Stormchaserchuck1

This is my Winter forecast for 2024-25 I do think we will have colder periods, but some of the warm spikes will be extreme +departure days, skewing the overall warmer. So, more variation/volatility vs a constant pattern.

It looks like the CPC thinks the EPO will go negative for the Winter, or the N. Pacific ridge will go polar and extend north. I had this opinion in the Summer, but the last 1-2 months has been more of the same pattern that we have seen for the last 6 Winter's, imo. Will be interesting to see if they verify.. they usually don't go so cold as they are over the PNW and Upper Midwest for a 3-month period. This is especially interesting because the SW, US has been +7F over their all time records for a 3-week period lately. They usually smooth the overall warming signal out for a seasonal forecast, but the forecast is downright cold in the NW 1/3 of the US. If the NW has such a cold Winter, I don't see how we don't go extremely warm in the East, given what has happened over the last few Winters.. we had 3 days of +NAO ridging last January, and DC hit 80*. The same is happening tomorrow.. the NAO is going positive, and there is a 591dm ridge over Toronto, Canada. Little spikes are causing some extreme +departures days.

It's one thing when the PDO is X value. It's another when it's accurately predicting the state of the atmosphere months in advance. In 2013 it was not hitting in the Fall. The one month that the PDO doesn't have a high correlation to is December.. Its highest is Jan-Feb. SE ridge signal of +0.5, or 75%. March is just as weak as December.

Pacific 500mb pattern should finish out October something like 0.90 correlation to the historical -PDO composite.

Now a deep +EPO for early November on the 00z GEFS. Could be way above average if it verifies, +epo's are the warmest pattern.

The last 4 runs of GFS ensembles at 384hr (0.75 pattern correlation) have showed a decent +EPO for the 1st day of November. If we were to see a predominantly -EPO this Winter, this is when history says it would usually start to show itself. But the opposite is occurring, with at least the 1st week of November looking probably warm. Natural Gas has also gone down a lot in the last few days with the NG/CL-Gasoline spread the 2nd lowest on record, behind only last year at this time.

Yeah.. I mean something globally than before. -PNA's (-PDO) have been historically associated with -NAO. I wonder if the start of +NAO's this year.. which we really haven't seen like this in a very long time could be somewhat of a change to more of a +ENSO global state, that takes place next year or something. Despite what the CPC says the NAO is, we haven't seen troughs like this over Greenland for a long time. Here was the 1st one It got up to 80* in DC one of those days It hasn't changed the PNA/PDO yet, but maybe over the next few years it will.. coming up being the 9th time it has happened this year. All I really saw was global High pressure 2020-2023.

2013 started a 2-3 year regime shift in the Fall. I thought it wasn't worth considering unless we saw something similar this Fall, which would have been difficult with a -3 pdo. The +NAO this year, now coming up on its 9th bout in the medium-range could signify the coming of a global phase shift though. We'll have to see how that goes next year.

October NAO actually has a negative correlation to Jan-Feb-March, going back to 1948.

I'm not sure why you're posting September TAO/Triton subsurface.. the subsurface has since neutralized, with no regions greater than +1c. CPC is still showing cold subsurface waters though. I don't know which one is more accurate. I will say that we probably don't see an official La Nina with 5 consecutive months < -0.5. That would give us only our 2nd ENSO Neutral year in that last 11, if I'm right. Of course, other things like the MEI and RONI are showing La Nina, and they have higher pattern correlations. But I wonder how much those things are associated with the PDO? PDO at -3 right now is nothing to overlook, given how strong of an indicator it has been over the last 4-30 years. This October is fitting the -PDO H5 about as closely as you are ever going to see. I would love to separate this and ENSO, to see if my ENSO subsurface theory still holds up.

What I really like about the PDO in October, is how it correlates with an independent pattern. As you can see by January, PDO is associated with PNA conditions. the 500mb pattern probably is associated with similar waters over this time. But in October, an independent correlation appears I think I mentioned this in August, and sure enough with the -PDO record breaking and holding a very strong pattern correlation over the last 4 years, a strong Gulf of Alaska trough has transpired this month.

Everyone was matching up 2013 in the Summer, but here is how it matches up now. What we have is fitting -PDO for October pretty nicely.

The problem with the NAO is it's partially calculated over our area. It's pressure difference between higher latitude and the mid-latitudes, so when we have colder weather/trough, it's coinciding with more -nao. That's part of the reason why it's been so positive for the last 10+ years.. we have been in a mid-latitude warm pattern. H5 over Greenland is a better way to measure an independent index. That's what I wish the CPC would do, since they have correlation composite maps based on index state - the last few Winter's we have seen some good Greenland blocking, that has been very close to +NAO, because the SE ridge was occurring at the same time. I would say the problem is the Pacific Ocean. A theory is that the Solar Min 2004-2022 creates more High pressure out there from La Nina conditions, and the major solar spike, giving us 8 Greenland trough periods so far in 2024 (when it was 3 such events in the last 4 years), may be the start of an overall pattern change..

A lot of GFS ensembles have a storm developing in the Caribbean in 5-7 days. It's a real nice SE Canada 500mb High pressure occurring at this time, which favors Gulf of Mexico/Florida hits.

Some more pictures from last night.. this was maybe 5 minutes after it was the brightest

News stations definitely would have reported Aura's several decades ago.

No! It seems like people keep making this point about awareness being greater only recently. Record keeping was very good when I was growing up in the 1990s, and well before in the 1970s-80s. We have had access to satellites that are used very much by the public for a long time.

That's what I was saying.. I was taught in college classes that it could never happen. Apparently 2003 was much stronger (?) and it only made it to Canada. Something tells me this one is stronger..

Good question. I'm paying extra attention to weather patterns this year. So far the difference is +NAO. We have had 8 +NAO periods this year, when it was a total of 3 in the last 4 years. There was stuff published on this relationship prior to this year.. My intuition says more High pressure.

Definitely getting +NAO again, X amount of time after northern lights. This 2024 +NAO is definitely a new pattern in the mix.. I thought late Sept/early Oct -NAO was predictable because it has had opposite correlations with the rest of the year, and seems to also be slightly related to -pdo. Made a post here in August I think..

Here's one with the moon to the south.. my sister in Baltimore city (about 30 minutes south) said that she couldn't see them. I was just far enough north, but could see the waves moving south while they were dimming somewhat

Some photos That was even 5 minutes after they were the brightest!

I had pink northern lights visible with the naked eye! About 20 minutes ago, I thought it was the sun setting, then stepped outside and realized there were no clouds! They have dimmed now, but it encompasses the whole sky where before it was only visible to the north. Must be cool to see it from an airplane

My Winter forecast

I do think that we will have some -EPO/+PNA periods, most likely in December-January but they likely won't last more than 10 days. The overall mean I think will be pretty above average, and we will have some very warm days on the East Coast this Winter, ahead of storms cutting up through the Midwest, Tenn/Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. February is the strongest month I have right now for warmer than average.