JenkinsJinkies

Knowing the pattern since last summer this will get walked back to about 5-25% of what's on this map by Monday.

Does this mean the rain pattern didn’t collapse after all?

It also seems that our modeled epic spring pattern suddenly and epically collapsed.

Like clock work once rain entered the forecast again.

A thunderstorm that didn't get killed by down sloping...

Good, it can torch all it wants in April. It's winter torches I have a problem with.

DC got shafted hard.

Have you learned nothing from winter? These things can vanish in the lead up.

Appalachian pseudo rain shadow in effect.

And when the systems are further south they run into an anti rain force field somewhere around Richmond. I brought it up in my "is it ever going to rain again" thread.

Every time rain is forecasted the models have widespread agreement of 0.5-2 inches but then suddenly and epically collapse at the last minute.

Sun in Towson. This is going to be a total bust.

This has “die in the mountains” written all over it.

The Thursday rain is in jeopardy.

So how long until down sloping makes this vanish in Carrol County?

It was so strange how Helene just veered hard west as soon as it crossed into NC.

If that's the case then we could be in for some California tier wildfires from all that undergrowth.

Once again rain entered the forecast for Sunday and for a few days models were showing decent forecasted amounts, then once it got to 2-3 days out it got significantly walked back. This has been the trend since last summer, a threat shows up long range, in the days leading up to it there's widespread modeling of an inch or more, only to then suddenly and epically get walked back to about 5-25% of what was forecasted. Numerous rain events have failed over that period of time, wether it be westward traveling Ohio valley thunderstorms getting killed by down sloping or more steady systems from the south running into an anti rain force field somewhere around Richmond a good portion of our rainfall has either entirely fizzled out by the time it gets to us or gets so degraded that what was supposed to be an inch turns out to be 0.1 inches. Ever since winter 2022-23 it seems like something changed with our rainfall patterns, there appears to be more suppression keeping the moisture locked in the deep south. Even tropical remnants have trouble making their way up here now.

Sunday's rain is getting walked back

Using CWG's forecast for DCA I would give it an A. Area wide it gets a C.

Why do you keep touching the stove?

Looks like next weekend’s rain is on life support? Whats with these forecasts getting significantly walked back over the last couple years?

Climate prediction center seems to like the idea of us being wetter than normal in the 6-10 and 8-15 day range. They also give us a moderate chance of heavy rainfall next weekend.

There were so many failed rain events last year that if they were snow events they would’ve gotten a “what went wrong” write up.

Are the low lands going to get shafted again?