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Powerball

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Everything posted by Powerball

  1. Powerball
    Looks good to me!
  2. Powerball
    Those studies do suggest the drying out of the atmosphere is part of the reason, but I also suspect it has to do with the wind currents becoming progressively faster. Systems get shoved off to the east so fast when they blow off the Rockies that it limits the amount of time for atmospheric recovery to support significant severe weather outbreaks, with the window for moisture return being limited the further west you get and updrafts getting sheared apart. That's probably the same reason it's so difficult to get a storm system like the 1978 Blizzatd today.
  3. Powerball
    Jokes aside with the bolded, there has definitely been a steady statistical decrease in the frequency of tornadoes over the past several decades in the current area known of "Tornado Alley," as well as a shift SE in the statistical center of activity. https://earthsky.org/earth/tornado-alley-dixie-climate-change/#:~:text=We found a notable decrease,and Kentucky into southern Indiana. https://theweatherstationexperts.com/is-tornado-alley-shifting-east/
  4. Powerball
    An article yesterday from CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling into question whether "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name... An article on CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling to question whether "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name... https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/31/weather/march-tornado-record-climate/index.html
  5. Powerball
    An intra-hour high of 70°F yesterday saved DFW from breaking its current 70°F+ streak the past 7 days. Should continue at least through Sunday, maybe longer.Also, March ended up right around normal, with a departure of +0.3°F.
  6. Powerball
    I've been to Springdale once and met a few people there through my work. It was a cute, prosperous, bustling little town. It definitely sucks to see this. Hopefully they'll have a smooth and speedy recovery.
  7. Powerball
    It's a whopping 94*F at DFW now. Definitely exceeded my expectations. Also 2 degrees shy of the record high, BTW.
  8. Powerball
    For DFW, it seems December alone was so extremely warm that it helped the entire 2021-2022 winter crack the top 10 warmest list (#10 specifically), even with January only around average and February well below average.
  9. Powerball
    After a high of 86*F today, DFW could see its first 90*F+ day of the year tomorrow. The trees are exploding with leaves & buds too.
  10. Powerball
    A preliminary look at next Tuesday suggests it could be another good setup for severe weather, this time not only in Texas but also further north into OK.
  11. Powerball
    What's standing out with this particular event is how these tornadoes are seemingly taken aim at all of these different population centers. Even DFW had 2 weaker tornadoes confirmed.
  12. Powerball
  13. Powerball
  14. Powerball
    Meanwhile, in textbook "Spring in Texas" fashion, there's currently a blizzard ongoing in the Panhandle.
  15. Powerball
    Just to clarify, it was just a few pea to dime sized hail stones mixed in with the rain. Lasted no more than a minute.
  16. Powerball
    Getting hail now
  17. Powerball
    Sick looking shelf cloud, but no sign of a funnel so far.
  18. Powerball
    Addison just activated its sirens.
  19. Powerball
    Starting to get peeks of sun here...
  20. Powerball
    Those storm are pretty far removed from the surface-based instability. For now, they should only pose a hail threat. That said, they seem to be forming off the nose of the LLJ along the prefrontal trough.
  21. Powerball
    They added a 15% tornado area around College Station, as well as a decent sized 45% hatched wind area.
  22. Powerball
    You can also see their skepticism about the threat levels up towards DFW (for understandable reasons). That said, can't argue against the model trends either.
  23. Powerball
    It's a weak cap that's been show from time to time on the NAM and other hi-res models (-25 to -50 J/KG of CINH), which isn't much, but it could be just enough to keep storm development along the dry line from getting too intense as the better dynamics with the LLJ will have shifted to the NE.
  24. Powerball
    Yep. The only thing that has been retracted somewhat back to the SE is the 30% wind area, which makes sense. With the cool surface temps and the storms not organizing into a QLCS until east of here, that was always a relatively lower threat.
  25. Powerball
    Parameter-wise and synoptically, 00z NAM was similar to the 00z HRRR. The big difference that the NAM maintain a relatively stout cap, which keeps convective coverage/intensity in check.
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