Jump to content

Stormchaserchuck1

NO ACCESS TO PR/OT
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,302

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Did you guys see my NG research? It's since fallen down to 1.83 https://ibb.co/kxdbZSs
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO isn't even stronger on our side of the globe. https://ibb.co/zFvdTQv 0.38 correlation in February to Air Temps https://ibb.co/XDCcQyq https://ibb.co/P6KD38J
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah.. did you guys see the NOAA issued a La Nina watch https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower And it could be +QBO next year too.. and the last time we had +NAO we hit 80 in January!
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's a strong NAO we had.. a few days ago https://ibb.co/31LQ0dy
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's not even a block. And the tendency is for things to be warmer.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah.. that ridge near Japan is approaching the same extent. It doesn't even close off a block. In the last year, we've seen 3 stronger -NAO events (March '23, early Dec '24, Jan '24). GEFS is a weaker signal right now though, and 6z is more recent.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://ibb.co/YP0TMQd
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    This isn't that bad from this range. What I don't like is the loss of 50/50 low on ensembles.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    This does not hit northern MD
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Now on models: The NAO is moderately negative for 84 hours, and that's about it (hrs 204-288)! Compared to some recent episodes, the Polar ridging doesn't look impressive, it barely even closes off any blocks. +250dm max (-epo/-ao) in February is not that much. The 50/50 low has trended much weaker for PD threat.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    A lot of ensemble variation still on the storm. Some miss it completely to the south. https://ibb.co/2880jhz Usually when there's a bombing low pressure, there is a wider range.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nah, with the -EPO like that we should be colder.. that's why I said watch to see what they do over Alaska in future runs.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    You guys did say that the Atlantic was warm.. in the south-central and Caribbean SSTs are where they usually are in July? Here's a 591dm High over Dominican Republic. https://ibb.co/bL6GYZQ ^That 50/50 low is a little north, and while it is a -AO, it may also be a neutral to + NAO. https://ibb.co/7z7z3FZ
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know.. I guess the -NAO isn't strong enough.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    The sad thing is, ultra favorable periods are the only ones producing.. This will be our 3rd round of strong -NAO. Anything without a -NAO/+PNA in place may finish the year "0".
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually somewhat big changes on the NAM short term.. I guess that's why everyone loves it so much https://ibb.co/G2rTd9d
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks good.. the Euro weeklies have had a very favorable high latitude pattern for US cold for several runs/a long time now.. Interesting to see things so far apart for March. Late February Stratosphere warming favors some -NAO conditions in March, too.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know.. let's pin it.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://ibb.co/M6BjFBy I personally don't mind having a ridge over Alaska..
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually, when the two pieces (GOA low and 50/50) have greater -anomaly than the +blocking, it's an even better signal (like the map you posted).
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hopefully that block over Alaska holds the same strength in future runs.. https://ibb.co/LQxBQvy
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, those are the two biggest pieces in historical KU storms.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    We'll probably flip to -PNA quickly when the El Nino fades. Spring could go warmer..
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks good.. we have time. Upper latitude pattern is good.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it trended better at 104hr. https://ibb.co/7jkTsL9
×
×
  • Create New...