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Winterweatherlover

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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover

  1. Winterweatherlover
    There can be sneaky warm layers other than just at 850.
  2. Winterweatherlover
    I always thought rain was pretty much off the table in this event except maybe the Jersey shore and the twin forks. The 0Z CMC did bring a bit of rain into far eastern LI but that also crashed further SE this run.
  3. Winterweatherlover
    The sleet line actually came about 20 miles further southeast this run.
  4. Winterweatherlover
    Agree, theres snow on the ground, likely 6+ inches more coming for everyone followed by sleet which will lock it in and then more cold, I get people get their hopes up when these storms get hyped for 12+ but I don't really get the negativity either.
  5. Winterweatherlover
    Or you just allow yourself to enjoy it? What's so bad about sleet on top of snow anyway? It's not rain.
  6. Winterweatherlover
    Theres just no reason to believe the GFS unless it gets any other model support. The alternative scenario of the other models is not that bad though.
  7. Winterweatherlover
    GFS looks like it'll hold serve but at this point I'm not taking it too seriously with all the other models more amped. I'd expect at least some mixing at least to the I95 corridor but still think a significant thump possible/likely first, maybe some backend snow.
  8. Winterweatherlover
    UKMET At least 90% of it is snow for NYC Metro, would be a huge hit.
  9. Winterweatherlover
    UKIE basically all snow for this whole subforum with inconsequential light mix at the tail end.
  10. Winterweatherlover
    Can tell already Ukie will be colder than the CMC.
  11. Winterweatherlover
    It's more sleet than snow or at least close to 50/50 and the east end does look like it flips to rain at the end.
  12. Winterweatherlover
    0Z CMC probably the ugliest run I've seen so far for NYC/LI in the last 2 days of runs.
  13. Winterweatherlover
    CMC still amped, heavy snow to lots of sleet.
  14. Winterweatherlover
    Good catch, I didn't realize how juiced 12z was.
  15. Winterweatherlover
    Seems like quicker coastal takeover than the other globals which is why its colder/snowier?
  16. Winterweatherlover
    The 0Z GFS just trended north but it had been the most south model.
  17. Winterweatherlover
    GFS trends toward the more amped camp.
  18. Winterweatherlover
    I am not sure but the Icon is not a reliable model so I'd want to see more reliable models look like that before getting too excited for the bigger totals scenario.
  19. Winterweatherlover
    RGEM not surprisingly seems in line with the GGEM.
  20. Winterweatherlover
    I already question both NYC getting 18 inches and Buffalo 2 feet from a synoptic snowstorm unless Buffalo is lake effect enhanced?
  21. Winterweatherlover
    Yea Icon I don't think is very reliable but Kuchera about 18 for the city, around 2 feet around 84, also 2 feet for Boston.
  22. Winterweatherlover
    0Z RGEM looks leaning toward the amped camp at hour 84.
  23. Winterweatherlover
    Primary 3 mb weaker at 0Z, that helps.
  24. Winterweatherlover
    I did notice Mount Holly NWS seems to have all snow down to ACY so they don't seem to be buying into the more amped solutions.
  25. Winterweatherlover
    The differences aren't dramatic in terms of overall outcome but def noticeable differences in the low track and timing.
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