Stormchaserchuck1

Waters were almost neutral close to South America.. 2010-2011 was greatest anomaly in the western ENSO regions, which I'm saying is a different kind of event. The east-based Super events also seem disconnected from the PDO, so it may even be a function of the mid-latitude cells that you get trade winds over the western ENSO regions in a lot of these "varying Weak-Moderates"

Yeah, you have to think the mean is skewed though if El Nino's are pushing on the trades much stronger than La Nina's. Neutral is probably some kind of Weak La Nina, because you still have all that upwelling and cold water temps running along the equator to Peru. The normalization of those water temps to match the northern and southern Hemisphere's should not be a +5-6c El Nino, while the greatest La Nina ever is -2c. You would have to think over a long enough climo period, you would have matching max deviations on both sides.. The top maps match what a cold weather pattern should produce here in N. America. I just don't think you are going to get 17c mean water temps along the coast of South America anytime soon.

2012-14 was the last time. And it was the only time since 1992-94. 1959-63 was the last time we had 3 or more straight year of Neutral.

Minus Super El Nino's.. How come Strong La Nina's don't do this? It's because the strong equilateral winds in the Pacific ocean naturally cause more upwelling in the east than the west. Because of this, Strong La Nina's haven't historically gravitated toward east-based or been of the same deviated magnitude as these El Nino's, but if they did this is what it would look like. Just a lesson in ENSO climatology.

I have a feeling that we are in the same pattern though, and that the Northeast and Great Lakes are too cold in that composite.. If these +NAO's continue, that is what we will likely see unless the La Nina goes Moderate+ and overpowers the +nao/-epo correlation that I have noticed. I'm counting on that at least a minor pattern change has taken place with 7 +nao bouts so far this year (possibly related to the Solar Max).. but I can easily visualize another Winter where we are breaking 50s to near 60 a lot down here. Last years "bursts" were pretty strong including hitting 80 on the coldest day of the year.. hard to not run that forward, or think it may take a few years to change the pattern.. but I'm being a little riskier with those analogs/forecast, and those thoughts are me going colder.. It may just go back and forth a lot, with us usually being on the east side of storm systems..

These are analogs I came up with if we have a +NAO, and -PNA, and run that N. Pacific ridge north into Alaska, making it a negative or neutral EPO/WPO (unlike the last 5/6 Winters). Plus 49-50, 56-57, 71-72, 72-73, 73-74, 81-82, 84-85, 88-89, 08-09, 16-17, 17-18, 21-22 Minus 57-58, 69-70, 76-77, 79-80, 86-87, 97-98, 03-04, 09-10

I know locally it doesn't seem like things are too much warmer vs when I was a kid. For all this panic about +2 anomalies, humans sure can possibly do much more damage than that.. We are also surrounded by Space that is absolute zero. I'd say the rate of warming to concern is less than our capacities. Also Russia and Canada are pretty much empty. There is a jet stream shift north though, that is occurring with more south wind. Hard to say if that is something independent of technological revolution effects.

Nice write up.. something I found lately is they were doing an analysis of sea-level rises from 2011 to 2022, and it looks so +NAO! Like +0.7 correlation in the south, and -0.5 correlation in the north. I wonder if the CPC's calculation (which has been disconnected from 500mb pattern the last few Winters) factors in stuff like that. It would explain the super positive consecutive streak they have, where since 2013, 16/16 Winter monthly NAO's > 1.11 have all been positive! While I think in reality, we have seen a split between + and - Winter monthly NAO's. The problem too is a super -PNA pattern may pop ridging in the south part of their NAO measurement, making it seem +nao. I like to look at the independence of the region, because that has effects coming from a specific point of happening. This may be a super +NAO Winter per CPC's calculations, but we may get some Greenland ridging at times.. Another thing too, is with a strong 10mb vortex, the effect isn't always a pure +AO. Sometimes that strong Stratosphere vortex, like a tornado, will hit the lower atmosphere and actually flex the meeting point between the mid-latitude cell and Polar cell. This could amplify High pressure that is RNA, or even sometimes south-based -NAO, like your maps of +qbo's shows. This has especially happened since 2008.

00z GFS long range has a ridge stretched from the US across the central-N. Atlantic. That's a big area of >594dm on the ensemble mean. I am watching this period, as enhanced La Nina conditions are projected to pick up, possibly strengthening the N. Pacific ridge, sustaining that strong ridge across North American to the Atlantic downstream. Waves off of Africa could have a favorable setup for long track, and westward moving storms.

