Powerball

Tornado Warning TXC139-251-161915- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0018.210516T1837Z-210516T1915Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 137 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Johnson County in north central Texas... West central Ellis County in north central Texas... * Until 215 PM CDT. * At 136 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Grandview, or 12 miles southeast of Alvarado, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Maypearl around 155 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3221 9705 3222 9706 3226 9709 3225 9716 3235 9714 3237 9700 3230 9691 TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 215DEG 15KT 3225 9709 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 92

Welp, this might not have aged well...

Tornado Warning TXC217-161845- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0017.210516T1817Z-210516T1845Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 117 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Hill County in central Texas... * Until 145 PM CDT. * At 116 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Itasca, or 11 miles north of Hillsboro, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Hill County. This includes Interstate 35W between mile markers 6 and 13. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3212 9715 3219 9722 3225 9715 3226 9710 3226 9709 3217 9702 TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 226DEG 12KT 3217 9715 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 92

Flood Advisory National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1214 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 TXC113-161915- /O.NEW.KFWD.FA.Y.0018.210516T1714Z-210516T1915Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Dallas TX- 1214 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas for... Western Dallas County in north central Texas... * Until 215 PM CDT. * At 1214 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Areas that are low lying or poor drainage areas will experience minor flooding in the advisory area. Up to 2 inches of rain has already fallen in parts of western Dallas county. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Dallas, Garland, Irving, Grand Prairie, Carrollton, Richardson, Desoto, Cedar Hill, Duncanville, Lancaster, Farmers Branch, University Park, Addison, Glenn Heights, Highland Park, Cockrell Hill, Ovilla, Cedar Hill State Park and Buckingham. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. && LAT...LON 3272 9704 3297 9691 3297 9663 3254 9683 3254 9704 $$ TR.92

A band of 2-4" of rain has already fallen over the west / northwest part of Dallas (between I-20 and I-635):

Technically, DFW still has a deficit for the year. So I don't think the flood problems will get too bad as long as much of the rain doesn't fall at once.

A mess... 000 FXUS64 KFWD 131906 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 206 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021 ...New Long Term... Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for a prolonged active weather period consisting of widespread significant rainfall/flooding and some strong/severe thunderstorms. Enjoy these couple days of sun and dry weather because it appears those days will be scarce during the extended forecast period. By Saturday, a relatively zonal flow regime should be in place across most of the US with warm/moist southerly flow present across the Southern Plains. Warm advection may begin contributing to isolated/scattered convective development by Saturday afternoon across the western portion of the CWA where a weak cap is expected to erode via diabatic heating. With modest shear and the lack of a boundary to focus convective development, it`s unlikely that these storms would be able to become organized or reach strong/severe limits. The greater potential for deep convection will reside far west of the forecast area in West Texas along an active dryline. Our main forecast problem for the weekend will be determining whether this convection could organize into one or more MCSs and move into the forecast area later Saturday night or Sunday morning. Have generally indicated this type of solution with the current PoP configuration, and it appears that the 30-40 kts of low-level flow and resultant moisture flux could maintain convective clusters as they advance eastward, despite generally decreasing MUCAPE and modest large- scale ascent. Sunday`s forecast will largely hinge on these events (or lack thereof), and a morning MCS may result in an inactive remainder of the day if sufficient convective overturning occurs. Alternatively, no overnight/morning convection would open the door for some dryline activity to make it into our CWA later in the day. It`s also possible activity north of us along a stalled frontal zone in Oklahoma could make a southward push with an expanding cold pool or effective frontal zone.

OK and KS have sucked for severe weather as of late too.

