Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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The way the winter has gone I’d say expect to be in the wrong side of the gradient but I’m with you that I have no idea for that area.
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True but if mainly snow and very heavy should be able to overcome it. Higher elevations def favored thus time of year but even valleys north of I84 should get at least a foot if the current setup holds.
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Why so low inland?
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The 18z euro just woke it back up lol amazing what these models do to us.
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Differences but the pivotal map definitely has the 6+ line further south than the 12z run.
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I think realistically at least most of us are not expecting a MECS but hoping for a 3-6 inch event on the backend.
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I think 1-2 feet pretty possible around Poughkeepsie. Most models seem to really like that area this time around.
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It’s mostly the euro and one gfs run. The cmc has not really shown anything great any run. The Ukie was showing a huge hit a day ago but has consistently backed off two straight runs.
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I want to let this one go but the euro does good with big storms at least traditionally so it’s reeling me in.
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The 18z gfs shut down the whole forum, never seen one run do that.
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My lack of optimism is less about what an 18z gfs showed and more about the fact that no model is really showing a significant snow event for I95 corridor.
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That’s why I think it’s important to look at the right models. The RGEM has never liked this event for our area.
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18z gfs is a disaster for most of he subforum. Still looks good north of I84.
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That’s definitely not what we want.
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This is a really big storm and very good model consensus of a significant snowfall North of I84.
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Not really imo. If we start seeing 6+ into the city and snow down to ACY id be more excited.
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Depends on location. It looks like north of I80 it’s a real snowstorm.
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Euro run was good enough to keep me interested but not good enough to make me feel optimistic about this.
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Take this map with a grain of salt. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Wow looks like March 2018 all over again, snow and mix all around the rain in the 5 boroughs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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HV demolished by the CCB band, it's still a little too far north for NYC https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Looks like it shifted east to me but then I guess hooked west or maybe is confused with the double low?
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Not a good run at all https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031112&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full
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Euro slightly north and 1 mb stronger than last run at hour 48. Looks further east and 1 mb weaker at hour 60
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Looking at too many model runs will drive you crazy lol. If euro looks like gfs I’d say we have a real shot, if not it’s looking pretty bleak.
