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Winterweatherlover

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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover

  1. Winterweatherlover
    I know it doesn't and I've said that I'm just saying I haven't recalled many experiences where this dynamic has happened. So either I think maybe we warm into the 20s or the upper levels wont be as warm as modeled. I also realize this is not a normal storm by any means though.
  2. Winterweatherlover
    Another reason I'd be surprised if it goes to all sleet even once mixing starts, I'm sure its possible but can't remember too many times at least near the coast when it's been in the teens and pure sustained sleet. Maybe valentines day 2007 but even that was probably in the 20s?
  3. Winterweatherlover
    Going as generally modeled, unfortunately the immediate Jersey coast is warming fast and likely to fiip to rain
  4. Winterweatherlover
    It probably hasn't snow this heavy in NYC this cold since the 90s.
  5. Winterweatherlover
    I'm not really, we almost always ping earlier than expected but then it'll probably flip back and forth between sleet and snow for a while in the city/LI and immediate burbs and may not even flip fully to sustained sleet at all north of the city.
  6. Winterweatherlover
    Most models now showing 2 feet for Orange, Ulster and Dutchess counties.
  7. Winterweatherlover
    My guess is probably a snow/sleet mix for a while this evening but maybe never goes over to fully sustained sleet north of I80/Cross Bronx/far north shore LI.
  8. Winterweatherlover
    It will but will be interesting to see how far north it gets before it slows down.
  9. Winterweatherlover
    Wow I haven't been paying much attentiuon to latest guidance but latest RGEM looks like the mix line only makes it up to southern parts of the city and the Bronx northward never fully flip to sleet.
  10. Winterweatherlover
    Faster in PA than NJ is good short term if you want delayed changeover but bad long term as it means primary still kicking. Either way blasting snow now so just enjoy.
  11. Winterweatherlover
    Yea definitely lack of model agreement since GFS has Philly and NYC getting almost the same amount and GDPS has NYC getting 7 inches more. It's nowcasting at this point.
  12. Winterweatherlover
    SWFE usually don't produce 2 feet type totals I don't think but this one is very cold and very juiced.
  13. Winterweatherlover
    Yes if it's mixed it will but slower, I mean even sleet on it's own will accumulate especially on top of a snowpack it'll just be very slow.
  14. Winterweatherlover
    Not super likely but could happen if they get better banding.
  15. Winterweatherlover
    It has a foot for northern NYC and the extreme north shore of LI. It's probably the best case scenario.
  16. Winterweatherlover
    I wouldn't rule out 12 inches for I80/North Shore LI, it would be best case scenario but possible.
  17. Winterweatherlover
    True in that case it would get kind of far north but I would imagine on the northern edge of the mixing it won't affect much.
  18. Winterweatherlover
    It will definitely mix at some point but some models hint at it creepily rapidly into NJ/NYC area and then an initial collapse I guess during heavy precip and coastal takeover?
  19. Winterweatherlover
    To me each run looks around the same, seems every model pretty has the immediate NYC area about 8-11 inches except the NAM.
  20. Winterweatherlover
    Better latitude and warming coming from the southwest rather than the southeast in this type of setup. Warming probably comes from the southeast with the coastal for eastern LI but that's only very late in the storm.
  21. Winterweatherlover
    Thats glass half empty take and a reasonable one as it is frustrating. Glass half full the area is getting a significant winter storm with a lousy track/storm setup for this region.
  22. Winterweatherlover
    wouldn't snow depth include snow currently on the ground?
  23. Winterweatherlover
    I know the NAM has nailed warm tounge events well, on the contrary has it had any significant fails in this situation in the past?
  24. Winterweatherlover
    NAM is way different than the other models in terms of the snow amounts in southern Ohio and southern PA. We'll probably know by tomorrow morning if the NAM is onto something or lost.
  25. Winterweatherlover
    NAM doesn't seem to be backing down, if anything maybe a touch warmer than 18z.
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