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Winterweatherlover

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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover

  1. Winterweatherlover
    Seems more reasonable.
  2. Winterweatherlover
    The media doesn't help with this, if they wouldn't be calling for a foot for days and days and days but I guess it's also our choice whether we listen or ignore it.
  3. Winterweatherlover
    You dont need a rapidly intensifying coastal when it's already frigid, you just need a storm thats not going to warm up all the levels, unfortunately this storm will likely do that with it's combined primary/secondary tracks.
  4. Winterweatherlover
    Central and Eastern LI would likely see a little rain if the euro secondary track is accurate but it's mainly after precip has lightened up significantly.
  5. Winterweatherlover
    I don't mind changing to sleet but changing to ZR would be a nightmare. I agree the coastal is more north this run which is why even the extreme coast of eastern SNE flips to rain at the end of this run.
  6. Winterweatherlover
    the plus euro looks like a nice thump, the negative is it looks like it brings ZR into NYC/LI
  7. Winterweatherlover
    True I realize most peoples worst case scenario is the opposite of this forums worst case scenario.
  8. Winterweatherlover
    still very bullish
  9. Winterweatherlover
    Not in this case since it has nothing to do with surface temps in either location, although as Eduggs just outlined their may be noticeable differences in how far off the NAM soundings are to snow in our area vs in Little Rock.
  10. Winterweatherlover
    The storms with mixed precip types can be fun in their own right although i prefer back and forth than a setup like this where once the snow flips to sleet it's basically done with accumulating snow for the whole storm.
  11. Winterweatherlover
    Agree with that i'd always rather a snow to other precip scenario than the other way around near the coast.
  12. Winterweatherlover
    The Canadian models are tired of trying to figure out this storm, they gave up.
  13. Winterweatherlover
    Best Guess Local best guess predictions, subject to change based on slight deviations in track Sandy Hook 7 inches than sleet/zr JFK 7 inches then sleet/zr NYC 8 inches then sleet Yonkers 10 inches then sleet HPN 12 inches then snow/sleet mix North shore LI- 10 inches then sleet Poughkeepsie 18 inches, all snow
  14. Winterweatherlover
    1.3 liquid, I'd guess about 50/50 snow vs sleet so that should be about 6-9 inches of snow.
  15. Winterweatherlover
    It's all a matter of perspective, the NAM likes the storm for central and northern NE a lot lol
  16. Winterweatherlover
    Being cold out doesn't have to do with upper levels. Yes we will get a lot of snow though I agree.
  17. Winterweatherlover
    Most likely yes except NJ coast and possibly southeast Suffolk.
  18. Winterweatherlover
    Theres a primary pumping warm air and upper level lows tracking to the northwest, theres no reason for this not to change to sleet, it's not like it's even on the fence, the sleet line is to near I84 on the latest models. I am not saying we can't still get significant snow if the front end produces but the sleet is inevitable.
  19. Winterweatherlover
    The 12z GFS just shifted way warmer.
  20. Winterweatherlover
    Why wouldn't they be right? Theres nothing to stop the sleet line in this setup other then enhanced snowfall rates temporarily slowing it down.
  21. Winterweatherlover
    The overall setup isn't going to trend at this point but the timing and intensity of the front end thump could still make a big difference between like 5 and 10 inches for many in this subforum.
  22. Winterweatherlover
    True I was thinking this should be our storm given the level of cold air in place but then I remember the 90s and how we'd be at 10 degrees and go snow to sleet to rain. At least we're not 10 degrees today and pouring tomorrow so that's good.
  23. Winterweatherlover
    True it's not all bad, just dissapointing given the expectations but also the writing has kind of been on the wall for a few days now. The sleet will at least keep the snow from going anywhere for a long time.
  24. Winterweatherlover
    GFS is just an absolutely attrocious model, 10 straight runs or so of all/mainly snow in NYC and now this. Why not get rid of the gfs instead of the NAM?
  25. Winterweatherlover
    GFS caved, sleet already into NYC at 4:00 pm tomorrow.
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