Layman

We drove up past your area yesterday heading to Bretton Woods. Rain/mist the entire way until we got about 2 miles onto Route 3 above Cannon. It was beautiful up there! Mid-50's, clear blue skies. Night and day difference. That recent warmth and rain sure decimated the snow depths. Let's get this useless cold out of here and head onto 70+ degree temps! 41 here with 0.45" or rain overnight.

We closed out our season of snowboarding at Bretton Woods yesterday. At the house in the morning it was dense fog and drizzle. That held all the way north til we hit Route 3 just above Cannon. A mile or two up Route 3 and it was clear blue skies, decent breeze, temps in the mid-50's and absolutely beautiful. Conditions were great for warm, wet, Spring-time riding. We had a blast! Unfortunately, we capped the day a little early due to a crash I took. No issues all season long until trying to sneak by a skills-challenged rider on a narrow crossover back to the gondola that had a big muddy/rocky washout. He turned into me, I turned toward the mud to not collide, jumped to try and get over the mud, caught my edge and smashed knees/chest/elbows in the mud and rocks as I slid to a stop. Not fun. Nothing broken but bruised throughout today, ripped Goretex pants and about a half pound of mud in the washer. I was an absolute mess! The Slopes app claims I went from 18.6mph to zero at that moment. At 51yo it hurts a little more than it use to Me earlier in the day - Beautiful out! Rain/mist picked right back up at the Route 3/93 intersection and kept up all the way home.

This is pervasive throughout society no matter the topic. We all have our individual biases where we tend to agree or disagree with whichever topic du jour is being discussed and base our opinions on the data we believe is factual and relevant. The depth of conviction of those individual beliefs and the louder one proclaims their allegiance to them often helps manipulate the audience's commitment to those ideas as you have mentioned. Interesting stuff.

For the past couple weeks there has been a huge flock of geese in a big field in Stratham off Rt 108. Been hearing them daily overhead as they're maneuvering around locally. The liquor store parking lot/sidewalk at the Portsmouth Traffic Circle was loaded with goose crap last weekend but no geese in sight. Didn't see many/any down there over the winter this year where the past couple years they seemed to bed down for the entirety of winter. Not sure if it speaks to anything or not, but I tend to believe along the lines you mentioned where they figured it was time to see if it's safe and ready to come back.

It might not have been a long stretch, and likely only remembered so clearly because of the holiday's it affected, but not too long ago (2018, 2019?) Memorial Day was rainy and in the low to mid-40's and 4th of July was mid-40's but at least void of rain. Whichever recent year that was stuck out to me as quite bad. I don't recall 2005 well aside from that Fall. We got our cert of occupancy for the house in October and I seem to remember it was a deluge from there on out (could've been 2006 though?). All of you here have great memories for this stuff, I clearly struggle

I have personally witnessed biased, dishonest research and researchers influencing and/or altering results in both private sector and public settings at the the state and federal level so my perspective takes that heavily into consideration. At one time it was fervently believed that: the sun revolved around the earth, the earth was flat, bloodletting cured illness, lobotomies cured psychological disorders, eggs are bad for you, no, eggs are good for you, no eggs raise cholesterol, no, eggs have no effect on cholesterol, etc, etc, etc, the earth is entering another ice age, no the earth is warming, etc, etc, etc. Presumably state-of-the-art science and research to some extent has been behind each one of those beliefs or understandings. Today, us humans believe we're at the very pinnacle of our understanding of ourselves and our world, more knowledge than any civilization ever. Current science and research is state-of-the-art. Just like it has been throughout time immemorial. Are our tools, methods, devices, understanding more precise than years past? We sure think so. Can that change in the future? If the past is any guide, absolutely. I see "science" as something very specific - a simple following of the scientific method. A hard-line approach ensuring zero bias, reliable, concise data, etc. When those essential components of science are toyed with, it ruins the "science". Changing definitions, ignoring facts, inserting bias, altering data - these are all things that have become very evident to be occurring. Even as we're at the pinnacle of our understanding. So I concur, it is difficult to faithfully accept all science these days. Maybe it has always been that way...?

Did you measure the depth?

Video of a tornado hitting a weather station in FL as they were live on air reporting on. No spectacular footage but still interesting: https://x.com/foxweather/status/1899106850160718063

Was just out on the porch with shorts and a t-shirt on and 4 motorcycles went by in the span of about 30 mins. Thought you might be doing a scenic ride around the bay.

