Bob Chill

Cmc is light with wave 2 qpf even though it's actually the "stronger" of the 2 waves. I liked the run as much as any of the good ones.

Here's a better one. Might strip the paint off a car if it's sleet

Check out this sounding. That's either sleet or graupel? or something weird. Lol

Surprised nobody mentioned temps were in the low 20s around dc during the mix period. Sand blasting.

Everything looks pretty good to me. How about those gfs surface temps? Warm model is cold. This is good

I love how people always point out that the Navgem is progressive everytime its mentioned This forum would be better off if someone spilled a gallon of seawater on the navgem's motherboard

Dude, you're getting some of the best digital panels ever in a nina right now. It should be your favorite feb of all time even if no real snow falls

Yea, by the end of Feb. March could tack on another treefiddy or so

First wave is interesting it's an almost indiscernible impulse ejecting out of the desert sw and zipping along with the jet across the country waaay out in front of the digging shortwave. Normally things like that don't even cause precip here but the lucky connection with the gulf and bouncing up againt cold air makes it an event anyway. Sometimes it just wants to snow.

In just a couple three weeks we're going to be so bored and tired of snow, we'll start tracking monster SE ridges

The "bite mark" shape on the euro qpf panel across NMD is a pretty typical signature of confluence/dry air winning the battle on the periphery. Haven't looked close but I've seen that before. Psu doesnt like those. Doubt it will be a problem anywhere in our sub though

2 impulse/wave setups running boundaries/fronts are tough to model. Even close in. We've seen more than a few morph multiple times

Fresh Prince jack

12z gefs violently agrees

What you are saying supports my post even more.

Technical term so hopefully people understand this but we are getting tucked the f up on this panel

Yea, sour diesel and some garlic cookies. Eta: scratch that. I thought you said bud and not grub.

Look at h5 vort or height panels on approach. Think of the spaces between the height lines as highways (it's basically what they are). Then it gets easy to understand. The wed-fri period has "confluence" to our north or highways running due W-E. That keeps cold in place and the most important reason we arent raining/sleeting/zr'ing. Dont get hung up on anything beyond wed-fri. If the last week has taught us anything, cold/confluence on the models has been trending better as leads shorten. No idea if that will be the case again but no sense dissecting yet.

You clearly dont have two 32" monitors. I have 3 but for work reasons. At least that's what I tell people anyways.

I woke up at 4:15am and busted my ass all day so I could waste time here tonight. Exactly what I've been trying to avoid tho.... Old habits die hard I suppose.

First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out! I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet af.

Lol. Waaay too much sweating over 13 mile shifts and uneven qpf distribution. Save that stuff for when it really matters. Like 0z tomorrow. If your yard is still inside of the general idea, you should be elated really.

I did want to add something serious. Every single time models have tossed around the idea of a long drawn out event with even steven rates/distribution etc over 48 hours or more... It NEVER ends up working out like that. One of these 2 waves will be dominant and the other may be a letdown. Just going off memory. Everyone knows what I'm rooting for and it still includes a foot of ice. ETA: I suppose one difference here is SLP is weak sauce. Not the same as a 1-2 punch where there's a "wake" left behind or the exiting system does weird things over the Atl and screws up the approach of the second. This whole thing is pretty unusual. I can't really think of any event similar in the last 15 years. May be "ok" to expect anomalous results. Good times.

Have 30 seconds to kill. Nothing to add. All covered. My concern right now is now that some models are spitting out maybe a foot or so, now anything less than 12" is an epic meltdown disaster. Amirite? AMIRITE?!?!

I'm not sure we'll get full agreement on being on the good side for bit. One or more models will likely irritate everyone every 6 hours. Should be a blast in here as time ticks and nerves twitch.