Bob Chill

You have to think about what kind of event this is. Think about a stalled front in spring with gulf moisture getting drawn in and bumping up against it. It's very hard for models to get all the little nuances right. This applies to any season as these types of precipitation events are common. Mostly in the spring. Location, timing, and amounts are always uncertain. That's why I keep saying to just worry about your yard staying in the general idea. Which all of ours are. It's a chips fall kind of deal.

Very cold at the surface too. Unusual. A glacier on top of whatever fall thurs/fri would be pretty awesome. I love that stuff

It's for the same reason. This isnt really a synoptic event and very hard to get qpf right. If this was a warm spring boundary event the qpf spread would be even bigger but nobody would care. It's basically a slow moving/stalled front that wobbles around with a moisture feed

Are the models really all over the place though? 75 miles is huge only in comparison to back yards. The stripe has always been narrow and it's a boundary and not a "storm". Model spread like this is completely normal.

Everything was great until the euro stole all the snow before it even started. The other models are so mad they are protesting by showing nice events. But nobody's listening to them so they'll prob take it away at 0z. Dont blame them really

True on paper but the only thing you need is to find a cert doc who thinks hangnails require cannabis medication. There are plenty. Trust me when I say they only want your money For the record, I have 3 degenerated lumbar discs impinging on my sciatic nerve and an arachnoid cyst (inoperable) in my spinal column. Thankfully it only flares randomly and not chronic. I'm a master at managing it but wouldnt wish it on anyone. I've had mris, physical therapy ,pain medication (f that ish), muscle relaxers, and anything else my docs think will work over the last 12 years or so. Certain cannabis products and a good TENS machine provide better relief than all of it. I'm legit but few are. Not that I care. Never should have been illegal in the first place.

There are absolutely few if any hoops to jump through. MD just wants your app fee and the docs want their cert fee. The only barrier to entry is about $250. Well... at least that's what I was told by some hypothetical friends.

yea, well... welcome to the midatlantic that's not running as cold as it used to. If snow droughts negatively affect your life or emotions, you can either do something about it or just get waterboarded. One or the other.

The unfortunate part about the transition to the mid range to the short range is people's nerves are already fried. They've seen a million looks and reacted differently to all of them. Just because we're in the short range now doesn't mean it's all figured out. It's never all figured out like that. I like what wxusaf said and practice the same. Grab the set of models that you feel have the best handle (sometimes it's all of them) and then just blend them. Adjust what you know may be likely incorrect or just less likely to happen. If 4 models are all south and 1 model is jacking your yard, don't expect to get jacked. If the entire suite is shotgunned within a defined range (like right now), SOMEONE is prob getting jacked nearby. Might be you, might be someone else but you're in the game. I never understood why people simply latch onto the absolute most cherry picked set of runs/models and then lose it every time something shows something worse. Mid to short range ALWAYS has a series of overdone solutions. You can set your watch to it. I treat that set as max potential not a bar but that's just me. ETA: one more thing... this whole setup is NOT a prolific QPF producer nor a super heavy snow dumper. 1.2" of qpf as snow is A LOT OF QPF. Usually reserved for a sub 1000mb low off the coast situation. That's not what's going on here. We're benefitting from a 1-2 punch but a big shellacking storm this is not. Never once thought it was and definitely not expecting double digit snowfall. It's possible but not widespread imo unless it hits on all cylinders. Which happens like once every 5 years.

I don't expect anyone to listen but 50-75 mile shifts on globals run over run really doesn't mean much. The only "trend" I see has been detailed already with the "pac man" dry air bite out of the NE periphery of the shield. I (We) have seen that before. Feb 2014 & 15 had some similar "erosion" with a few events. Euro could be spot on but I'd wait another 24 hours before spiking sour lemons. If your yard is still under the "general idea" you should still be thrilled. Lasering into to fine details starts with 0z tonight imo but even then... We're talking 50-100 miles in total distance here. That can happen in real time.

I don't even need to look in the storm thread do I? lol. The irony of participating on the regular sharing a "love" for the same wx but when that wx hits, everyone hates it. And this is an optional hobby with no paycheck. People are plain strange man.

I was just talking in general. I didn't look at the UKIE. The follow up wave with slp scooting out to sea south of us could be more interesting in that regard. Kinda light qpf on the models but I'd guess verbatim it would be a pretty/fluffy snowfall. Time will tell.

This may not be true. It's not an optimal snow growth setup. No crazy frontogen, uppler level dynamics or big lifting mechanism other than isentropic upglide. Will still be pretty snow if the rates are good. I'm not sold on sweet snowgrowth. Think of this as the warm air advection part of a coastal. Not usually a 12/15/20:1 type of snowfall. But it's really cold upstairs so I could be wrong. Someone else or a met can add to or correct my thoughts.

I'm trying to keep my glacier fetish at bay but it's not working... I stinking love complete coverage with a 1" lid of ice/crust on top. Takes forever to melt out and keeps grass covered till the bitter end.

This isn't a clipper/pure NS shortwave. Even with QPF spread out, I'd be willing to bet in real time that it's pulses of moderate snow and not a pixiefest. Moisture source is the Pac down by Baja and the gulf. May not be great ratios depending on a lot of things but I really doubt it's a drawn out flurry event.

at least the answer shows up on search results without clicking. Don't want to leave a jpg "artifact" on the hard drive tho. heh.

H20RR is straight fire today.

Let's not leave out all the Coney Island Whitefish swimming around the docks. Not sure what species that is? Try google and don't blame me for anything. Your keyboard, your decisions.

This is actually a really good PG13 way of putting it. I was thinking dock curds... or worse... I'll show myself the door again.

You need to host a zoom mental heath meeting in here STAT

The pooled up slime around the dock inlets is def the sweat

There's a few areas in the city that work as the unwashed taint

You need to put a couple circles at the base of the friend zone. You know, the friend zone's 2 best friends. I'll show myself the door now

I hate rug pulls too. I get that as much as anyone. But sometimes I see irrational exuberance given the setup. The hybrid had me scared of my shadow start to finish. We maximize those like 5% of the time, get screwed 75% of the time, and 20% of the time we get ok snow. We got ok snow but it felt like the 75%. It's a REALLY TALL ORDER for the thurs/fri deal to drop over 1" liquid over a large swath. We have organized coastals with less. Those mid/short range mega runs always seem to be the kiss of death for having fun. Anything less becomes a disaster sticking point. Is what it is. I get it. I'm here for the lolz nowadays. Models backing down at short range has an inverse relationship with the # of lolz tho

No time to play yet. Just wondering if we've reached the point of the storm being impossible to enjoy no matter what happens? If not now, later today for sure