    There is shockingly good agreement in the operational models for the January 18/19 storm for 200+ hours.
  25. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Very close for 150+ hours, changes will happen. We’re in the game.
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