Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Cmc/RGEM are just disasters not only for NYC but well into there HV. Hope they are wrong.
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Cmc looks east.
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Still not enough for NYC to see anything meaningful.
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They really aren’t if you look at the right ones. the gfs/euro/cmc/RGEM all have basically nothing for NYC.
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Agree it’s starting to look dicey even up there. But what else would be fitting for this winter than a last second bust.
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RGEM is basically all ran I287 and SE. it even looks dicey now for upper Westchester and Rockland not being mostly rain.
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I was thinking this. I hasn’t paid attention to long range but of course now pushed back to the 23rd. Maybe it’ll be pushed back to April next?
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Daytime light snow on Tue above freezing in March. Not optimistic.
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What happened to the se ridge? Doesn’t seem to be helping push this storm west when really want it to.
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This winter hes been basically right everytime for his area and points se of there.
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Thinking maybe it’s time to consider changing the sub forum structure? This is very deflating for those who live near the coast while interior is about to get blasted.
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It’s been warm the whole time. It’s the most reliable model imo.
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I would suggest not looking at models like the NAM and ICON. The RGEM has been consistent with a non event for NYC. That’s why I’m not that surprised/disappointed.
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At this point it’s not only possible but more likely than not cpk hits futility record.
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It seemed low unless we got absolute perfection which is rare.
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I hate living here so much so tired of the easterly winds ruining everything, I feel it’s the same story almost every storm.
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The ceiling was always pretty low imo se of 287. Does NYC get anything?
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On the bright side if it’s really gonna be 50s-60s late next week this would have been gone quickly anyway so we aren’t missing much.
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Not trying to be negative but part of why people get disappointed and say the models stink is you trust models and model runs that shouldn’t be trusted too much. The NAM is unfortunately not a reliable at all.
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Taking NAM over RGEM can lead to big disappointment. It’s also not like NAM showed this every run, it’s one run. It’s ok to be excited though but I always take a cautious approach.
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The RGEM hasn’t really liked this storm the whole time for NYC, I know it is slightly warm biased but it’s part of the reason I’m very cautious with this.
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I was going to ask about gfs and then realized with daylight savings not out until 11:30.
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I’m going with the expect all rain approach and be pleasantly surprised if we get a surprise.
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This would be a pretty big fail for the euro if it does bust given how consistent it’s been.
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I agree unfortunately. If we are relying on an inverted trough it’s probably going to bust.