More below average temps and wet weather. Weee!!! /s

Mesoscale Discussion 0590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021 Areas affected...Parts of central through northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111513Z - 111615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to initiate and become increasingly widespread north through northeast of the Edwards Plateau and adjacent Big Country through the Interstate 30/20 corridors by Noon to 2 PM CDT. This may include at least some risk for severe hail early, with potential to organize later this afternoon, if not before. It is not yet certain a watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Latest model output indicates a substantial strengthening of large-scale ascent north/northeast of the Edwards Plateau, across parts of the Texas Big Country through the Interstates 30/20 corridors of north central and northeast Texas by 17-19Z. This is forecast to occur in response to strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath increasingly divergent high-level flow, as a west-southwesterly subtropical jet streak continues to nose across the northern Mexican Plateau through the Texas Gulf coast vicinity. This lift will largely be focused above at least shallow cool/stable surface-based air to the north of stalled/slow moving frontal zone now extending across the upper Texas coastal plain through parts of Deep South Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley. However, seasonably moist air above the frontal inversion, and beneath steep lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air, is contributing to moderate to large CAPE, supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development. While high-level flow is strong, lower/mid tropospheric flow is somewhat modest to weak. Coupled with the likelihood for increasingly widespread convection through midday and early afternoon, hail potential in the longer term remains unclear. However, given the initial thermodynamic profiles, there may be a window of opportunity for large hail in the initially more discrete early storm development. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/11/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32609949 32959809 33149610 32439453 31079569 30959757 30349983 30570081 31300040 32609949

Upper 50s / low 60s highs and winter-like gloom in mid-May? You can have it. I'm beyond ready for a death ridge.

Getting hail stones mixed in with the rain. Mostly pea to dime size though (nothing severe).

Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC439-102345- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0158.210510T2321Z-210510T2345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 621 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Tarrant County in north central Texas... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 620 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Haslet, or near Saginaw, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is possible. Additional storms within Tarrant County may also produce hail to the size of quarters. LAT...LON 3298 9703 3255 9704 3256 9755 3299 9754 TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 242DEG 42KT 3294 9735 HAIL...1.25IN WIND...<50MPH $$ 25

TXC121-497-102330- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0157.210510T2303Z-210510T2330Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 603 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Wise County in north central Texas... Southwestern Denton County in north central Texas... * Until 630 PM CDT. * At 602 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Boyd, or near Briar, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is possible. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... New Fairview around 625 PM CDT. Justin around 630 PM CDT. LAT...LON 3304 9725 3299 9740 3299 9763 3300 9764 3307 9769 3326 9753 3328 9738 TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 240DEG 28KT 3304 9757 HAIL...1.25IN WIND...<50MPH $$ 25

Severe t'storms have (unexpectedly) exploded just west of DFW. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 553 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 TXC367-102330- /O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-210510T2330Z/ Parker TX- 553 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR PARKER COUNTY... At 553 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hudson Oaks, or near Weatherford, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Public. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. This severe storm will be near... Azle and Reno around 615 PM CDT. Briar around 620 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from windows. && LAT...LON 3300 9791 3299 9754 3256 9755 3256 9798 3265 9804 TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 235DEG 33KT 3276 9770 HAIL...1.75IN WIND...<50MPH $$ 25

^^^He gets it.

Oh shit!!!

Why does this keep happening?

So basically, from what I can tell, the biggest take aways from the 1991 - 2020 normals are: *Winters got snowier in the Great Lakes *Springs got cooler *Summers and Falls got hotter

Looks like DFW's average highs for JJA and September increased roughly 1*F for each month with the 1991 - 2020 normals. It seems April and May's average went down 2-3*F though.

Yes, you're correct about the reports in Georgia. Apparently, I got cross eyed when looking through them.

Per the SPC, there were at least 2 fatalities yesterday. One was caused by the tornado in Douglasville, GA that caused a tree to fall on top of someone, and the other was a semi-truck driver that was caught on the tornado that crossed I-35 just outside of Waxahachie, TX.

The Tornado Watch in TX has been replaced with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 3am.

Looks like 3 tornado reports so far on the SPC's page (all in FWD's CWA). They're all south of Dallas, away from where the 10% hatched area was.