Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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IMO have to post both the upside and downside extremes to give people a real sense of what can be expected, otherwise it creates a lot of bias when people only post the models at one end of the extreme.
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I;m going to post both high and low end images so people can see sort of the range iof options. CMC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= GFS https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Maybe but I lean the gfs is wrong and that sharp cutoff will be along or near I84. I'd be surprised if anyone in Westchester or Rockland is over 6 inches (maybe Rockland near the Bear Mountain region has a chance).
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I think NW NJ too far SW to get into the really good stuff but if you have elevation you may do ok.
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Of course the inverted trough actually happens when it hurts no snow chances but never happens when it’s cold enough to snow.
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Seems if there is a changeover in NYC it’ll be around 7 am. Really getting the absolute worse timing with this. The RGEM/CMC never change nyc over at all, all rain but they may be too extreme.
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I’m sure you’ll get more than cpk from this.
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Fair point. The cmc looks lousy too but I guess it’s expected cmc/RGEM would be similar. Guess we’ll find out tomorrow. Should be a sharp cutoff somewhere near I84 but not sure exactly where that sets up.
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There’s something that really triggers me about last second trends even if it doesn’t really affect imby. It makes it feel like we can’t trust anything.
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At least the majority of the subforum can now be on the same page again hating this storm and winter, what a disaster.
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RGEM looks bad for Boston too, seems same places that got hit all winter hit again. Everywhere else shafted.
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Agree I’d be going ballistic right now if I lived in the I84 corridor. Here I never had expectations.
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Looks pretty horrible even for lower elevations In Orange, Ulster, Putnam, and Dutchess. Pretty terrible bust if it verifies as I think NWS calling for 6+ in those areas.
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I’m not unless it shows something real inside 4 days.
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Since we are going football analogies Boston and HV got to the red zone but may not get a touchdown. We never got past the 50 yard line.
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Add we are in mid March to the list.
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It coulda worked out if everything went perfect but when you need perfection most likely it doesn’t happen.
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Terrible models. RGEM never had interest and that’s why I never felt good about this. I mean Euro isn’t terrible but I don’t think it’s number 1 anymore.
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Also the problem isn’t really the low going way east but it’s lack of cold air. I think most models still showing at least an inch qpf in this area.
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Agree not the same at all. This was always more of we need positive changes then we are in good shape storm.
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The HV is sorta getting maybe a last minute shaft they looked good for a while with this. NYC never looked good.
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Seems the lower elevations of the HV may bust badly as well. Story of the winter. You either need elevation or to be Albany and north this winter.
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The euro did so terrible with this storm.
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Swing and a miss twice in a week, March sure kept with the theme since December.
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Imo no way the coast and NYC is 2-4 inches. I think through 7 am Tuesday it’s rain and then probably white rain Tuesday or maybe a mix. I’m not seeing anything to believe temps would be near freezing in or near the city.
