Winterweatherlover

My NWS point and click has no amounts yet, probably the right move at this point.

Of course they are

I know nobody seems to like them but I find the kuchera maps usually are fairly accurate about ratios.

I am not really sure how ratios work to be honest as I've seen conflicting info here and in my experience they are at their best when snow is either very heavy or it's very powdery and cold but I can't think of a time when there has been sustained 20:1 ratios in this area, maybe for brief spurts?

I mean all jokes aside if i was betting on this I would bet all snow in CPK is more likely than not in this setup.

Why does it make the most sense?

Agree I also like to evaluate a whole suite before getting too reactive. I'm not sure even tonight at 0Z we'll get definitive answers but what you'd hope for is no radically new solutions to what we are already seeing.

To sleet? it's happened a lot I think, rain almost never. I guess it also depends what you define near the coast, for example March 2017 in lower Westchester was snow to sleet to snow with almost a foot of snow and lots of sleet. Honestly now that i think of it it's happened many times even in the city I just can't remember exact dates, snowicane was another example that comes to mind with 12+ despite different precip types. There was another storm I believe that same winter that was snow to sleet/drizzle to snow that dumped like 19 inches in Queens.

I guess it also depends how we define "fail."

I don't see how this can go that wrong for like 90% of the subforum, the Icon is super amped and still 6+ inches, the gfs is flat crap and still 6+ inches. I'm conservative in the sense I'm not expecting 12+ area wide although I guess the 12+ zone would be the part that will be fine tuned over the next few days.

Or it could be precautionary since it's such a massive high impactful storm? Especially in the south where historic icing is possible with the colder solutions.

GFS looks like it's holding with the more south solution.

2001 probably doesn't happen but if this does totally whiff way way more likely it whiffs miss to the south then too warm/rain.

Except in the this case the bullseye is from Northern Virginia to I90 so theres a lot of wiggle room.

is it counting sleet as rain because otherwise it makes no sense with the surface temps.

For that to happen the primary would have to go into the great lakes and the secondary hug the coast or not develop at all and precip somehow doesn't arrive until late in the day on Sunday since it will be like 10 degrees Sunday morning.

Still 6+ almost entire subforum

Yes orange county winter climo is closer to Albany then to NYC lol even though it's way closer geographically to NYC.

For the most part when people refer to us in this forum they are referring to immediate NYC Metro. This storm could be drastically different in Toms River vs Monroe but that's typically the case.

NAM at 84 hours is about as useful as me trying to draw a random map but given it tends to overamp the fact it's flat in the long range is probably a good sign if you're concerned about mixing.

If the 0 degree line is hugging LI like that very good chance some sleet makes it up to about 30 miles north of that line. The nam will sniff this out.

I'd be relatively ok with it but yes many would flip out if that happens.

Basically worst case scenario is 6-10 inches SWFE type setup, a wall of snow followed by mix/dry slot. Best case scenario it transfers quick to coastal all snow 12-18 inches Either scenario is good!

If the the primary is further north then I believe precip would come in faster but also end faster/dry slot. If the primary is further south it's slower and the coastal is the show meaning starts later, longer duration, all snow.

If the low is as far north as CMC/Euro show then I think we are very lucky that we never get above freezing. If it's further south like the GFS then it would be colder.