SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Everything posted by SomeguyfromTakomaPark
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Yes I agree it would be ideal . So what are we looking at for duration of frozen preciptation in our area if this GFS/NAM scenario plays out? It changes over sometime between 48-54 and is outta here by 60 basically. That would imply some impressive rates for a couple hours at least if the GFS qpf is close.
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Wow looking at those GFS snow maps it must have the surface cooling just as the heavy ULL precip starts. Would be an unbelievably awesome scenario if that really happened.
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Does anyone have the surface temps for 48 and 54? Certainly looks like it crashes at 850 in a hurry based on the progression of the 0c 850 line.
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Wow verbatim that would be a 5+ inch snowfall from DC south through Central VA. Seems too good to be true.
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I wouldn't worry about that yet. If the surface temp cools so will the ground and if the precip is heavy enough it will stick, but that's all so up in the air right now for 95 that I wouldn't waste too much time thinking about it.
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This looks like it's going to be a really interesting event to watch unfold for those of us on I95. Seems like the type of scenario where we can get last minute suprises or last minute disappointments but either way should be a fun ride.
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Yeah but I'm encouraged that all the models are settling on a relatively good surface low track and that this will at the very least be a close call with rain/snow. I
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I like the look of the SREFs. Surface looks warm at 75 but cools as the storm gets closer. 850 cools fast.
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DC snow rhombus!
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It was a really interesting event to watch IMBY. I was really surprised how cold it stayed and am hoping cold air can make it happen this time.
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Great read. Thanks for posting!
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If any mets want to explain why models didn't forecast the cold well during the ice storm and if that idea is applicable to this setup, i'm listening.
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Yeah, But I would def take our chances with these any day. Way better than anything else this year has looked 3 days out.
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I'm actually having a hard time finding any ensemble members that screw us too badly at 84.
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Looking at the individual members from 84 and 96 it seems like there is good agreement on the track of the storm but the timing differs.
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Meh. Canadien not killing my buzz. When has it led the way this winter?
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GFS ENS still look nice.
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Still likes the inland bomb scenario. It will be interesting to see where the EURO fits in.
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This. We are really close to a nice hit.
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GFS looks good at 78! Cold too.
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Yeah but once again rain/snow line is gonna be my concern as we get closer to the event. Let's just get the precip in here first!
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Not a miss for DC with heavy precip.
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Well I guess the NAM/GFS/EURO are converging on a close call for us.
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Euro ENS Doesn't seem bad.