Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Barely anything here.
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Hate to say it but I think RGEM will win this again. All models cut back at 0Z and the temps seem iffy where there is precip.
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I think the fact the models are so all over the place and change run to run makes it hard to get too excited yet. Certainly there is big potential in the next week or so but hard to have high confidence in anything right now.
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This would be the first major fail of the RGEM this winter that I can think of if the above happens.
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The second one looks like it has KU potential if it comes west. Looking at both GFS/Euro Eastern NE is blasted.
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Come 100 miles west and it would be boom, we really are dependent on dynamic cooling https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030618&fh=207&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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OP GFS still amped and warm for the coast with storm 1. I lean toss given lack of support from other models and ensembles.
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I hope it works out but for me it's still a caution that the RGEM has never been on board and is still not really on board. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030618&fh=24&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=rdps
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Narrow cutoffs stink but nice to see the areas on the wrong side of the cutoff last week maybe cashing in.
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Yea suppression is more likely than a cutter with the first storm. Suppression for storm 1 shouldn't be terrible as it could pave the way for storm 2 as the Euro is showing. What we seem to absolutely not want is an amped up rainstorm for storm 1.
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Yea I get that. I don't want to minimize it, I hope it works out for your area.
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That's not really a hugger.
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One thing I don't love is even in a supposed great pattern coming up there seems to still be great lakes lows and I feel until we shake that it might be hard to get cold enough without threading the needle.
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I tend to think the "bullseye" with this will be 2 inches max and more likely coating to an inch. NAM over juiced as it usually is imo. Clippers usually dry out as they come east.
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Yep no agreement between models or even run to run agreement in the same model. Agree this won't be sorted out until at least mid week.
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Ukie must be surpressed for storm 1 because it hits Southern NJ coast. Models completely all over the place https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030612&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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My interpretation: GFS really strong with storm 1 so storm 2 is squashed to the southeast.
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I’m so confused by this pattern I guess the models are too.
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Agree like the look of offshore lows, just need one of them to trend stronger and west. Not a bad look at all this far out. I was focused on cmc, just looked at gfs and the first wave is too far west for us.
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I could be naive but not too worried about that with this blocking, more worried about secondary being flat/suppressed.
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Not necessarily but needs to be strong and close to the coast especially if it’s Miller B because that will initially pump warm air.
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It went from too far west to too Far East. It’s all over the place.
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12z cmc is what happens if the storm is too weak and too Far East, no dynamics and rain at the coast. Well mostly too Far East this run , it’s not weak.
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I like him pointing out the reasons it may not snow. It’s interesting to look at all angles. Plus if he’s quiet you know we might be looking at a legit threat.
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I mean he’s not wrong. Going to need a fairly strong storm in March to get it done but that’s usually the case.
