Jump to content

Winterweatherlover

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,582

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Winterweatherlover

  1. Winterweatherlover
    Yes its possible if precip is really heavy the sleet line could stall for a few hours and obviously that makes a huge difference in this scenario.
  2. Winterweatherlover
    It's knocking on the door of NYC which is where most of the forum lives lol.
  3. Winterweatherlover
    It seems models have increased totals in southern Ohio and southern PA in the last few cycles which is interesting as they are closer to the storm and maybe a sign of a weaker primary?
  4. Winterweatherlover
    I think a flip to plain rain on the NJ coast at least from Toms River area southward almost a given at this point but should see a good thump before that.
  5. Winterweatherlover
    Looks more like drizzle then steady rain. I could buy that but I think ZR probably more likely.
  6. Winterweatherlover
    RGEM seems around 2 inch per hour rates between 10:00 am-4:00 pm in NYC Metro.
  7. Winterweatherlover
    I also like that it ends as snow on the tailend, it probably will be more mood flakes then amount to anything but something just feels nicer when the storm ends as snow.
  8. Winterweatherlover
    I'm cautious rather than overly optimistic but even I don't care about the gfs especially at this range.
  9. Winterweatherlover
    GFS went from the coldest/snowiest model all week to now one of the warmest models.
  10. Winterweatherlover
    It may or may not, I would imagine it only matters if its a sign the low is tracking further south than modeled?
  11. Winterweatherlover
    Shocking that it's pretty much the I287 corridor........ at least in NJ and NYS
  12. Winterweatherlover
    I wish the RGEM would come out at 18Z but it seems like it won't again.
  13. Winterweatherlover
    I'm in southern tip of Yonkers so I'm pretty familiar with the NW Bronx, def more hilly and less urban than most of the city. The biggest difference is in marginal temp surface events, since this is upper levels I don't know how much it helps but having a little extra latitude should help in this setup.
  14. Winterweatherlover
    I think 10 is reasonable for the Bronx especially the north Bronx. Wouldn't be shocked if the 1 foot line was near the Westchester/Bronx border in the scenario where things go well.
  15. Winterweatherlover
    I know from sports betting this stuff is a lot harder than it seems but it would take a lot to go right for CPK to break 11.3 inches tomorrow I'd think. Let alone the fact they undermeasure.
  16. Winterweatherlover
    I'd take the under on 11.6 at CPK
  17. Winterweatherlover
    Warning criteria is 6+
  18. Winterweatherlover
    I don't think the NAM will come more south but at least it ticking south brings NYC back into warning level snow and a low end disaster scenario seems less likely.
  19. Winterweatherlover
    It is but it mainly only helps places between 84 and 287 this run, would need another 30 mile tick to mean much for NYC metro.
  20. Winterweatherlover
    Still an early flip to sleet for most on here on the NAM but did up snow totals by about an inch or two.
  21. Winterweatherlover
    NAM looks a hair colder but not much, at least it's not getting worse...
  22. Winterweatherlover
    I don't see it even out but if accurate thats a strong signal the NAM may be wrong.
  23. Winterweatherlover
    NAM doesn't seem to show any snow in Tennessee.
  24. Winterweatherlover
    I mean you can't always get a perfect setup, I'd rather this then it get suppressed.
  25. Winterweatherlover
    I think ZR is a real factor if the upper levels warm and the secondary is too close to the coast. It probably would be at the tail end but even .1 qpf of zr would just make things even more of a mess.
×
×
  • Create New...