Stormchaserchuck1

ENSO subsurface is dropping again.. tomorrow we might pop a -6c max area on TAO/Triton maps. This is impressive, considering the SOI has never been above +4 monthly for the whole event so far.. I think the Atlantic hurricane season should start to get going when the MJO becomes favorable. We might see more big storms, vs # of storms this year, as such a thing is correlated to La Nina conditions in the subsurface.

So how would you predict the MJO in advance? You use SSTs west of Nino 4 (and ENSO of course)? I've tried many things with the MJO and never came up with something that works from a good lead time.

Yeah, most of the -NAO periods have happened in December or March.. then when we had a -NAO in the middle of last Winter, we did have 2 snow events down in the Mid-Atlantic. I'd much rather look at 500mb maps though. The 2nd part of the CPCs range of negative anomalies 45N from the East coast to Africa is -NAO, but the PNA has been interfering lately... not that it isn't -NAO, just that downstream the Pacific ridge has been causing the mid latitudes in the Atlantic to stay warm (2nd 50% of their NAO calculation). For practical purposes, I'm going to call the upper latitude pattern the NAO.

You can sometimes get -NAO in the midst of shutout patterns. Look at Dec 2001 and Jan 1998 for example: Two shutout Winters down here in the Mid Atlantic. Something that you have to consider about -NAO's is, although they have a 0.5 below normal temps correlation, they also have a 0.5 drier than average correlation. -NAO's have sometimes appeared during super-horrible patterns.

We've had blocking over the NAO region.. I posted the image before, this is a pretty strong blocking signal for a 4-year period.. it's because within it we had 4-5 -NAO bouts. I don't know how or why the CPC calls that a +NAO, I've talked to Gawx about this before. Their calculations look silly compared to mean SLP. For the first time this year since 19-20, we've had negative anomalies over Greenland

Looks really nice. I've always found Europe's north latitude appealing

Your Texans will be paying Stroud $70mill/yr in a couple of years..

I remember Summers being hotter as a kid.. maybe the jet stream was south, giving us more of a push in front of storm systems.. There used to be big time thunderstorms too. We would have 10-15 days of year where the sky would turn dark gray or black. Not necessarily hail or tornados, but very powerful thunderstorms. Even in the early 2000s, there was a lot of lightning (I took thousands of photos). Completely different pattern now.

Latest CDC reanalysis SST map.. looks ugly, but we have had miracles like 2013 come from this: With the NAO prediction area coming in very +, I think that changes the formula from the last few years. Since 2013, +NAO's in Nov-March have been correlating with -EPO/+PNA.. but the La Nina and seasonal trends from the past 7 years should keep the PNA negative. But I am starting to think we will see a lot of -EPO. In the northern areas of the CONUS (interior NE and Great Lakes), that is a favorable pattern for snow.. +NAO being a high precip correlation and -EPO being neutral precip and colder than average. We also haven't had a true +NAO Winter since 19-20. Here's a composite from the last 4 Winters.. it's been mostly -AO and -PNA: This Winter I think we could even see a reversal from that map north of 45N, with the mean N. Pacific High Pressure being the only continuum..

Lamar Jackson is now the 7th highest paid QB after Tua and Jordan Love lol. The Ravens got real lucky signing him. But if you look at teams records vs QB after year 2001, the QB position is still underpaid vs cap!

Not a bad little pattern for the warmest day of the year, on average (~July 27-28)

I think for a max correlation over the continental US, you want something exactly in between the PNA and PNA-associated with EPO combo. 50/50 could be the max correlation reading, as a hybrid between the two patterns so you get the Upper Midwest and the Southeast on the same page, call it a N. Pacific low at 40N. But the classic PNA does not have a high correlation over the Northeast, despite a lot of what you hear, you are right about that. If you look at precip, the classic PNA actually comes in drier than colder over the East, making all things equal, not a very high snow-correlated pattern. It does have much lower SLP correlation on the coast though. So stronger storms with not as much moisture is +PNA. El Nino of course is inversely related to that: So when you get a +PNA in non-El Nino, it is especially dry. And -PNA in non-La Nina is especially wet.

