Layman

Meh. -0.9 Looking forward to the snow.

Tell that to the neurotic traveling accordion player that disallows the clearing of specific driveways...

Likely just Methuen...

Just got back from Portsmouth and Dover. It's a madhouse out there with all the pre-storm bread and milk gathering going on

Pretty sunset last night from the parking lot of the Portsmouth traffic circle liquor store as we stopped to get ingredients for delicious Dark Manhattan’s. Key feature you’ll likely appreciate- no geese! They definitely GTFO town this year finally.

Bunch of ticks north?

Any thoughts on a gradient from BOS up to your area? Boston at 20", Dover 15"?

FWIW

You missed the conversation this morning about the need to find the negative in a positive event, didn't you?

That girl sure did a number on you, huh? I kid! What could possibly go wrong at this juncture?!

Very helpful and understandable - thank you both!

Is there an easy, noob-friendly answer as to the significance of the 540 line?

Let's get it a few more ticks for good measure.

This sounds painful no matter how you approach it...

On a percentage basis, how likely is it that a system depicted like this at this lead time, can STB when all the guidance is honing in as it is now?

Man, if I had a nickel every time this happened...

Thank you for leaving so we can all enjoy this potentially massive storm. Your service is appreciated!

That QPF verification is neat to see. As I believe you implied, QPF is likely the best, accessible option for verification at this point and what you posted above certainly supports that. Going to be interesting to see what kind of consistency the AI models can bring over time. Thanks for putting this thread together and updating it.

With all this movement, I'm sensing the possibility of a coup this weekend...

We returned from Bretton Woods on Friday to bare ground. Looks like about 9-ish fluffy inches since then. You can see one of the massive fatties falling in front of the stake. The first round on Saturday settled and compacted a bit so who knows. Looks and feels like a “normal” winter around these parts in spite of some of the things I read

Thanks, I appreciate your response and perspective on this. Going to be interesting to see how it ultimately evolves and plays out over time.

Since this storm is gone...I don't necessarily feel like I'm derailing the thread by asking: Do you have experience or knowledge about how the AI models are attempting to assimilate data and/or generate output? My very limited understanding is that they're supposed to "learn" but what are they learning from? Historical data? Current data? Compared to other model outputs? Or, comparing after the fact, what actually happened? Curious about all this but not even sure where to look for a quality resource that may explain some of these things.

Could you please expand on this regarding how AI is assisting the weather models or "learning" from the outputs? Genuinely curious for a 30kft perspective on it if you have one.