Layman

12.6 for the low this morning. Didn’t keep an eye on that and wasn’t expecting it. Definitely chilly to wake up to. Please look for my essay later today entitled: ”Why I’m Happy I Only Got 9” of Snow Before The Coming 2” of Rain”

Interesting to see Seabrook to the south at 13” and Kittery northeast at 11”. Here’s where our super-official, not just jabbed in the ground (or tilted to the left a bit) measurement ended up. Left is 7:30am 1/7, Right is 7:30am 1/8.

Snowing the best it has all day over the past two hours. Sat at 6” from 7am til 2pm, up to 8” now. it was a bear to clear. Really quite wet and dense. Snowball making snow.

I’ve found these are great for cleanup and save your back.

Does SENH have a chance to pick up a few more inches? It’s been spitting here all morning but radar looks like it’s slowly filling back in. Not materializing out the window yet.

Feeling both dry and slotty here

6” OTG at 7:15am. 21.9F Very light snow right now.

I know it's taken in jest, but the geese are quite active around here today. Saw and heard multiple groups packing up and getting out of town. As one astute poster mentioned the other day, they seem to be more reactive than predictive. Lots of evidence of that today.

Spitting snow while getting the plow and blower machines warmed up and checked over. Should be GTG for whatever ends up happening here!

I’m definitely jaded from always coming in under the forecasts for the past few years and feel the same way - maybe 2/3rds for my area. Who knows, maybe this one actually works out this time? if we’re raining on Wednesday then I’m good with getting less than the apparent 12” or so NWS is thinking. If Wednesday has a chance to not be inches of warm rain, let’s get started on stacking piles.

I lived too many years just like this but am much happier now that I don't. Embrace enjoying each moment, whatever they may bring, and make the most of it.

If this influence does come back into play today, is there an estimate as to what kind of enhancement it could have? 10%? Or is it far more complicated and it will simply be apparent on the modeling that something is changing? Curious if there's a known or estimated impact of this happening in these kind of situations.

My interpretation of what they're saying is that they absolutely can however, it then turns into "not a snowstorm". It cuts west and brings rain or goes OTS and gone. Basically the spot where a storm needs to be to be a good snowstorm for the area is far smaller than what's necessary for something to cut west and rain or simply go out to sea and not be anything for us. Easier to forecast/predict something with much wider options to happen than that thin sliver for a great snowstorm. The cutter can go up anywhere west of us right up to VT-ish area (just my guess) and bring rain or poor conditions. Just my take on what they're saying, could definitely still be wrong.

What's the likelihood my area actually sees 12-18"? While prior results don't equal future performance, my guess is likely 6-10" based on my recency-biased, winter-storm PTSD cynical perspective.

Are there specific characteristics associated with a cutter that allows it to be sniffed out and held onto so far in advance? Assuming it actually does come to fruition of course. I imagine confidence builds in it actually happening as we get closer to go-time. Or, is it simply like other storms that get picked up well ahead of time, regardless of track? I'm thinking that because I'd prefer to not have cold rain, my personal negative bias is viewing this differently. Whereas if it were a coastal showing heavy snows along the New England seaboard I'm likely not asking the same questions as to "why this was picked up on the modeling so early".

I don't think they offer AWD to the drivers delivering to my area. I've pulled my fair share of Amazon vans off my lawn. From my own personal archive... January 20, 2023 January 23, 2023 - note the tracks through the snowbank above the van from the prior off-roading experience. These were 2 different drivers.

Ouch! Glad you're Ok! My perception of the "new" era of helmet wearing is skewed due to my recollection of a 20+ year younger self never wearing one on the slopes without any issue at all. "It worked then, it should work now"...However, my 20+ year older self realizes everything has gotten a little more difficult, slower and less adept during that multi-decade break. There's a lot more on the line these days and I'll definitely be wearing a helmet if/when we get on the slopes this season.

Do you typically go to the more northern mountains like Bretton Woods, Wildcat and Attitash? Or do you make it further down to Loon, Waterville, etc? I can't recall the last time I was up in Berlin or how long of a ride it is! If these model runs hold together, it's looking like an adventurous ride south for you on Sunday.

You're joking, right? Nobody's got natural snow but Cranmore has been blowing like crazy. Click to see the other cams aside from the "Valley View" https://cranmore.com/cams

Welcome back, George. We've been waiting.

18.0 this morning. Lowest of all of 2024 so far.

This is really interesting. One (or one group) of the models is going to be more correct than the others. With such a significant disparity, so much so that there may be NO storm, it'll be interesting to see which evolution is ultimately more correct.

Fingers crossed the next 10 days turns things around up north. Plenty of season left. Get our seasonal cold air in and a few producing storms and things can get back on track.