Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Still time for changes. It is getting frustrating but this is the best potential. If this fails I think I’m done tracking, if it snows it snows.
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Trend toward Euro with quicker amplification but low track further west than Euro.
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RGEM also has been pretty locked in to the warmer solution. I agree this is basically done, not sure what upton is seeing. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031000&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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And the elevated/non elevated gradient.
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If it's too far east CT would do better than NYC, if it's too far west CT wouldn't do better than NYC. Although you could make a case everyone could do better than NYC due to the UHI effect.
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The GFS was very bullish on 2/28 too. This won't be close to 10:1 either for most of the region.
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Needs to bomb out sooner but also not hug the coast too much but the CMC/Euro trending east and GFS trending west is a good sign, maybe moving toward a middle ground consensus?
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Ok thats not way out to sea.
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It almost always hits the Toms River area (if it happens at all) but yes as weird as it sounds I'd actually be more optimistic near Toms River or the Hamptons than in NYC for this because they will be closer to the ocean storm dynamics.
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I like the optimism. We'll see. I know I'm being negative but I personally don't like the setup or see why people think they'll be heavy snow. This seems like light to moderate with maybe a quick heavy burst for like an hour early Saturday morning.
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LOL is my only reaction (sorry if inappropriate)
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I'm not expecting 2-3 inches where I live so you can imagine what I think of the 2-3 inches down to JFK unless you get Norluned lol.
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Looks almost the same as 2/28 except noticeably less north shore of Suffolk. I'm still having a hard time buying those totals in NYC and the immediate NW suburbs but hopefully Upton knows something I don't.
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2 am would be fine. That’s a 5 hour window for accumulation.
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I’m honestly worried NYC Metro won’t flip over until the morning. Maybe I’m too negative but I don’t like these latest trends with a warmer start to the storm that usually never ends well.
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Yea this seems to be where the models are going with this. Not gonna rely on the 3k NAM for hope.
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Obviously upton likes this event more than I do because I’m under a WWA and expecting an inch at best. I think you’ll have to get to the I287 corridor to see 1-3.
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If it doesn’t accumulate by 7:00 am it’s over for the city. Daytime snow above freezing no chance in the city. The recent models seem to delaying the changeover from rain to snow.
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I’m expecting less than an inch at y That’ll probably change soon imo.
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Close to throwing in the towel. This just likes a very crappy setup SE of I287. Someone somewhere may get Norlun surprise but not counting on it.
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3+ inches of qpf for the HV of mostly snow from the two storms. Probably too good to be true but should be a fun week up there.
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Nope the posted qpf maps before were all for storm 2 (didn't include the first storm).
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It would change to snow down to ACY but places near the coast could lose a lot of qpf to rain at first. I think we have to consider that as a reasonable possibility. If it’s a euro level bomb though could also legit backend snow 1-3 inch/hour rates.
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I’m pretty confident gfs is wrong about barely any storm. Beyond that I don’t know what will happen.
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The 12z runs were way better than the 0Z runs so for now yes, could still change a lot in either direction.
