Stormchaserchuck1

I think that the progression favors a +NAO Winter.. It works better with Oct -NAO, but late Sept might be close enough

We are kind of due for a -WPO/-EPO Winter, 5 of the last 6 Winter's have been positive, and the one year that was not was Neutral. The WPO doesn't have much to do with the PDO in the Winter months Maybe more negative phases of those indexes has something to do with +NAO? I've certainly observed this Pacific-Atlantic correlation since 2013, and it actually goes all the way back to 2007.

Yeah.. we are progressing well with decadal trends this year so far.. it's actually been very similar. Now this N. American ridge, -NAO, and -PNA in late Sept/Oct is even more confirmation that we are on course with the last few years. It's hard to predict below average anywhere these days, but I think a strong -PNA for the Winter may actually take some time to build. We may see some chaos as it starts this Winter, especially early on (a lot points to RNA Feb as the decadal trend here is +120dm Aleutian ridge as the mean for Feb-Mar since 2018). I wouldn't say expect a colder than normal Dec-Jan, but watch for maybe some pattern breaks during this time..

Just some random thoughts.. but I have seen when something goes so extreme, something may attempt to "even it out" in the shorter term. Here is Dec-Jan 55-56 (after most -PDO month on record, Oct 1955, as so-what's-happening pointed out) In December 2021, the -PNA was so strong.. going >+600dm for several days, that in January it reversed with a +PNA, despite a La Nina. Then in January in following years we saw -PNA conditions The Winter after 55-56: Side note, but Phoenix has broken it's record of most 100+ degree days by 37 days! Here is what those "new data points" look like in December-January (for >38 as a baseline) I could be completely wrong, and the PDO may just have it's usual correlation from this point on.. but it will be interesting to see if the atmosphere swings, re: something so new and extreme (and some data points to Dec-Jan). I've just noticed this happening a lot from 2021-2024. Made a thread about it a long time ago, and predicted some +1 year periods correctly, based on the opposite of an extreme monthly value the year before. I agree that it will be interesting to see the Fall and Winter progress I think if heavy -PNA isn't hit this Winter, it will hit next Winter.

They have about a 0.80 correlation.. the accuracy has improved over the years. That the ridge is over such a large area in the N. Pacific on the mean adds some validity.

Trying to build that Aleutian ridge on LR models.. look at how it extends back to Japan.

That N. Pacific warm pool is so strong, and the La Nina is turning west-based! I wouldn't be surprised if Sept has a PDO <-3 after seeing that.

They might not be unrelated though. I made a prediction in this thread a while back that when the Fall pattern started (late Sept into Oct), we would probably see a -NAO and -PNA. This has been the way it has progressed over the years, over and over again. It might be something in the overall global pattern that causes Oct and the Winter NAO to be opposite. I just know that when you have both signs of an index showing the same thing (seems like you did it for +October's.. it works for -October's too), it should have some level of credence. Edit: I would be interested to know if it works the same recently. My thoughts are it still has a -correlation, but not as strong as before. We have seen a good amount of -NAO Oct's lately, and we know that Winter's have been mostly +NAO per CPC calculations.. Now doing a quick research, The last 5 years have all been -NAO Octobers. 5 +NAO Winter's. From '01-14 we had 12/14 -NAO October's.. and you say that the Winter NAO has only been negative 4 times since 1979? Seems to work imo.

Use the whole dataset.. + and - events for JFM vs October. Try it out for amplitude >0.50 and >1.00 events in October. On this site below, it does the whole thing as a correlation composite for you. (Before I found out about that, I had calculated it manually in the past, and came up with the same results.) https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/ Dec is 50-51% The highest reverse correlation is March. CPC NAO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table What you will find is that both positive, and negative NAO phases reverse in JFM, and even if you do DJFM for the Winter as a whole

Jan-Feb-March is where the heaviest correlation hits. But this based on the whole dataset, 1948-2023, 75 years, not just 6 years. You can research it for yourself on the CPC NAO data. I think we talked about this last year. I find it interesting, because no other month of the year has a <50% correlation, then all of a sudden October is 45%. When you have 76 years of data, that tells me the signal is at least mathematically neutral, not positive.. of course over like 200 years it may be closer to 50%.

