SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Yes it would worry me more if the NAM was in line with everything and then started trending away within 48 hours. This run appears to be a slight trend towards the globals with a better push of colder air at higher levels to start. Of course this season you never go wrong choosing the warmest model so there's that too.

Quick flip to sleet, substantial warm nose at 700, but trending better.

Changes incoming on the NAM, high pressure in a better location. better press of cold at 700/850 at 36 hours.

Southern stream moisture will get drawn into this system, and with Canadian high pressure to the north, that provides a good setup for wintry precipitation. There is an anomalous upper- level ridge over the southeastern CONUS, so that does favor a setup for a wintry mix for most areas vs. all snow. Precipitation is most likely to overspread the area from southwest to northeast late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. A potent jetmax along with southern stream moisture suggests that moderate to heavy precipitation is possible shortly after the onset. This can be seen in most guidance in the form of a strong jetmax at the mid-levels that has origin from the Gulf of Mexico. There is still some uncertainty as to exactly where this band of heavier precipitation sets up. Temperature profiles do appear cold enough for snow at the onset for most areas, therefore, significant snowfall is possible before changing over the a wintry mix. The best chance for the heavier snow appears to be across the northwestern half of the CWA (where colder temps aloft will hold on longer, and where most of the guidance has the original band of heavier snow setting up). A dry slot may cause precipitation rates to decrease some Thursday afternoon, but more overrunning Thursday night will cause more wintry precipitation to develop. With warmer air aloft, sleet and freezing rain will become more likely during this time (although snow will hold for a while in the Allegheny Mountains and Potomac Highlands). Significant ice accumulation from freezing rain is possible, especially near and east of Interstate 95 into central Virginia. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the entire CWA for these reasons.

Borderline all snow for DC

Well that was better than 0z for just about everyone.

Looks a lot more coastal like with the precip shield at 54.

UK is a nice thump with DC hanging on to freezing at 700, 850, and 925 at 18z Thursday. Focuses heaviest precip south of DC.

Teens Friday night, high in the 20s Saturday, single digits for many Saturday night on the GFS. Would be a nice wintry weekend with the fresh snow pack if it played out like this.

GFS does it too, changes Baltimore and north back over to snow at the end.

Yeah, it looks like they must cool off quickly on the next as the precip starts though so I deleted the post because it doesn't seem to be an important variable.

Haven't been following this threat as closely but wow at how much colder on the surface it has trended. GFS keeps the metros below freezing through 12z Friday. As of yesterday 12z it was looking like we might get above freezing by 00z Friday.

Hey where’s @losetoa6 been? I thought he’d be all over this storm.

Globals giving us a snowstorm and the NAM giving us a squall line Thursday night lol. If it were any other season I'd be laughing at the NAM.

Dang, that menu looks good. About to order this soon from the college park location. Tempura green beans are an intriguing side dish.

I am partial to burger fi because we have one right in silver spring....their onion rings are legit.

I'm ready for a nice gully washer. After 3 years of dealing with a flooding basement and trying to solve the problem via landscaping, sloping terrain away from house, improving drainage, etc I gave up and got a sump pump/french drain system installed. Now I can go ahead and root for the heaviest rain possible and not have to worry about my basement.

Hopefully what makes it different is it won't start trending away from us in the next 24-48 hours! The last disaster was supposed to be a Wed-Fri event and the Euro/EPS was showing 8-12 inches for us as late as Monday before the event before it started trending to crap.

7 inches at 18z and still snowing in DC....

It's a pretty substantial run to run shift comparing 12z to 00z.

I like how this is still trending run to run in the right direction. Please don't stop!!!

Yes I'm glad you have the history to prove it! Front end thumps with cold temps to start are actually one of the situations that are pretty straightforward and we are less likely to fail in imo. We're not waiting for a column to cool dependent upon ridiculous rates.

GFS is a front end crush job. 6+ inches for DC by 15z before changeover.

Yessir! Frozen precip all the way into NC.

This is kind of a garbage post. You're not considering or analyzing the synoptic evolution or antecedent airmass. You're just saying "we always fail". I've lived in the DC area since 2009 and there have been quite a few good storms that don't fit your narrative.