Stormchaserchuck1

+EPO patterns always bust higher.. especially in the Wintertime

Still looking like strong correlation with -ENSO at the 384hr model range all hail the subsurface!

I might take the over. +EPO patterns (500mb low over Alaska) usually bust a few degrees warmer from this range. Only way we stay under 103-104 in DC I think is if precip tomorrow interferes. 100 today and the pattern is only getting warmer..

Baltimore's forecast is 101 tomorrow. 102 Tuesday

If cyclones around the world are not as above average as the Atlantic since 1995, then that is something to watch, as you can say that we have already been hitting the peak part of the potential. I haven't done the research, but if the rest of the globe is say 125%, while the Atlantic is 200%, then I would have a hard time forecasting a record number of storms, and the max end ranges of CSU and NHC of 25 storms could be a little bit of a stretch, given that you would need absolutely perfect conditions for the majority of the season. With that being said, the central-ENSO subsurface looks very healthy in the direction of La Nina, with max anomalies of -5c to -6c today. I've found that this subsurface region has higher correlation to global impacts than surface SSTs, and with the surface taking time to cool, knowing that there is a stronger correlated region could be the difference between expecting 15-20 storms (Neutral) vs 20-25 storms (La Nina). Right now it looks like a Moderate La Nina in the subsurface, while Nino 3.4 is Neutral. 1995, 2005, 2020 were all years where the ENSO subsurface was much colder than the surface from the Summer through September.

If that Atlantic SST predictor area is going super positive right now, and high ACE correlates to -NAO's(?) Maybe it won't be such a high ACE.. hard to believe the potential energy isn't there though when there was a Cat 5 on July 1. Also, subsurface ENSO, approaching -6c right now I think is a lower shear signal for the heart of the season vs the Neutral SST stuff that is continuing.. based on historical analysis of the two variables. Here are three examples: neg subsurface Aug-Oct 1995 colder subsurface than surface Aug-Oct 2005 colder subsurface originally in Aug-Oct 2020

The strongest correlation is -QBO/El Nino = +10mb in cold season, and +QBO/La Nina = -10mb in cold season I came up with the theory in 2008, but since then the NAO has actually held somewhat of an opposite correlation to 10mb, but the 10mb effect of the two variables has held. We had I think 4 Stratosphere warmings last Winter.

DT mentions a lot the cooler scenarios to internet audience, but when he makes forecasts to his paid clients, he usually goes warmer. I agree with you that the La Nina still looks healthy in developing.

I certainly wouldn't go cold in the Great Lakes and Northeast with a cold anomaly over Alaska and Greenland. I think they are latching onto what has happened in July, with a +EPO and cold in the center of the country, which is opposite of what usually happens in +EPO: ^correlation map is reverse I was going to respond to raindancewx this, how odd the cooler weather is there with a +EPO this month. ^two 0.5 correlations disconnecting, pretty rare. These global models initialize what is happening recently and run it out alot. Even more the interesting correlation with ENSO subsurface which is dominating everything right now for forecasting value

I'm just impressed with how the ENSO subsurface connects with what is happening globally. SOI has been negative the last 4 days: 13 Jul 2024 1011.20 1010.70 -2.77 12 Jul 2024 1009.77 1012.40 -22.04 11 Jul 2024 1010.29 1014.45 -31.46 10 Jul 2024 1012.55 1014.15 -15.70 In 95-96, the Winter that went +PNA during a La Nina, the central-subsurface was Neutral-Positive throughout the Winter. There are many such examples of the surface and subsurface diverging, and the H5 pattern, or things like hurricanes, matching the subsurface Technically, an upwelling wave is a Rossby wave. Kelvin waves have to do more with a lowering of the thermocline and developing subsurface warmth.

Near the Azores if I remember correctly. It seems like every year lately we set a new milestone

It's probably a 20 hour drive to Buffalo, NY. You should do it. I was driving through the south recently, and can't really believe how short term this current climate cycle is regarding the trees and wildlife.. I imagined it could be very cold and snowy in the south at times, but it's just so sensitive to every little mile these days.

