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Powerball

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Everything posted by Powerball

  1. North Texas (including DFW) is looking a lot better on the lateat model runs skycover-wise. HRRR is even picking up on the temp drop during totality. Hopefully, this trends continues and holds.
  2. If you had told me Maine would have Texas beat for sky cover with this Eclipse several months or even several weeks ago, I would have called you crazy. And yet, here we are...
  3. Fortunately, as things stand now, the severe weather potential should hold off until the late afternoon / early evening hours (after the Eclipse time).
  4. It's an election year. All other news goes on the back burner.
  5. Seeing more (recent) reports of TSSN+ from Green Bay on Twitter. EDIT: As well as more lightning strikes on the tracker.
  6. Lightning is being detected up near Green Bay.
  7. 3 hours later, since that sounding, the atmosphere in SW Ohio has seen significant recovery, primarily thanks to the 40-50kt LLJ. With the impressive shear & forcing in place, you don't need a ton of instability nor that much of a temperature spread for tornadic weather.
  8. Radar trends are looking pretty ominous for the Cincinnati area.
  9. Still a pretty brutal cap on the 20z FWD cap. We'll see if the storms can prevail through it post-peak heating
  10. Much of Central OK and some of the Texas counties along the Red River have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk, again mainly for hail (45% hatched).
  11. The latest SPC Day 1 Outlook has expanded the enhanced risk area to include all of North Texas (includiing DFW), mainly for hail.
  12. The precise weather conditions at the exact time of the eclipse for any specific location remain unknown this far out, but we're now close enough to April 8th to discuss large scale pattern trends as well as ensemble data, which is what FWD has been doing for the past several AFDs.
  13. I can confirm second hand. My mom said there was enough snow for her neighbor to pull out the snow blower. She was tiffed too because she was telling me Kim Adams swore much of the snow would fall north of the city the night before (and in all fairness, that's what the models indicated as well). She about blew a gasket when she looked out the window yesterday morning.
  14. Per the storm reports it seems 4-5" is the rule from that mesoscale band that affected areas between I-94 and M-59 this morning across the Detroit area. Considering these areas were only expected to get 1-3" at most, that's a decent bust in a good way.
  15. Looks like much of the Detroit area might end up getting 3-6" with everything apparently having shifted southward.
  16. Would be crazy if it did happen though. The comeback of the century...
  17. A few echos are starting to show up over parts of DFW, albeit nothing impressive-looking for now. Some of CAMs are hinting the streamers coming NNE out of the Hill Country could blow up over the next few hours, but we'll see.
  18. Dry line ia already pretty close to ripping per the visible satellite. There's a nice looking agitated CU field expending down into Big Country.
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