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Winterweatherlover

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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover

  1. Winterweatherlover
    Theres just no reason to believe the GFS unless it gets any other model support. The alternative scenario of the other models is not that bad though.
  2. Winterweatherlover
    GFS looks like it'll hold serve but at this point I'm not taking it too seriously with all the other models more amped. I'd expect at least some mixing at least to the I95 corridor but still think a significant thump possible/likely first, maybe some backend snow.
  3. Winterweatherlover
    UKMET At least 90% of it is snow for NYC Metro, would be a huge hit.
  4. Winterweatherlover
    UKIE basically all snow for this whole subforum with inconsequential light mix at the tail end.
  5. Winterweatherlover
    Can tell already Ukie will be colder than the CMC.
  6. Winterweatherlover
    It's more sleet than snow or at least close to 50/50 and the east end does look like it flips to rain at the end.
  7. Winterweatherlover
    0Z CMC probably the ugliest run I've seen so far for NYC/LI in the last 2 days of runs.
  8. Winterweatherlover
    CMC still amped, heavy snow to lots of sleet.
  9. Winterweatherlover
    Good catch, I didn't realize how juiced 12z was.
  10. Winterweatherlover
    Seems like quicker coastal takeover than the other globals which is why its colder/snowier?
  11. Winterweatherlover
    The 0Z GFS just trended north but it had been the most south model.
  12. Winterweatherlover
    GFS trends toward the more amped camp.
  13. Winterweatherlover
    I am not sure but the Icon is not a reliable model so I'd want to see more reliable models look like that before getting too excited for the bigger totals scenario.
  14. Winterweatherlover
    RGEM not surprisingly seems in line with the GGEM.
  15. Winterweatherlover
    I already question both NYC getting 18 inches and Buffalo 2 feet from a synoptic snowstorm unless Buffalo is lake effect enhanced?
  16. Winterweatherlover
    Yea Icon I don't think is very reliable but Kuchera about 18 for the city, around 2 feet around 84, also 2 feet for Boston.
  17. Winterweatherlover
    0Z RGEM looks leaning toward the amped camp at hour 84.
  18. Winterweatherlover
    Primary 3 mb weaker at 0Z, that helps.
  19. Winterweatherlover
    I did notice Mount Holly NWS seems to have all snow down to ACY so they don't seem to be buying into the more amped solutions.
  20. Winterweatherlover
    The differences aren't dramatic in terms of overall outcome but def noticeable differences in the low track and timing.
  21. Winterweatherlover
    My NWS point and click has no amounts yet, probably the right move at this point.
  22. Winterweatherlover
    Of course they are
  23. Winterweatherlover
    I know nobody seems to like them but I find the kuchera maps usually are fairly accurate about ratios.
  24. Winterweatherlover
    I am not really sure how ratios work to be honest as I've seen conflicting info here and in my experience they are at their best when snow is either very heavy or it's very powdery and cold but I can't think of a time when there has been sustained 20:1 ratios in this area, maybe for brief spurts?
  25. Winterweatherlover
    I mean all jokes aside if i was betting on this I would bet all snow in CPK is more likely than not in this setup.
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