Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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I’m going with the expect all rain approach and be pleasantly surprised if we get a surprise.
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This would be a pretty big fail for the euro if it does bust given how consistent it’s been.
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I agree unfortunately. If we are relying on an inverted trough it’s probably going to bust.
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How come the euro is so different from other models? This is such a hard forecast.
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So we don’t want a double low?
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I’m sorta off the ledge because of the cmc. The Ukie I don’t take too seriously lol.
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This is oversimplified. The right track and right dynamics would affect the outcome.
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If the 0Z euro holds and we have cmc/euro in our favor that wouldn’t be a bad combo. Still a tricky setup it seems for the models and I guess I’m not that optimistic due to the overall setup and how perfect this needs to go.
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Not throwing it out but it’s has limited support. If we actually had a suite where at least two models showed something promising I’d feel more hopeful.
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The cmc undergoes faster rapid intensification so that probably helped. Still not optimistic but nice to finally see a decent run from a model I sorta trust.
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Cmc looks decent but I wonder how much of that is the norlun feature, the low still looks pretty Far East.
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The low may as well go to London at this point, good call by Forky.
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The 0Z gfs is now mainly rain to Rockland and Putnam counties…..
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Relying on a norlun feature to produce has never worked. Not sure what the Euro is doing that other models aren’t but it seems basically on its own.
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Hey I’m fairly optimistic for the I84 crew. At least someone in the subforum will get a nice storm finally.
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Yes there’s enough liquid that if we actually had a cold air this would be a decent storm.
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Ok now that I understand what is happening I can pretty confidently say 0 inches of accumulation for NYC, maybe white rain on Tuesday. Anything more would be shocking surprise.
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Ah so that snow on Tuesday showing up is from a norlun feature and not the actual storm? Then it’s most likely not going to happen.
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Yea honestly none of that is happening imo barring huge changes. The best we can hope for is back end snow.
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RGEM looks a little better to me.
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The snow does come on the backend but not much on this run.
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The NAM is warm as the west low is hugging the coast. I don’t mind the nam being over amped since we need a west trend and are mostly depending on wrap around precip.
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At 51 there does appear to maybe be a double low near the NJ coast.
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Def looks slightly east through 48 unless we get a double low.
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Not sure it’ll be locked in by tonight. I’m not expecting much but have resigned myself to keep tracking the likely final event of the “winter”.
