Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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Sheeze, have to look at all the details and in between frames but that looks promising https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2023030912&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
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The secondary definitely noticeably west and has more of an E path than SE which could be a game changer especially LI but we are inside 48 hours so running out of time for big changes.
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Closer for Eastern LI, NYC complete shaft this run. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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ECM warm https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Coastal seems a bit closer to coast this run, helps the NW crew but not everyone else.
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I can tell you if the Euro looks anything like the Ukie people will stop paying attention to Saturday lol
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Uh that is juiced…..
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CMC/Euro really want to hug, gfs still way east, can they meet in the middle?
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030912&fh=108&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030912&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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CMC way south for early next week might even miss us this run. Ok def not a miss but big improvement over the last run.
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They are and I honestly hate them lol because so hard to forecast and most likely will get nothing if relying on it but if you do get lucky wow they can be fun.
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The NAM has not been a good model either. Agree about RGEM or short range HRRR.
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I'm not tossing but not buying either. Someone will get a surprise but most models focus on the norlun feature over NJ Coast or near NYC and not over LI.
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Right now I’d probably focus on qpf and dewpoints. The models may not pick up on dynamic cooling until the last moment
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This could be a case where cpk gets less than 1 while everywhere on all sides of it get more but hopefully not.
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The RGEM is pretty ugly but it’s also kind of dry. Wetter=snowier, drier=rain or white rain in this setup.
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You don’t need it but it obviously helps a lot. There aren’t too many storms we actually get that are powerful enough to generate their own cold air.
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The RGEM being warm for Tomorrow nights storm is definitely a concern but it’s also drier and this will be very dynamically dependent near the coast so it will make sense wetter=snowier, drier=rainier.
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The models continue to seem to show higher liquid in the NYC/central NJ/western LI region. If that trend holds I’d expect snowfall totals to bump up as we get closer to event.
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That’s very true but also in this case the storm will be drying out the further east you are. The cutoff is less about temps and more about less moisture due to the secondary tracking SE.
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If it’s truly over an inch of qpf it’s hard to see cpk not getting an inch given that would imply at least some heavier rates.
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Somewhat underdone imo but I get why they’d be conservative but I’m thinking closer to an inch at CPK and 1-3 just north of the city. 2-5 NW NJ/Orange county.
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It’s going to be hard for CPK to not avoid futility. Lots of snow threats. I honestly still think Sat probably avoids the record if it’s measured before 7:00 am.,
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For the city yea to the above. Seems the northern suburbs could do better with both storms.
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Totally agree but still a nice bump. Also if snow is heavy and better dynamics involved it could improve ratios I think.
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Big qpf jump on the 0Z global models, this could potentially be a game changer. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030900&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=qpf_acc-imp&m=gdps https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2023030900&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