Just a little musing but.. I think the classic PNA position is too far north. Push it south and you have a much higher correlation to East Coast temperatures. The problem is, in the classic PNA patterns, the anomaly often spills over into Alaska, and the temperature correlation over the US becomes neutralized. Here's the cold season H5 correlation to classic PNA Temps Push that N. Pacific pattern south a bit: And this is what you have: It makes sense that a Low/High in the N. Pacific at 50N would be less of a linear effect than 30/40N. For US temps, you have a hybrid between a cold and warm pattern, being called the PNA. That's why Dec 2020 wasn't so cold.

You're doing pretty good. I've done roll forward stuff with various global patterns (Mexican heat wave in May, CONUS record temps over the past 8 months, +EPO since the Winter, +NAO since May), and they are showing continued above average through March 2025.. But sometimes the EPO pattern will flip like you said.. that's how we could get some colder weather in here. Usually it would have to start in Sept-Oct.

It looks like he has a losing record, and ERA 4.0+ in a time when the league batting average is .240. Do they plan on starting him in the playoffs? I don't really see a big difference between winning the division and entering as a wild card team. It looks like they gave up two 2nd round picks from last years draft for him..

Models really overestimated the strength of the EPO and NAO in the medium range. This is a bias I have seen sometimes, they overdo pattern consistency in the MR/LR. It will still be in the 90s, but not record breaking like was looking possible before.

13-14 PDO was because of the pattern, though. It's like pointing out that the ground is cold after 4 months of 20 degree days.

These August maps verifying would make it the warmest Dec - Aug on record for the CONUS by a little bit of a margin.. Just so you know they aren't general global warming maps, look over Alaska.. the CPC is predicting once again a pretty strong +EPO The roll forwards, going back to 1948, are ugly, and has a pretty strong correlation signal for every month but December going into March 2025.. not because warm begets warm, but because historically the dominating patterns have remained consistent.

Those warm pools at 40-45N, off of New Foundland and south of the Aleutian islands really are something.. approaching +10F readings. I think that's the range where it starts having more of an impact on the atmosphere. Or at least it would take a lot of "work" to change.

Yeah, it certainly didn't work in those years.. they were very -PNA Winters It didn't work in 96-97.. we had a Strong Kelvin wave hit in the Winter, that preceded the 1997 Super El Nino.. That was more of a Neutral Winter. But back I think in 2008, I constructed a custom index going back to 1948, using the ftp custom input on CDC maps, and found it did historically test back better than ENSO measurement, like Nino 3.4 SST and OLR, 850mb winds, 200mb winds.. etc. And since 2008, it has worked at like +200% lol. I can't make custom indexes anymore on the CDC daily and monthly composites, but if I could you would see the overall +correlation.. the PDO beats out Nino 3.4 in correlation composites with the N. Pacific pattern, but the subsurface beats out the PDO..

The SSTs lagged what was happening atmospherically though. After a Strong High pressure set in, in the Gulf of Alaska, Oct-Dec, SSTs eventually matched suit. They did not look like that when the pattern began in 2013: -PDO warm pool was far enough south where it really shouldn't have led that -EPO pattern Like 2002 and many others, the pattern got going real quick in October, but there was a pretty solid -PDO in place before that happened..

Yeah, you got the high precip correlation of +NAO, and severe cold of -EPO. Hasn't happened together like that too many times historically. Dec 1983 is one, although it was a near neutral NAO. Dec 1989 had +NAO, but precip is usually better in Jan and Feb.

Thanks! I especially like these examples for the times the N. Pacific H5 pattern most deviated from the surface ENSO state.. For El Nino, 65-66 and 72-73. For La Nina, 95-96 and 00-01 The maps are self-explanatory. And that's 4/4. The correlation isn't always perfect, but when I previously plotted all subsurface data vs surface, I found a stronger N. Pacific 500mb correlation with the subsurface. Then of course, this year v before a big -PNA set in Feb 15 - March 31 and carried through the Spring Making 23-24 the 3rd most deviated situation between El Nino SSTs and the N. Pacific 500mb pattern.. negative subsurface The subsurface does change a lot, so if there is, say a Moderate Nina in the subsurface now, that doesn't mean it will hold 2-3 months out, or the Winter for that matter.

We did have an "El Nino pattern" that June with a +PNA and warm anomaly over the Arctic Do you have a link to those older subsurface maps?

If Nino 4 maintains its warm anomalies through the Fall and Winter, we could be looking at another Strong El Nino in the next couple of years, or "El Nino state", I think. The SOI becomes more important now, imo.