Herb@MAWS

Squall underway 29.7 at onset of snow

33.5 with mod snow/small flakes. Pic taken 3:15pm. f

At least things have whitened up altho my sidestreet is still wet. Pix taken 2:50pm. Temp 33.8, down from 35.7 around 1:30pm.

Pouring snow and 34°. Sticking on deck and grass. Pix taken at 2:35pm

Silver dollars rapidly falling and beginning to accumulate on mulch, grass and deck. Temp down to 34.6

Snow breaking out just before 1pm. Temp 35.6°

11:30am -- Very light mixed precip spitting here and there -- 34.7°

Columbia, Md. 7:30 A few flurries/snow grains w/temp at 28.3. My thermometer usually has a warm bias. Got down to 22 mid-Monday evening, was 27.2 by 6am Tuesday morning .... before rising to current temp. I'll consider anything more than 1" a victory IMBY.

Columbia, Md. 7:30 A few flurries/snow grains w/temp at 28.3. My thermometer usually has a warm bias. Got down to 22 mid-Monday evening, was 27.2 by 6am Tuesday morning .... before rising to current temp. I'll consider anything more than 1" a victory IMBY.

LWX Friday morning discussion now has similar thoughts: The forecast gets a bit more complicated than it was looking 24 hours ago as we head into Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Global models differ in the progression of the front, and the potential development of a wave of low pressure moving across the Mid Atlantic. With southerly flow ahead of the system Tuesday, temperatures will rise above normal in the 40s to near 50 degrees. So as precip chances increase during the day Tuesday, do expect rain to be the dominate ptype along and east of the Blue Ridge, with rain/snow possible across the mountains as colder air tries to infiltrate. As the front progresses eastward, we could see a transition to snow, even in the metro areas Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. The ECMWF has trended quite a bit slower with the system through our region, lingering precipitation into Wednesday morning, which would favor drawing in more cold air as low pressure moves up the coast. The GFS is more progressive, but does indicate a change over to snow east of the mountains Tuesday evening. However, it lacks a developing wave along the coast and drier northwesterly winds drive precip to the east by midnight Tuesday night. High uncertainty remains given the timing differences, so stay tuned.

8.8° IMBY at 8am.

Just some slight encouragement from today's NCEP 3-7 day discussion: "ANOTHER ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE EAST EXISTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT MON. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEEN LESS THAN AVERAGE, THE 00 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE SHOULD EXTEND FAIRLY FAR SOUTHWARD GIVEN THE COLD PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY."

First big wind gusts approx 8:35am. Ptly sunny 40 degrees.

IMBY we technically got below freezing. Skies partially cleared around 11pm Friday and temp dipped to 31. By 6am, it was overcast and back up to 34. Hanging in at 35.6 at noon.

Just under 1.5" here.

Would be sweet if that batch in WV holds together for later on.

31.5 with steady snow/small flakes. Deck and cars whitened. Eyeballing minimally a healthy 1/2"

Just starting, 33°

While one will takeaway what they wish from the summary, LWX also notes the colder/more SE-ly trend in their Wed. morning discussion: The latest 00z guidance continues to suggest that the low will track closer to the Appalachians as opposed to our south or along the coast. This would put our area on the "warmer" side of the storm, which means that there is a better chance for rain or a wintry mix changing to rain for most areas instead of significant snow. The 00z ensemble fields also show this being the most likely scenario. This scenario seems possible given the the synoptic signals such as the subtropical ridge poking into the southeastern CONUS ahead of this system, and the higher pressures from the Arctic high being over the Plains instead of New England ahead of the storm. Having that been said, despite the 00z guidance still showing the low track closer to the Appalachians, it did shift slightly to the south and east with the track of the low. Also, there is still strong high pressure to our north and northeast as well as to our northwest over the Plains. Given the strong high pressure to the north, it is not completely out of the question that the low tracks farther south, bringing wintry precipitation/snow farther south as well. Some of the individual ensemble members due show this as a possibility, but a majority of them lean toward the other scenario.

leesburg 04 said: I drove to northern Jersey this morning and just got home. I don't feel bad at all...just sayin if you know what I mean. Bare ground And I can confirm that north of there in SE NY State -- the Goshen and Middletown, NY areas (about 45 min drive east of Scranton) -- also had no snow with this last event. They've had some snow already, but not lately. ** Lowest temp so far for the season this morning IMBY.

The waiting yesterday late PM was painful. But the results .... more than satisfying!

''Columbia Death Band'' FTW! 5" between approx 5-10pm, 12.3" total.

9.5" to 10" plus/minus looks like a good average at 9pm for eastern HoCo area.

Exactly what I measured. Thought I was seeing things. Gotta be on either side of 9" now.

8.3ish total == and pouring 6.3ish OTG