Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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If you referring to this Sat I’m mostly giving up on a big storm idea and hoping for a few inches although def see how it could be something bigger.
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Too far out to put too much into these runs for that one. Probably won’t figure it out until wave 1 is through.
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RGEM looks decent for storm 1 too.
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I was talking about the second storm on the Euro. Not sure if the lack of cold air is due to airmass or track though.
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Sure this pattern could fail but it also succeed but appreciate you always letting us know the reasons why it could fail (not being sarcastic).
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Really good post.
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No cold air but I guess if it bombed out 6 hours earlier than the 12Z OP run is showing it could be a bit different.
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Now we have 3 waves to track but am getting tired of focusing on stuff so far out so right now just focused on wave 1 which looks decent on most models for at least a few inches but of course could change because of lack of cold air.
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Two storm total CMC (Sorry if too many maps but people say they like visuals) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030712&fh=168&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gdps
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Storm 2 snow totals (CMC) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Interior still snowing
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Storm 2: GFS totally surpressed CMC looks like will be a hit Verbatim CMC is fairly weak and tracks inside the BM, snow to rain coast, snow inland.
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That blocking really means business, the storm tracks SE once it gets offshore.
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CMC colder and flatter than GFS (Storm 1) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Snowfall amounts meh for coast, could be better if dynamics get involved but storm 2 is a way better setup for the coast. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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GFS still very focused on storm 1 for Saturday https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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Rained in Boston and Maine, 3+ feet in HV and Catskills. Truly fascinating storm. This one probably won’t be that extreme but does have big potential.
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Yea sleet is usually a great starting precip type for marginal temp storms.
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Yea you were probably far enough west to get a good backend thump. I think parts of eastern LI were mainly rain with 1-3 inches while CPK was like 15+ inches. I really think it’s too far out to know what this storm is going to do.
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Ok wondering if I got more than I think then because there was almost nothing outside at 8 am but maybe some of it already had melted.
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I think nws always starts conservative and thinks climo first. Even 2/27-2/28 they started off with nothing for the city. I think you kind of have to forecast climo first unless the evidence becomes too strong otherwise and thus far the models are showing far from strong support in any direction. Anyway just my take on it.
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Rain. Has a 2010 snowicane and look to it with the cutoff but only one possible outcome many hours out.
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Agree wave 2 is the one I think with KU potential.
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Let’s let the next week or so play out before writing off winter. There’s massive potential especially storm 2 but could also be whiffs. I agree after March 15 the odds of significant snow especially NYC and south drop significantly.
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CPK bad at measuring but in this case likely too warm inside the city for 0.6
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Four days out. If it’s light nonsense it will be rain though.