In January-February-March, the October NAO actually has a pretty good opposite correlation with the NAO of those months.. it's about 45%. This is impressive because no other months of the year have a correlation <50%. Default of these maps is positive, so it's showing after a + index state I know this -NAO is falling into the realm of September, but just barely.. because it's the last few days of the month, it probably has a 49% correlation to the Winter NAO (since Oct is 45% and Sept is 51%).

We've never really had good WR's. Lamar has great vision, and I'm surprised that he is such a good QB being a natural athlete. usually someone with his speed (which there aren't that many people) isn't going to be great at throwing, which he is. He ran into my sister at a restaurant once right before a game, then threw his 3rd perfect QB rating against Detroit (ties Kurt Warner for NFL record). I was like.. "wow, he must do this stuff naturally".

For your 666th post in this thread. 33 lol Then there is only this member browsing 3-3-13 lol Don't feel bad, I was doing something money related and e pluribus unum was the only one browsing lol

A long time ago, I found that patterns on the West Coast, and especially the SW, US, lead us farther east by a significant amount of time, and the correlation was fairly high. This worked on both monthly and yearly, and even decadal scales. With the West Coast having an exceptionally warm Summer, and places like Las Vegas and Phoenix breaking their records by as much as +2F, I made a composite of 23 analogs since 1948, and rolled that forward to not this Winter (I found there is a slight +pna correlation this Winter, as the pattern seems to carry and not spread at that shorter amount of time), but the following Winter (25-26). A long time ago all my roll forwards were within +1F, as I didn't know what to really look for, but now these things have pretty strong signals. Here's the +16-20 month period (DJF 25-26): +5F max for 23/75 analogs (>30% of the total dataset) is pretty strong. I think the SW, US is kind of a global warming center, as they generate their own conditions, not so much index driven, especially in the Summer.

12z GEFS.. N. Pacific ridge reloads and reloads, then there is a big Aleutian ridge for early Oct. We are having this year a really high correlation between the ENSO subsurface and N. Pacific ridge.. when the subsurface went negative in mid-February, the ridge started happening and it has held strong now all the way through October.

I think it's because there is a trough over Alaska.. I've noticed over the years that they have weight on Alaska and Gulf of Alaska for PNA measurement

Looking back, when the East coast was super dry May-June, and the cap wasn't breaking for anything, that should have been a good signal that the tropics wouldn't be as wet.

No way should that be a +PNA.. not only that but it's >1, with one of the larger index readings in the last few months. ' Last Winter was also classified +PNA, when there was definitely an Aleutian ridge over their "blue" region. This messes me up, because I use their correlation composites, to run together different patterns +lag/lead times.. if they aren't classifying N. Pacific ridges right, it could give some silly and unwanted results.

+NAO has a slight correlation with higher SLP and cooler SSTs. I guess this is what they are referring to In September, the wavelengths are so short that there is actually a slight lower SLP correlation in the hotter tropical region We should be having a -NAO by late September

There have been plenty of active seasons with +NAO's before. The thing is, Sept 12th is midway through the season and we are on "G", which is the 7th storm. On pace for 13-14. For a very long time, the Atlantic average 9 NS/yr. The better thing to look at is "what wasn't anomalous this season". Assume that the last 30 years have been an anomaly, with the Atlantic having 180% ACE, and the whole globe together having 74% ACE.

The Euro did have 200% moisture in the Caribbean for ASO.. that's not verifying for sure. I have been impressed though at how we very rarely see a total disconnect from these modeled seasonal H5 patterns.

That is disconnecting too.. TAO/Triton is not nearly as impressive.

Pretty good -NAO/-AO on the LR 00z GEFS. This is the only time of year where we don't want it to happen!

I saw this posted too: I think the Euro has a 0.65-0.70 seasonal forecast correlation. Even though it had the ridge too far north last Winter, it did come within hundreds of miles of a record breaking ridge that did take place. It also had a good Summer LR forecast for heat in the NE. The Euro isn't perfect, but it usually does generally come within a general range area.. that below normal extends up to the Canadian border is a little concerning in the Mid Atlantic. Maybe not so much New England.

La Nina (general) is a colder composite for you. Here are anti-Strong El Nino's: The EC is probably a little warmer than that composite, as there is somewhat of a -NAO signal. I think all the 5 Winter's you pointed out were warm on the EC (doesn't mean La Nina is warm, it just means the automatic cold signal in the historical database has some -NAO/-AO influence). I would probably push that cold to the Upper Midwest and NW lately, especially for more west-based events.