Jump to content

Powerball

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    14,270

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Powerball

  1. Powerball
    I think that's the right move. Either that or issue an extremely large and marathon length Tornado Watch.
  2. Powerball
    It seems even the June 2019 Derecho was only Enhanced. It would be surprising to me if April 2011 was the last moderate risk.
  3. Powerball
    12" isn't happening for DTW or anywhere. Even if mixing/dry slot issues don't occur, the models aren't overdoing QPF and there's TSSN, the poor ratios will see to that. 6-10" is a good bet though in the heaviest and most persistent banding. Which, given you're looking at convective snowfall rates, is not bad at all.
  4. Powerball
    Oh, and it's nice to finally have an event that impacts DFW at an ideal time with a relatively clean and uncapped warm sector. Since I moved here, most of the "better" events have either been messy (a ton of low clouds / WAA showers / drizzle with cool surface temps), had capping issues or had poor timing (late evening / early morning).
  5. Powerball
    Which is why the Lions/Eagles Snow Bowl in 2013 is perhaps my favorite Football game ever.
  6. Powerball
    Was October 2019 a moderate risk?
  7. Powerball
    I will say, however, clouds are gradually thinning here in the Metroplex with more sun coming through.
  8. Powerball
    There'a still a fair amount of CINH in place, so I'm not surprised to see the current warm front cells struggle.
  9. Powerball
  10. Powerball
    Sanctioned.
  11. Powerball
    DTW may suck when it comes to reeling in the big dogs, but it always manages to score somehow with the mediocre / run-of-the-mill snow events better than most in the midwest.
  12. Powerball
    Per the SPC's discussion, the main reason the 15% area was dropped was because of poor timing for the ArkLaTx region. Probs are still about the same for DFW, and if anything, it's looking relatively better than it did yesterday (just not quite 15% probs better).
  13. Powerball
    Which is what's great about WFH. As long as I get the job done, my boss fortunately couldn't care less about "idle" hours, lol...
  14. Powerball
    12z Hi-Res models definitely looking more volatile for DFW late this afternoon, showing more of a favorable setup for tornadic storms. I'm sure it's in part because of the warm front getting hung up further SE. I wouldn't be surprised if the moderate risk area gets expanded NW a bit.
  15. Powerball
    12z FV3 (which I understand is some hi-res derivative of the GFS) also crushes Detroit.
  16. Powerball
    12z HRRR has to be the most run for Detroit yet. Meanwhile, Chicago's barely whiffing Cirrus (let alone precip) and it even has Harry riding the edge.
  17. Powerball
    Yes, the NAM has an excellent reputation for being consistently wrong...
  18. Powerball
    With a range like that, you'll get a more accurate prediction by simply off throwing a dart and seeing where it lands.
  19. Powerball
    What will be to a lot of folks' shock, DTX went with a WSW for their entire CWA...
  20. Powerball
    Part of it is that the big dog potential, as expected, has gone the way of the Dodo. Still has the potential to be a decent event though.
  21. Powerball
    Another thing I noticed is that the latest models runs have started to speed things up again. Timing's going to be more of an issue for DFW than instability/dynamics. The later the timing, the better for a more widespread event as the line will have time to organize before exiting to the east.
  22. Powerball
    Definitely think the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of DFW was a bit presumptuous. The activity this morning has been centered along a narrow corridor and has shown no signs of expanding northward or southward. In other words, it's isolated enough that short fuse warnings would have been sufficient.
  23. Powerball
    The -PNA/-NAO combo along with the warmer anomalies over the Gulf are already making for some interesting severe weather setups across the Plains and Dixie Alley.
  24. Powerball
    Looking good...
  25. Powerball
    Yeah, I'd easily take snow over the ZR/PL too, lol...
×
×
  • Create New...