ONI was +0.1 for DJF 89-90. The La Nina died in May 1989, and kept warming through the year.. per ONI, definitely not a Weak La Nina But I remember in 05-06, we were using 89-90 as an analog for the Winter, because of the strong -QBO, rising, and maybe neg Neutral ENSO conditions. It worked out pretty good.

The 3 years that stand out compared to their predecessors for Atlantic activity, 1995, 2005, and 2020 did have a Wintertime -NAO in the midst of a +NAO general time.. but I think give it like 20 examples over 200 years, the correlation would be less than 0.1. Still, this is interesting, I guess

Real nice subsurface cold.. -5c, approaching -6c on the TAO/Triton maps in the last day.. It's right where you want it in the central-subsurface region too, for highest effect. Will be interesting to see if we can develop a cooling trend at the surface in the coming weeks. Obviously, the N. Hemisphere H5 is correlation with the subsurface 500mb doesn't care that the surface is still +Neutral

Nice catch with the Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere warming.. the QBO just turned positive last month, and the La Nina is still weak, so the strong correlation with both of those phases to 10mb is not really in effect yet.. obviously I can do roll forwards that will probably show a higher chance for northern Hemisphere Strat warming in the cold season, but with both of those indexes (QBO, ENSO) strengthening, it shifts things a bit. Still, it's nice to see somewhat of a positive factor for Winter cold, since everything N. Hemisphere has been warm ad nauseam.

I think you guys are overestimating hurricanes.. the thermocline is where real value is, for pattern effect. That lies 100-250meters below the surface, and hurricanes rarely reach that far in depth of spinning up the oceans.

That 604dm ridge is so impressive! We are still 2 weeks from the hottest point of the year, and the Atlantic broke it by 4dm! I'm saying.. the jet stream is really lifting north right now. I always thought that the standard deviation of blocks over Alaska, Greenland, and the Arctic would match the general warming that is happening, but over the last few years they have acted "capped". As long as we only max out near previous record in those locations, the mid-latitudes will torch.

I don't know.. my grass is always green. 20 years ago there were brown spots that have since filled in.

Precip has been way above average for the last 22 years.. not 1 moderate drought. The odds of that happening are probably 1/10, if not 1/20

I remember reading something about recurves being the biggest variable, they were connecting it with the NAO. I think you need a really neutral climate for such a thing to occur.

I would think if we develop any kind of drought it will increase our risk for tropical cyclones. For the last 10-20 years, just about everytime we have started to go drier, it has rained much greater than the leading dry period. I've seen it happen 25/25 times lately. We haven't had a true drought since 2002, and hurricane hits on the SE coast have been way below average during that time..

Low pressure at 500mb over Alaska always busts warm locally.

I don't see why Beryl ACE 36 is going to effect the Winter.. It tracked very far south in July. The correlation is turning up N. Atlantic waters late Summer/early Fall, but even that is a very, very small thing. Usually it's the larger pattern producing X effects (cyclones) that has the weight/correlation, but +AMO/-PDO/La Nina, which is why it's likely going to be a high ACE year, is not really a cold Winter composite. Humans can be a variable too though, I guess. I noticed changes in the weather pattern when Beryl was hitting..

Finally the June map on Climate Divison data updated Dec-Jun 2023-4 This might be the warmest Dec-Jun on record for the CONUS. July is very above average month. Besides the heat that is ongoing now in the East and West, here is the forecast for the end of the month: But it hasn't been an organic warm period, we've had a +EPO/+NAO in the upper latitudes, which matches analogs of the past, and that is usually the best way we get country-wide heat. Here are 30 analogs that I came up with for Dec-July: The following Winter season (Dec-Feb): (scale is the same lol.. one is hand picked, the other is +6-14 months)