Am I incorrect in thinking that the models take inputs from sensors reading actual weather stats across the hemisphere? If they do read actual data, wouldn't they be sampling the record West to East speeds? If so, I'm confused as to why the models would be slowing systems down for the past 15ish years. I could see a programming issue, but it seems that this data would scream for some sort of adjustment or at the very least, make an attempt to assimilate it better in the outputs.

How long of a ride was it from Baltimore? I'm on the Seacoast of NH and it was about 2 hours 45 mins a couple weeks ago. Makes for a long day there and back!

Is there a resource to compare current temps to the various 30 year norms? Curious what current temps are like compared to the 1931-1960 period. I may be mistaken, but I thought the 1930's had significant warmth but I may be confusing that with a lack of snow...?

Looks like practice to me. Needs work.

Now do November

Thank you. I went to download the app and lo and behold...it's on my phone. Not 100% sure when I grabbed it, but apparently I did, registered/logged on, it remembered me just now and I had completely forgotten about it and the entire process of getting and using it

I also have that same exact unit, 4-6 years of use, works great with no issues. Provides all the basic info and has good access online via WeatherUnderground and the Ambient Weather site. I'm embarrassed to admit I didn't even realize there was a dedicated app! I thought the Ambient Weather app was only for installation. I'll have to check that out. I've been considering an upgrade to a Davis based on the screenshots I've seen here and the granular data they offer but the reality is, I'm still not at a point where I fully understand it all so is it worth it...? We'll see!

I may be misunderstanding exactly what you're saying here, but it sounds interesting in that it seems to run counter to other statements I've seen about warmth being easier to forecast and/or maintain in guidance. I believe that's with respect to comparing to a snowstorm specifically. Where a storm needs a fair number of variables to come together just right to provide a "decent" event across the region. My understanding from reading here is that when warmth shows up, it has a higher likelihood of hanging on rather than a big benchmark storm appearing 8 days out in guidance. I'm assuming both your statement above and the other statements about warmth being easier to maintain can be true.

Could I please ask how the pictured temp anomaly map relates to a potential 90 degree day? I'm not sure how it's being interpreted to get there. If 90 is unrealistic, what do the seasoned folks here take away from this map with respect to the potential for on-the-ground warmth? i.e.: what would be a reasonable ground level temp that could be seen if this verifies? My cursory, layman's attempt to understand it says that at 850 hPa (4,500'ish up - I had to look it up) temps could be 6-7 degrees C over most of New England...? Or, is it 6-7 degrees C above normal temps for March 12th? If it's above the traditional normal temps for March 12th, are those identified anywhere within this graphic or in a key, etc? Thanks for any assistance to help me understand better!

That looks awesome! Hope you had a great day

Maybe the paper jammed and they needed to make something up on the spot

33 currently, waffling between wet flakes and white rain/rain. Spiked to 35 earlier but dropped quickly. Pack held up surprisingly well over the past few days. 9ish on the ground still. SxS tracks were from heading out to grab firewood the other day when there was still 12”+ OTG. 4 wheel low and she still wasn’t loving it. “All terrain vehicle” is a misnomer

1927-1932 was no peach there either. Lots of ebbing and flowing throughout over that span of recorded winters. I'll continue to contend that 150ish years of data is insanely small when dealing with something like meteorology. Glad people had the wherewithal to track that at least.

@tamarack I was heading up 95N in Maine yesterday and near Kennebunk there was a tree cutting operation on the side of the road for a few miles. Looked to be predominantly pine, all stacked nicely in bundles/piles. That stretch has always seemed to flow really well so I assumed it wasn’t for some future fourth lane expansion. I was curious though, does the state harvest the wood to their setback and use that for income? It looked to be a good deal beyond what I see when Eversource comes through trimming their ROW’s and was staged very cleanly for retrieval.

I know I asked basically the same thing earlier, but this is with respect to the 1991-2020 30 year averages, correct? To that end, is there a specific reason for using the 30 year timeframe? I believe @dendrite mentioned they were updated every 5 years if I recall correctly. My guess is that the recent 30 year look back allows for near term trend identification and accounts for relevant, real-time-ish temps.