Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Temp needs to drop more in immediate metro area for accumulation. 35-36 in March isn’t going to get it done even for colder surfaces.
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Snowing decent but no sticking, no surprise
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I looked at all models and definitely a trend snowier overnight even on kuchera maps. Maybe I’ll get an inch or two on grass.
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Of course not. Totals are for colder surfaces but still likely overdone.
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Doing barely anything here.
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It seems very focused on that western low over CT.
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The short range models are even looking like a few inches to southern Westchester almost to the Bronx border. Who knows.
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Just saw the gfs seems to really smash eastern parts of the HV which I’d be surprised because of shadowing but I guess depends exactly where the best dynamics end up.
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Should keep dropping the question is how fast?
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40 and pouring.
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RGEM actually came in slightly snowier for some, amazing.
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And it’s the NAM. Verbatim it’s 33 for most places away from immediate coast so actually not that bad but again NAM.
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I think two questions remain. How far south does the rain/snow like make it with the first moisture slug and is anything that falls tomorrow on the backend steady.
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The recent runs look a smidge better for the borderline areas of the HV. Of course if the RGEM is right it’s a non event in those areas.
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NAM still teasing, has 2-3 inches in the Bronx and parts of LI.
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5 degrees is a big difference.
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Looks better for HV and worse for eastern SNE. What a weird storm and models kind of all over the place for borderline regions.
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I would not be surprised if southern Rockland and most of Westchester get no accumulation at all. It depends on temps and rates tomorrow morning.
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Depends if it’s 33 or 35. If 33 could be a few inches on grass, if 35 white rain.
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I probably shouldn’t microanalyze hour 210 but it’s already a red flag that with that track the 32 degree line is so far north.
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It might stick a little on the north shore, south shore no.
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Yea the range of uncertainty is a little less here, either 1 inch or all rain.
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Yea and parts of LI maybe getting more than NE NJ/Lower Westchester. I guess the east trend helped places like Ocean county and Central LI (if that verifies)
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Best Guess CPK- Trace JFK- Trace ISP- 0.5 inch HPN- 1 inch Sloatsburg- 2 inches SWF- 6 inches Pou- 6 inches Middletown- 6 inches
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The pattern for the last week of March does look interesting but it's the last week of March and I'm sure will find a way to fail us. Probably just a lot of coastals with cold rain storms.
