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Winterweatherlover

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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover

  1. Winterweatherlover
    I did say sleet was possible. Rain would be extremely unlikely imo in this setup.
  2. Winterweatherlover
    Yes agree rain is not even really a possibility in this setup with a high like that. If the low somehow hugged the coast worst case scenario is sleet but most likely its either heavy snow, light snow on the fringe, or nothing.
  3. Winterweatherlover
    I'm leaning suppression less because of what the OP models are showing this far out and more just the pattern/strength of high/depth of cold. I can't think of the last time NYC saw a significant snowstorm at 10 degrees, we don't have 90s climo anymore. Could it happen? sure I guess. It's also possible the models could be overdoing the high/cold etc.
  4. Winterweatherlover
    I mean I lean suppression in this case but I agree you'd rather have the storm track where it is now 5-6 days out then be in the jackpot zone.
  5. Winterweatherlover
    I wouldn't latch onto any models this far out, more so focus on the pattern and then model specifics inside of 120 hours.
  6. Winterweatherlover
    Given the pattern and depth of the cold I'd favor suppression for next weekend over a big hit here but we'll see. Hope I'm wrong.
  7. Winterweatherlover
    If they do, they do but I'd rather the nickel and dimes then waiting on the KU event that never comes.
  8. Winterweatherlover
    Really nice outside, Nothing heavy but more powdery then i expected given surface around freezing, I guess that's due to the cold 850s?
  9. Winterweatherlover
    It's snowing, it's sticking it's winter like outside def will take it. Yesterdays snow was way more exciting though.
  10. Winterweatherlover
    Finally steady snow has resumed. At this point I'd be happy with a quick 1-3 inches.
  11. Winterweatherlover
    Not complaining since I think this has been a nice weekend overall but most places aren't snowing right now lol
  12. Winterweatherlover
    The classic last minute east trend, congrats eastern LI.
  13. Winterweatherlover
    Honestly i'd be fine with 2-3 tonight on top of what we have. A bigger storm would be nice but with a cold week ahead a grassy snowpack of 5 inches or so is nice.
  14. Winterweatherlover
    I think overperformer maybe for eastern areas like eastern LI and eastern CT. Everywhere else probably not.
  15. Winterweatherlover
    Yea it depends on the rates, the correct thing is generally if it's 32 or warmer with light precip you won't get good accumulation in the five boroughs (especially the more densely populated parts). Heavy snow will stick anywhere except maybe midtown.
  16. Winterweatherlover
    HRRR and NAM look decent, RGEM is meh. Don't really know what to expect tomorrow but probably the range is like 1 to 5 inches.
  17. Winterweatherlover
    Likely go together, further east less dynamics warmer solution, better dynamics would lead to a colder solution.
  18. Winterweatherlover
    These models are ridiculous, 12z they all come west look like a decent storm, now all east and disorganized.
  19. Winterweatherlover
    GFS looks east for tomorrow. it is what it is, even another 1-3 inches would be nice on top of todays with a good pattern coming up.
  20. Winterweatherlover
    RGEM also looks like a hot mess tomorrow, too warm at the coast and not that much precip anywhere.
  21. Winterweatherlover
    Also has two waves
  22. Winterweatherlover
    NAM looks west maybe too far west for the coast but probably overamped.
  23. Winterweatherlover
    if a band forms somewhere from northern NJ/LHV/into interior CT could pick up 6 inches tomorrow on top of what fell today. The models often miss a band on the NW edge of the main snow.
  24. Winterweatherlover
    Yea my bad I missed the second wave.
  25. Winterweatherlover
    Not sure how useful at this range but HRRR not too interested in tomorrow, not even too far east but just dry.
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