Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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The 18z euro just woke it back up lol amazing what these models do to us.
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Differences but the pivotal map definitely has the 6+ line further south than the 12z run.
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I think realistically at least most of us are not expecting a MECS but hoping for a 3-6 inch event on the backend.
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I think 1-2 feet pretty possible around Poughkeepsie. Most models seem to really like that area this time around.
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It’s mostly the euro and one gfs run. The cmc has not really shown anything great any run. The Ukie was showing a huge hit a day ago but has consistently backed off two straight runs.
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I want to let this one go but the euro does good with big storms at least traditionally so it’s reeling me in.
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The 18z gfs shut down the whole forum, never seen one run do that.
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My lack of optimism is less about what an 18z gfs showed and more about the fact that no model is really showing a significant snow event for I95 corridor.
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That’s why I think it’s important to look at the right models. The RGEM has never liked this event for our area.
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18z gfs is a disaster for most of he subforum. Still looks good north of I84.
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That’s definitely not what we want.
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This is a really big storm and very good model consensus of a significant snowfall North of I84.
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Not really imo. If we start seeing 6+ into the city and snow down to ACY id be more excited.
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Depends on location. It looks like north of I80 it’s a real snowstorm.
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Euro run was good enough to keep me interested but not good enough to make me feel optimistic about this.
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Take this map with a grain of salt. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Wow looks like March 2018 all over again, snow and mix all around the rain in the 5 boroughs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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HV demolished by the CCB band, it's still a little too far north for NYC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Looks like it shifted east to me but then I guess hooked west or maybe is confused with the double low?
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Not a good run at all https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031112&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full
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Euro slightly north and 1 mb stronger than last run at hour 48. Looks further east and 1 mb weaker at hour 60
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Looking at too many model runs will drive you crazy lol. If euro looks like gfs I’d say we have a real shot, if not it’s looking pretty bleak.
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Yes it’s usually too warm and dry hence why I like to use it to increase confidence if it shows something positive.
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It’s not perfect but the RGEM usually isn’t way off and if anytung is usually too warm so it’s a good model to rule in snow chances if it shows somehung good.
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Don’t care too much about it’s thermals but the east track is a problem, without heavy banding NYC has no chance.
