Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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It had a low over eastern LI and 2 feet of snow in the HV. How is that not a clear west trend?
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This really does have a bit of 2010 snowicane look with a low tracking almost due north or possibly even slightly NW. We could snow while Boston rains.
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Big time trend in right direction on gfs, still playing catch-up it seems.
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It’s the gfs with no support, toss imo but hope to be surprised.
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I will say seeing how far east some of these models are is making me think an inland runner is not too likely.
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I’m exhausted lol unless I see sub 990 lows in Forkys zone I know not to be interested. Unfortunately or fortunately the Euro and Ukie are showing that so that’s keeping me tracking this.
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To me that’s not a perfect track, too far east.
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Everything has to basically go perfect for this to work. Euro/Ukie are showing that but even minor changes will ruin it so confidence is low but also I’m not writing it off.
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Yea as myself and others have stated norluns almost never work out here.
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Probably but part of the problem is primary is pumping in warm air and secondary is way too Far East to help us. A colder air mass would have helped a lot though but setup is less than ideal.
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I’m losing hope too possibly jaded by the bad trends of todays storm but it just seems like it’s not the right winter for the coast to see snow. The RGEM looks terrible. Hopefully at least the interior parts of the subforum can get something worthwhile.
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Latest RGEM basically all rain everyone SE of I287. What a tease this was.
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Yea the twc forecast this far out I don’t think matters much, all the rest are very valid points. We obviously need close to perfection for this to work but the Euro/Ukie combo is showing that inside of 5 days so I’m cautiously optimistic but recognizing this could easily fail.
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Still sorta bullish with WWA calling for 3-5 inches for immediate NW suburbs.
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Yes it’s improved. Don’t get caught up in the precip types look at low placement. We need this strong and over the BM and people will be happy, if not they won’t be. I really am not taking the gfs very seriously it’s too Far East and trending toward other models.
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Better dynamics. We really need it right in Forkys BM spot. Too Far east is as bad as too far west since we don’t have cold air.
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Interesting. I’m more optimistic than you with this. Usually the Euro does well with these bigger storms and it’s been consistent.
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Hasn’t really seemed like a big west trend to me. This is by far the best cmc run of the last 3 and the Euro has been holding steady near the BM.
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Still time for changes. It is getting frustrating but this is the best potential. If this fails I think I’m done tracking, if it snows it snows.
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Trend toward Euro with quicker amplification but low track further west than Euro.
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RGEM also has been pretty locked in to the warmer solution. I agree this is basically done, not sure what upton is seeing. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031000&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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And the elevated/non elevated gradient.
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If it's too far east CT would do better than NYC, if it's too far west CT wouldn't do better than NYC. Although you could make a case everyone could do better than NYC due to the UHI effect.
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The GFS was very bullish on 2/28 too. This won't be close to 10:1 either for most of the region.
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Needs to bomb out sooner but also not hug the coast too much but the CMC/Euro trending east and GFS trending west is a good sign, maybe moving toward a middle ground consensus?
