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Powerball

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Everything posted by Powerball

  1. Powerball
    It did get GHD 1 right. So anything's possible, lol.
  2. Powerball
    I think he meant in terms of the epic amounts. Those might end up south of the border. But in terms of getting a decent storm, then yeah, that seems to be guaranteed for Southern MI.
  3. Powerball
    You're getting snow for sure. Just may not be as much as you would like.
  4. Powerball
    You mean there was a change in orientation.
  5. Powerball
    I'm just waiting for the "nowcasting time!" posts.
  6. Powerball
    No. The evolution of the upper level trough and jet dynamics is what will dictate the strength of this storm and the location of the best forcing.
  7. Powerball
    The 12z EURO is also slightly drier. I will make a final call after the 00z run, but the 10-15" prediction I made earlier (with isolated higher amounts) doesn't look too bad
  8. Powerball
    Jan 2014 also started to shift SE before correcting NW at the last minute.
  9. Powerball
    If there's any solace, there was at least GHD 2 that did the opposite. It had started to trend south at this point on the models, then it corrected back north at the last minute, which ended up being correct. Granted, it was a different setup and not exacly a Jan '67-esque big dog, but my point is I wouldn't completely rule anything out just yet, especially with a +NAO and the jet dynamics at play. It's not like you need this to shift all the way NW from KY/PA, but just a 50-mile shift.
  10. Powerball
    What/who do we have to sacrifice in order to get the 1/29 12z GFS run back?
  11. Powerball
    Another bump southward.
  12. Powerball
    Is "professional meteorology analyst" now the PC label for "weather weenie?"
  13. Powerball
    My comment about the EURO was tongue in cheek. In my honest opinion, we'll probably see further consolidation with the heaviest amounts from C. Illinois, N. Central IN and NW Ohio, along with a continued but slow drying trend.
  14. Powerball
    Now watch the EURO come in super amped.
  15. Powerball
    I'm talking about after Wednesday's changeover occurs.
  16. Powerball
    I'm not convinced precip issues (at least of consequence) will make it as far NW as Toledo and Findlay. They might get occasional sleet mixing in, but unless it's ongoing for an extended period, that doesn't do much to cut down on totals.
  17. Powerball
    No kidding. Almost looks like the GFS did before last night.
  18. Powerball
    I'm looking at the Total Accumulated Freezing Rain QPF map on Pivotal Weather. Do note, rain can technically fall with air temperatures below freezing but still not actually accumulate much because of residual warm air on surfaces.
  19. Powerball
    The headlines (or lack thereof) really don't matter to me. I hate ice (along with the extreme cold coming behind it) and I'm not looking forward to any amount of it. I'm hoping it does trend to a nothingburger.
  20. Powerball
    And the heavier rates were still ongoing at the end of the run, so it would have had more snow to come.
  21. Powerball
    If you look closely, the NAM spares the heart of the Metroplex from much (if any) ice, with only advisory criteria amounts in the outer suburbs. (^^^Oh, Thank Heaven!!!) Different story along the OK border around Sherman though.
  22. Powerball
    I definitely think waiting for the 12z model cycle at least is the best move. Those 00z/06z model runs might have been the start of a trend towards a relatively less signifucant event.
  23. Powerball
    Besides the band seemingly starting to consolidate south of GFS/NAM/SREF had it, the amounts have been slowly coming down too. So I wouldn't even say 20"+ totals are a lock.
  24. Powerball
    Still, it is unfortunate that we got several runs (that seemed to be consistent at first) with those insane amounts setting up further NW. Now some people will be disappointed over getting what will still be a big snowstorm (just not epic/crippling/historic).
  25. Powerball
    I don't think you're remembering Jan 4-6, 2014 correctly. See below to review the surface/mid/upper level maps. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014.html
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