If the 0Z euro holds and we have cmc/euro in our favor that wouldn’t be a bad combo. Still a tricky setup it seems for the models and I guess I’m not that optimistic due to the overall setup and how perfect this needs to go.
Not throwing it out but it’s has limited support. If we actually had a suite where at least two models showed something promising I’d feel more hopeful.
The cmc undergoes faster rapid intensification so that probably helped. Still not optimistic but nice to finally see a decent run from a model I sorta trust.
Ok now that I understand what is happening I can pretty confidently say 0 inches of accumulation for NYC, maybe white rain on Tuesday. Anything more would be shocking surprise.
The NAM is warm as the west low is hugging the coast. I don’t mind the nam being over amped since we need a west trend and are mostly depending on wrap around precip.
True but if mainly snow and very heavy should be able to overcome it. Higher elevations def favored thus time of year but even valleys north of I84 should get at least a foot if the current setup holds.