Stormchaserchuck1

70-80% of the cold Oct-Nov's remained cold and 70-80% of the warm Oct-Nov's remained warm, which is pretty even. I think I had like 9 cold analogs 1992 and after, and 5 warm before the 1960s. Obviously, you might want to add something like 0.30 correlation warm this year just because of how things are going.

I actually did give a slight cold advantage to recent analogs, and warm advantage to older analogs when doing the weight. For example, 92-93, 93-94, 97-98, 00-01, and 02-03 were all cold Oct-Nov's (I did + and - analogs by the way). So I had a total of about 15 warm analogs, minus 15 cold analogs. But recent analogs didn't have to be super cold to make it, and 1950s analogs didn't have to be super warm to make it. Evens it out a bit, because I'm looking for a global-index signal. The analog composite which the maps cut off, actually have a good mix throughout the 75-year base period of older and recent years. I think that takes CC out of the equation, a little bit.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ "view data"

Already plotting the warmest Oct-Novembers on record for the CONUS, because this year could make a run at #1 Top 30 analogs, since 1948, Oct-Nov map: Following December (30 analogs) Following January Following February (30 analogs) Following March (30 analogs) Oct-Nov ridge has a tendency to move east for the Winter months.

I can't believe there are no clouds in the sky with a front approaching from the west.

I mean an anomalous pattern is flexing itself right now.. anytime you can probably say that January something could sneak in or happen, MJO's run in 40-day cycles and such, but the pattern that we are calling -PDO is off the charts right now (SE ridge probability).

Today is that anomalous dry pattern showing itself. With a decent front approaching from the west, I was thinking we might have a thunderstorm risk, but the skies are completely clear with just a few chemtrail clouds in the sky.. The pattern from May-on is holding at least through today..

It's actually looking like Days 14+ a +EPO will build, giving us well above average conditions. November could end up being a top 10 warmest month in a lot of places if models are correct right now about days 14+.

October PDO -3.81, lowest monthly reading going back 170 years.

With a weak ENSO state, my -NAO/-PNA/+EPO correlation is working. Look at this massive ridge extending across the N. Pacific! (it's been trending stronger the last 2 days) The new thing today is this huge +EPO at the end of the model run, which is the warmest pattern, and would result in very above average temperatures across the CONUS for late Nov, if it holds (just started appearing on LR models today). November could end up a top 10 warmest for a lot of places if this verifies.

6z and 12z GFS ensemble mean develop a huge Aleutian Ridge, -PNA, days 13-16, Nov 18-21. It's a pretty impressive signal, >+250dm on the mean. Should hold a ridge on the east coast through the end of November if it verifies.

Using ONI of +2.1, it's perfect, 4/4, 10/10 follow-up La Nina's. 72-73: followed by 3 years of La Nina 82-83: followed by 2 years of La Nina 97-98: followed by 3 years of La Nina 15-16: followed by 2 years of La Nina

Yeah but the rest of the year has had that ENSO-Hadley Cell correlation. Although ENSO's effects are usually strongest in the Wintertime in the Northern Hemisphere, I'm making a point that the 25-year pattern is La Nina-like, as it expands to the whole year, and Southern Hemisphere, too. We did seem to "re up" after the 15-16 Strong Nino. And now a nearly -4 PDO 1 year after 23-24 Strong Nino. I wonder why that is, why Strong Nino's are starting longer term La Nina-like phases.

Matches the Hadley Cell expansion North and South of Nino 3.4 that we have generally seen, since the 97-98 Super El Nino:

Yeah, that roll forward has been working out great this year. I don't see why it won't continue through the Winter..

With the way it's been hitting for the last 4 Winter's, this much of a monthly record is something to consider. I had been calling it -3.. but not almost -4. There might be thing driving the global pattern that are driving the PDO too, though.

Warmer Jan-Feb composite in the SE 1/2 of the CONUS What I find interesting is that the month-of composite for PDO is much stronger than lead time, but a good amount, meaning that a lot of times in the past it has fluctuated between the Fall and Winter (although unlikely to happen this year).

Natural Gas December contract dropped 7% today, making its spread with Crude Oil/Gasoline the 2nd lowest on record, behind only last year (big +NAO or +EPO signal).

Previous occurrences: March, Jan, March, April, Jan, Jan, March, Feb, March, Feb, March, Jan, March, Jan, Jan, March, Feb Mostly negative as the extreme reading. October 2024 - Positive Could it have something to do with this? (photo I took) Before the solar flares hit, the AO was not forecasted to go that positive. Just an interesting correlation. I would think if there would be an effect, it would be the Pole (AO).

These seasonal models do pretty good, as bluewave has been pointing out. They aren't perfect, but do generally get near the area right. Last Winter, for example, they had strong H5 warmth over NE Canada and the Davis Strait. It ended up being record warm in eastern Canada. Another example, Sometimes they will show warm over California, then it ends up being Arizona, etc.. The Euro currently is showing well below average snowfall to the Canadian border. For the Mid Atlantic and Southeast to have a below average temperature Winter with above average snowfall, the model would need to be near 180 degrees wrong. Because of just that, I would say it's probably 80% that the Mid Atlantic and Southeast have generally above average temperatures and below average snowfall. Obviously, temps are easier to nail then snowfall because 1 big storm or a few storms could make the difference. It's probably 85% temps, and 70% snowfall.

Got down to 32F here

Yeah, the biggest anomalies are over the Midwest, then it neutralizes further east. Stronger STJ gives true El Nino over La Nina an edge for east coast snow lovers. I personally like weeks in the 20's with 2-6" snow events. That's what you'll get possibly in a La Nina if the NAO cooperates.

A real La Nina is actually cold for the CONUS. Colder than El Nino. A lot of the stuff in the western Pacific has cluttered the raw ENSO effect in recent years. And a lot of people even believe that PNA is the main effect. It's actually the North Pacific High

Yeah, I got down to 38F and it actually feels pretty nice out. It was really chilly before midnight with a brisk feel in the air, now it's pretty nice.

Usually happens during more -AO regimes