I posted this in the La Nina thread, but long range GFS ensembles are showing a very favorable pattern for westward moving tropical systems starting the last week of August. The N. American pattern evolution would favor more GOM or FL hurricane hits, as that central Canada ridge moves east with a -PNA. The central-N. Atlantic ridge of 594dm is strong on the mean. If we see African waves progress, they would likely move more westward under that ridge at this time.

That 60W/20N is a big climo spot. Storms that pass NE re-curve >90% of the time. CV Storms that pass SW of it re-curve vs hit land 60/40. Models do have a -EPO developing when the storm is getting close to the EC, and that favors more of a troughy pattern, so I would right now probably favor a turn out to sea, but if it tracks so far south as to the Caribbean first, it could stay clear of the EC trough, but I don't see the pattern as favorable for SE US or NE, US hits.

LR GEFS is flexing a ridge east of Japan again, near that warm pool region. The US pattern in evolution would favor more GOM or FL hurricane hits, as that central Canada ridge moves east with a -PNA. central-N. Atlantic ridge is strong on the mean. If we see African waves progress, they would likely move more westward at this time.

I actually thought that Winter 22-23 would be cooler than it was. It was one of those years where the subsurface wasn't accurate.. nothing is perfect, but over a larger amount of data, it does work better than the surface, and even the PDO.

We'll see.. if it's La Nina this year, that will make 4/5 years with La Nina (which is the most consecutive going back to 1948). 86-88 was at the peak of +PDO phase so I'll give you that We have also had 7 +NAO bouts so far this year, where for the last 4 years, it was 2-3. That could possibly signal a phase shift.. The NAO is looking not so positive for August and possibly September though.

It's been because of a +WPO/+EPO though, which isn't necessarily an El Nino indicator.. although maybe for east-based events.. 5 of the last 6 Winters have been +WPO. This is a cold weather anomaly over the Bering Strait region.

22-23 would probably be #2 on his list

In other news, the North Pacific High near the Aleutian islands looks to be strong for the next 15 days on models.. Will continue to strengthen the -PDO. Not coincidentally, this is occurring while the central-ENSO-subsurface is in "Moderate La Nina" range

The western subsurface is building warm anomalies, and the 90-day SOI is -9. I mean, it is possible, but the trends for the following year usually start to post clues around this time. That Nino 4 is still warm-Neutral kind of puts Winter potential Kelvin waves into play. Remember, most ENSO events peak only a few months from now, and El Nino to Neutral isn't usually followed up by a La Nina (it may still be Weak Nina, but the "swing" after a Strong El Nino usually sets the tone in the 1st year). Maybe I'm rushing the warming train (El Nino probabilities a few years from now)..

Yeah.. probably won't be a La Nina next year.

99-00 is probably your best match, but you aren't going to find anything that fits all of that. A lot of recent analogs are closer to your guidelines than older ones..

98-99 was also very warm across the CONUS Dec-July [97-98], which matches that this year is #1 in that regard..

October has a slight opposite correlation to the Winter's NAO (and it's the only month of the year where this is true), so it may be a backwards way of doing things, but if we are looking at a +NAO Winter, I'd watch for a -NAO October, or maybe before.. -NAO in October could connect up with a -PNA, or even if it's not a strong NAO signal, I think the -PNA would be amplified by the tendency.. These -wind bursts may strengthen the central-ENSO-subsurface which is already in Moderate La Nina range, just further amplifying the -PNA signal in the coming months..

I did it before and published my work on easternuswx, but I don't have those filed saved anymore. Here is what you are looking at though, if you want to do an analysis yourself (it would take a few hours). The +SSTA area I give 1.00 weight to, and the -SSTA area I give 0.65 weight to. It looks something like this: Because the northern area has more volatility. I made the total dataset, SSTs and NAO even, by multiplying the total historical absolute number of both, and dividing it by each other. Here is what 8-5-2024 looks like:

Latest daily AAO: -4.2561 -4.6111 -4.2231 -4.0094 -4.0707 It looks like it's suppose to stay <-3 until Aug 15th: Based around the Winter solstice (Dec 21), here is the Dec-Jan correlation to July-Aug AAO.. there is a signal there, not coincidentally at the North Pole Makes me like the +NAO vs -AO/-EPO Winter potential

Western ENSO subsurface around 120E is holding +2 to +3 anomalies.. 1 strong Kelvin wave could wipe out that central-ENSO-subsurface cold pool (which is -5c to -6 currently!) in the Fall. It will be interesting to see what happens.. Right now I am leaning toward a warm progression in ENSO after about November. This La Nina looks like it's likely peaking here as subsurface effects in the next few months. I could be wrong though, it's not always a linear movement.