Powerball

If I had to pick a worse poison between ZR and PL, it would definitely be ZR. It's really a marginal pick though, because they're both quite awful in their own ways. I've had the pleasure of experiencing 12+ hours of non-stop sleet, but I pray I'll never have to experience a significant ice storm (DFW fortunately dodged a bullet with the system back in late January / early February).

To answer your question, similar to last Wednesday, it's because of the low wet-bulb temperatures causing evaporative cooling. Dewpoints were in the mid/upper 20s despite actual surface temps around (or just above) freezing. As the air has become saturated, the dewpoints have risen closer to freezing and now the precip is transitioning entirely over to liquid rain.

Call it what you want. But the current output would be a once in a 50-year event (and that's being generous, I mean how often do we see a widespred 12"+ blizzard along the STL-IND-DTW corridor?) And that's not accounting for the usual shenanigans the models have been pulling with over-amping these storms in the medium range. That said, it will probably end up being a decent run-of-the-mill storm (6-10" with some blowing/drifitng) for parts of the subforum when all said and done. And given the winter you all have had, it could be far worse.

The models are really trolling y'all hard with these weenie runs that will inevitably not even come close to fruition...

I was being lazy when I typed that post. I meant to say 2nd least snowiest (not 2nd snowless).

Welp, in typical Detroit fashion, February always finds some way to pull through. It won't be a 2nd snowless after all, as a shortwave moved through and apparently produced 1-3" overnight.

What's really wild is that Dallas has had more measurable snowfall this season than Philadelphia and NYC. (although technically, the "measurable snowfall" was sleet)

Yeah, it looks that way. Out towards Jackson, Hillsdale and Lansing.

It seems Ice Accumulation around the Detroit area was generally in the 0.25" to 0.35" range. DET is amongst the higher reports so far, with a total of 0.36".

Just talked to my mom. She's lost power as well.

After a round of t'storms earlier today, skies cleared by late morning and we've had Sunny skies.DFW's high was 81*F.Should have one more Sunny day tomorrow with temps in the 70s.

With the windy conditions and low sun angle, today's 90*F didn't feel bad at all. But -18*F will never *NOT* feel disgusting under any circumstance, lol...

DFW did hit 90*F, not just near. What's crazy though is that isn't even a record high (which is currently 95*F).

The UP and far Northern Lower Michigan were shut out from both GHD storms...

Maybe January 1978?

Looks to be about the same as the 12z run.

This would be one of the worst ice storms ever for Detroit if the 00z models are right. Definitely a bit more concerning now given that we're less than 24 hours from the onset of precip. That said, several things could still happen to make for a better outcome. 1. More snow/sleet at the onset (with a slower transition). 2. Less total QPF (00z models were at least drier than prior runs). 3. Surface temps are being underestimated by models.

Where is "here?"

Made it to 90*F today at DFW, first of the season/year...

Detroit's UHI doing its thing...

Yeah, if I were a betting man, Sleet will end up being the predominate frozen/freezing precip type for most in the transition zone.

2/21/23 at 10:27pm EST (tentatively)

"In short, it’s because the astronomical seasons are based on the position of Earth in relation to the sun, whereas the meteorological seasons are based on the annual temperature cycle." Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/meteorological-versus-astronomical-seasons

It's funny that @hardypalmguy has been fairly quiet since these back-to-back Winter Storms started slamming him...

Precip rates and how cold the rain droplets are can be important factors as well. If the precip rates are heavy, with marginal temps, much of it will just run off and not accumulate. Just as well, if the rain droplets aren't supercooled, they will struggle to accumulate with below frerzing temps as well.