Stormchaserchuck1

As of right now.. will probably change when models change If we are more +PNA Feb 5-21 we are stuck will possibly a -PNA March. If -PNA hits Feb 5-21 like models are currently showing, there could be some subsurface ENSO strength going into March(which actually won't matter ultimately!) If we run through both timeperiods independent, we are more likely to have an organic ENSO event this year.

Wetter than average/-NAO December's evolves into +NAO February's Drier than average/+NAO December's evolves into -NAO February's 75 years of basis.. pretty cool correlation there. The Feb NAO signal> Dec NAO(pick and choose) *wetter/drier than average across the US Strong -PNA December's = -PNA/+NAO February's at 0.68 correlation Strong +PNA December's = +PNA/-NAO February's at 0.70 correlation

We actually have some pretty big pressure hitting the coast of Alaska today, and it's so warm out.. feels like 50. If the -PNA/+NAO that these LR models are showing verifies it will be 60s/70s ^look how this is kind of a 180*/from today, and it's still so warm out. Pressure breaching the N. Pacific is definitely a staple of this time. (I still think there is a +PNA signal 2nd week of February, will be interesting to see how this evolves.)

I would say no snow through Valentine's day.. easy call

And the same February pattern is repeating as the last 4 years (as per current models). Mathematical odds of 5 strong -PNA's is actually pretty low.

Feels like 50s today.. I can always tell when the PNA changes. (-PNA, had been +PNA a lot of the Winter)

Rain

It's actually been a wet Winter so far If we get cold, I think we can get some snow (PNA-NAO have been correlated and when the Pacific is good, I fear NAO could be positive). Also 2/13 -NAO in December have all time been wetter than average, like we have seen this year. If you use counter-analogs (+NAO/dry December) we get a large composite that has a stronger +NAO February signal than -NAO strength in December (which I picked and chose analogs from!) Pretty incredible correlation there. No one would probably guess that this has been a shutout (-AO/NAO) v (reminds me a lot of 97-98)

I think LR models have a La Nina bias, and are weighing this too heavily: result

I'm actually waiting for my posts to be approved.. Climatology shows that a strong subsurface warm pool right now leads strong NIno's such as '82 and '97. I think in a larger range of year you would have different results, I think we are going into El Nino, but maybe Weak or Moderate. (It could go strong, and have the N. Pacific have a base -PDO state, such as 72-73.)

Here you go guys.. flex that SE ridge (84hr 00z NAM vs 90hr 18z GFS)

His board? I love weather. Love obvious right's/wrong's and pointing them out as these are $$traded commodities. Feel like it's an awesome chance and time of peace.. 384hr gfs ensemble now has a -NAO trying to develop, and I nailed that +PNA Feb5th-> call, as of right now, verifying better and better, vs models at 18z. 384hr of the gfs ensemble looks good. I fear this +NAO pacing our coming +PNA. hopefully the modeled -NAO/+PNA happens in the 2nd week of February.

I guess indexes, or index changes aren't considered by models? Weird, easy error. I've seen this verify before close to 100%. There you go! I'll look forward to 50s, and 60s and rooting on the snow drought into the 2nd week of February.

re: 18z GFS: this model will trend much, much warmer in future runs for Medium Range Storm. -PNA, nasty +NAO. could be 60s is my guess.

DCA +5.5 NYC+6.0 BOS +6.5 ORD+5.5 ATL+5.0 IAH +3.5 DEN +1.0 PHX -2.0 SEA -3.0 *Edit 1-31-2023 7pm.

eh.. it's phasing into this I don't like the threat anymore. Just for cold rain. By a lot actually, (Just like PHL covering -2.5)

That's a pretty horrible look on the 6z GFS ensemble. After this 72hr storm, it's warm, warm.

-PNA signal in March.. doubt we get any snow

You guys are weard.. GFS will show snow or ice at 00z.

That's actually a lot of moisture running into cold air.. my guess would be ice in future runs. +PNA signal starts Feb 5th.. will probably coincide with +NAO

I found no STJ correlation but there was a strong PNA correlation at 0-time.. fwiw

Subsurface in Nino 4 is about 10F above normal.. 65 degrees, not 55 degrees. I've found that the subsurface is more important regards to actual N. Pacific pattern in 0-time (D+0). (You can also look at the pressure pattern that happened in Winter 87-88, in reverse, when the subsurface was total cold (<-5F) During El Nino (SouthUS-High Pressure)(as the best analog match).)

Theory getting blown out of water?

Now we have really strong +NAO in February I was surprised because the roll forward composite (+NAO) was greater than my pick-and-choose analogs