Winterweatherlover

Outside of the ICON the differences in totals region wide are not very large regardless of who gets some sleet or not.

I wouldn't hug an unreliable model, we know this is a possible outcome but no other model is showing that sharp of a cutoff and widespread 20+ amounts north of NYC.

If you want less sleet you seem to want either the primary to die early and coastal to form well south of the area (best case scenario for NYC and points south and east) or the primary dies out and coastal is weak and it's snow to a dry slot, the rgem has a pretty strong secondary tracking close to the coast hence the prolonged sleet, at least that's how I'm reading it. Personally I wouldn't mind prolonged sleet vs dry slot but if you don't want sleet you probably want a surpressed and south secondary I'd think.

RGEM seems to be the warmest model right now and it's still 6-9 inches for the NYC Metro area before any changeover.

RGEM a bit warmer than 12Z, precip starts around 3-4:00 am, NYC flips to sleet around 4:00 pm Sunday.

That may hurt in terms of lingering snow into Sunday Night/Monday but seems if the primary stays south of PA NYC stays mainly snow.

by the time the dry slot happens it would be a mix anyway and theres around a foot on the ground in NYC.

I was tracking if/when the changeover happens. It definitely will snow a lot earlier in the day on Sunday.

over an inch of liquid 95% snow for NYC, if anything seems like it upped precip a bit.

Pivotal Weather - NAM: Total Snowfall (Kuchera) - Northeast US Still snowing north of NYC and into SNE

Still snow at 7:00 pm Sunday on the NAM, mixing at 10:00 pm but precip looks mostly done.

I think if anything cuts totals it'll more likely be lack of duration than precip type. Models seem to be trending toward quicker in and quicker out which is pretty common. As someone said yesterday the 24 hour plus events are pretty rare.

Honestly that's good and smart, unlike a lot of this forum that changes the forecast off every model run lol

Bullish for southern sections but definitely possible.

I wonder if they expect a south tick given the highest amounts are in the southern zones? NVM I realize this is only through 7 PM Sunday.

Agree for once this storm isn't that hard to predict given the amount of wiggle room we have even for small trends north or south. 6-12 seems like a good bet for most, possibly 12+ those who stay all snow.

Too low for LI imo.

It's 3 days out, not 5-6, we have some sense of what is going to happen at this point, just not the fine details.

UKIE is mainly snow but has an odd random dry slot over the city at 7 PM.

Agree I'm seeing the range of possibilities maybe being 6-18 inches in this storm. The stakes aren't that high, It's not a nothing or 2 feet scenario here like if we were truly on a rain/snow line or there was a monster with an OTS threat.

There can be sneaky warm layers other than just at 850.

I always thought rain was pretty much off the table in this event except maybe the Jersey shore and the twin forks. The 0Z CMC did bring a bit of rain into far eastern LI but that also crashed further SE this run.

The sleet line actually came about 20 miles further southeast this run.

Agree, theres snow on the ground, likely 6+ inches more coming for everyone followed by sleet which will lock it in and then more cold, I get people get their hopes up when these storms get hyped for 12+ but I don't really get the negativity either.

Or you just allow yourself to enjoy it? What's so bad about sleet on top of snow anyway? It's not rain.