Stormchaserchuck1

Nice write-up Ray. I like how you touched on the PNA and PDO and how we are still riding hard in the negative phase of them. There are actually a lot of similarities to last Winter this year.. last Winter the strong -PDO didn't really correlate.. should be interesting to see what happens this year with near similar PDO, ENSO, and still an active sun.

The odds of having no hits through 8 innings is probably 1/450 by itself. Those other variables included, it's probably a 1/2000 type occurrence or something.

Seems to have a slight correlation with warming of Atlantic SSTs for peak season Pretty good Indian Ocean warming signal, too. Actually a very uniform map

Subsurface warmth from the Apr-May Kelvin wave seems to be making it to the surface. This is why I don't really trust subsurface data from the 1950s. Since 2000, it has been a solid predictor of surface SSTs +months time. It apparently didn't do that in the 40s-50s.

More widespread +AO on 384hr ensembles.. 2nd year in a row we get this strong pattern after a very active Sun

I continue to have a high predicted value for Heating Oil tomorrow.. about 57% chance. More about unfactored-in Summer heat

Cat 4. Really hitting on some higher potential energy in the tropics with a Cat 5 storm in the Atlantic last July 1 and this one in mid-June.

Keep in mind that October 2024 was the lowest monthly PDO on record, going back to the 1800s, so this recent dip is no lite event. June PNA has a pretty good correlation with a stronger Winter SE ridge in Dec-Jan-March. We'll be around -1 for June PNA (correlation of below maps is opposite for negative phase)

Heating Oil Up 2.4% today, making the prediction 2/2, with a combined total of +3.8%. It also outperformed Crude Oil for the 4th day in a row, saying that it is more about the heat. The point is, sometimes coming weather events are not fully baked into the market price, especially when models suddenly catch onto it inside 2 weeks. A friend of mine on another board did research, and found that this late-June period has the highest correlation with the rest of the Summer in the eastern US, outweighing things like ENSO. A ridge in the last week of June often precedes a hotter Summer.

Ravens are pretty stacked.. I don't think they have a weak part on this team. Maybe kicker. Defense looks great, maybe top 5. This also takes out the wild card of if Nate Wiggins is good or not.

Still an impressive -PDO.. and my N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO prediction method is now running positive

March was warm. It ended up being 7th warmest Winter to date, if I remember correctly.

After we had a Cat 5 in the Atlantic on July 1 last year. There is definitely some uptick in potential energy in the tropics.. E. Pacific already going through 5 named storms in the 1st half of June..

I'm just observing that the pattern seems to be breaking a little Obviously above average is the way to go, as something like 80% of the months across the US are above average over the last 5-10 years. This coming heat ridge is also a SE ridge flexing, but it's happening with a strong +NAO which isn't as bad, imo.

I actually really like this cold 500mb over Greenland for Winter -EPO potential.. it's a correlation that I've been working with over the past 12 years, strong +NAO periods are correlating with -EPO +time

Heating Oil Up 1.4% today, so you would have made 10-15% on a margined futures contract. I continue to have a strong signal for Heating Oil Up tomorrow.. about 57% chance. I finished this mathematical program 2 weeks ago, and so far it has outperformed the numbers in the first 2 weeks. Here's my list for tomorrow, just posting because it's weather related in that the coming heat ridge I don't think is fully baked into the Energy price yet. Crude Oil was down today, so Heating Oil has outperformed it all week so far, telling me that the weather might be outweighing Middle East conflict, at least in the last 3 days. Usually models catch onto a pattern 2 weeks out, but this one trended strong about 4-5 days ago. ZM -0.080% ZC -0.071% MXN/US -0.057% GBP/USD -0.015% USD/CN -0.014% ZF -0.008% VX -0.007% VIX -0.004% ZT -0.004% DKK 0.000% USD/CAD 0.000% USD/CHF 0.000% LE 0.000% EUR/USD 0.000% GC 0.014% GF 0.014% AUD/USD 0.016% NZD/USD 0.017% ZN 0.019% USD/JPY 0.020% ZW 0.041% HG 0.052% ZB 0.059% ZL 0.060% ZS 0.064% UB 0.069% PA 0.091% RB 0.094% HE 0.105% SI 0.108% NG 0.115% CL 0.179% PL 0.215% HO 0.342%

Since the eastern US heat ridge showed up on models a few days ago, Heating Oil has really gone up in price Conflict in the Middle East also has something to do with it too, but today it outperformed Crude Oil. I have a mathematical indicator to trade Futures, and I have a really strong Up signal on Heating Oil for tomorrow.. if you want to take a chance and possibly make some $... It's telling me that the weather isn't fully baked in yet. I have a 58% chance that it will go up tomorrow.

Continued really strong +NAO/+AO pattern.. the CPC readings don't go that high, but the 500mb over Greenland and the Davis Strait rival a 3-standard deviation trough. We saw the same exact thing last year, weeks after major solar flares (which we had a short time ago) Say what you want about Winter -NAO not correlating with East coast troughs, but we have seen some really extreme ridges under strong +NAO H5 patterns since January 2024.

Breaking 6000dm on the 0z GFS.. I was wrong about no extreme heat. This is one heck of a way to even out this unusual mid-June cool period.

Really nice cold 500mb +NAO Days 8-15 on the 18z GEFS. This is a pattern that also developed last Spring/Summer after the active solar flares.

That is good agreement for an extended 5940dm ridge though.. in a continuous +AO pattern

And while we get ridging, these models are showing Summertime snow near Yellowstone! I haven't turned on my AC yet either

I don't see anything that says 100 degrees. I see 1 day in the 90s, but maybe we'll get a few in the 90s.

I would take my chances with either one of those seasons, too. We had a really nice upper latitude pattern in Dec 2022 and March 2023. I think whatever it was that was keeping semi-permanent ridging in the mid-latitudes 2019-2024 is breaking, maybe since the solar storms last Spring.

Yeah, we're not really crushing this generally cool period with record breaking warm temps at any point. I was going to say the global warming has slowed a little actually over the last few months. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a -PNA next Winter, but if this tendency that has been present since the Fall last year holds it could be a lot like last Winter just meaning cooler vs the trend (maybe not as dry).