Winterweatherlover

0Z CMC is also wetter.

Interesting to see if 18z euro and 0Z gfs are picking up on a wetter trend that the mesos wouldn’t catch yet. Curious to see what cmc shows.

0Z Gfs looks pretty good.

Looks like plain rain until 6z Sat.

0Z RGEM is warmer.

Seems more qpf than other models. If that much qpf truly falls the same places that did well on 2/28 could do well again.

The only advantage this time is we don't have to worry about mid level warming but going to be hard to get down to freezing with light-moderate precip,

Pretty noticeable north shift on the GFS 12Z https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030812&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs 18Z https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030818&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

I don't think that worked out too well for the immediate coast. That storm also had better dynamics for our area than this one. The best rates here should be PA/Maybe Western NJ.

Personally I'd trust kuchera maps more than 10:1 in this setup given the marginal airmass and lack of heavy precip.

If the Euro depiction is accurate (and big if) if it will snow and snow a lot NYC on north imo.

How can anyone not see potential when Euro has a 972 at the BM for storm 2. Details to be sorted out. oh wait sorry wrong thread but I assumed we were taking storm 2, storm 1 seems like a pretty minor event.

Sorry if this is too blunt but I honestly could care less that model is terrible.

I think you might be in a good spot for storm 2. When GFS is surpressed and other models are amped it's likely coming north.

Being at the Bronx/Westchester border does make me feel better about the next week than if I lived where I grew up in Queens, I will say that. These cutoffs seem tight.

CMC looks pretty decent for 2/13-2/14. A little warm for the coast but it's close. Interior would get hammered. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Unless it bombs out closer to the coast I agree for your area. I think CPK likely gets enough to end the futility conversation as long as it's measured before 7 am.

Guess it depends what maps you look at, I use pivotal and have found the pivotal kuchera maps to be pretty reasonable in marginal events. Either way it's hard to see a blanking. There's going to be some snow and it's going to be falling primarily between 1 am and 7 am unless there are new changes to the setup inside of 72 hours.

Yes if we had that this could have been a much bigger event but it doesn't seem that's the way it is trending.

I mean it's not great but could be worse, not really seeing why people are saying mainly rain, pretty good agreement on at least >1 inch snow for CPK. It's also mostly at night/early morning so sun angle shouldn't be an issue. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023030800&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030812&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Cold is helpful but also needs to be not really light or it’ll just be white rain.

Yea seems this could be similar to 2/28 the areas that saw mainly snow may see another few inches, the places that mixed with that probably won’t see much of anything with this. As of now this looks weaker but the setup isn’t that different so precip rates might intensify as we get closer to the event.

Maybe white rain, don’t see this as mostly rain at least away from the south shore/north of I78 in NJ.

At least it’s mostly coming at night again which helps this time of year.

Fairly good agreement now on a 1-3 maybe 2-4 inch event on Sat for the city and points NW. LI is a wildcard as they could get nothing or if the coastal blows up close enough to the coast they could jackpot.