Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Does anyone trade weather derivatives or is familiar with it? It's kind of frustrating that this May pattern was predictable far in advance -- March was 2nd most +NAO on all of records, going back to 1950. The +2 month, following May's had a strong below average temp signal: So here we are in May, and it's verifying Sometimes in weather forecasting there are these strong leads -- and I would like to be able to use knowledge to increase capital. PNW warmth was very predictable from pre-El Nino year May's, a composite that has been working out every month since November 2025: -
Man, I don't want a cool May. It's also our most cloudy month of the year, so below average also means more clouds
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2 days of strong -SOI, moving the 30-day average to the lowest since 23-24 El Nino 26 Apr 2026 1010.40 1011.90 -28.05 -9.61 3.89 25 Apr 2026 1010.94 1012.50 -28.48 -9.08 4.09
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Surface pressures in the wrong positions?
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45 and rain. Would be nice if it was 1.5 months earlier
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Worse yet -- you don't read the thread. You are just copy and pasting what you said B4
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An example of analogs working: March +NAO was top 2/900. When rolled forward to May, it is surprisingly cool, and this is the idea being adopted by CPC going forward Pre El Nino May: Nice combo of the two: warm in PNW. Cool elsewhere.
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Continuing to look like the roll forward March +NAO composite.. when you have something so strong as top 2/900, it does have validity
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It's the context in which you use it though: If you were saying it is biased colder because of the 3-year period after the eruption, that would make sense, but another pattern prevailed, opposite of the Pinatubo probability.
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I'm big believer in Global SSTA's the year before, May-Nov, being a great indicator for Winter WPO. A big one is the Indian Ocean - Warm SSTAs correlate with +WPO at 0.5 (75% chance of positive) and visa-versa for cold SSTAs, relative to the global mean.
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Cooler start to May March 2026 was 2nd most positive NAO on record out of 900 analogs. Roll forward to May looks like a match:
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Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present. It's much more of a straight line than other ENSO regions.
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I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years.
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Coming precip patterns are pre-El Nino Apr-May precip before later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino's: 6-14 day CPC forecast
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Let's see if it makes it all the way to Nino 1+2
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Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs. >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m
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^Matching developing El Nino's in Apr-May
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36/18
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It's time to grade Winter 2025-26(now that it's actually over)
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to CAPE's topic in Mid Atlantic
I'm not too upset about missing the HECS because it would have been gone in a few days. The Jan 25 storm sticking around for 4th longest on Baltimore record makes this Winter, imo. even though there could have been more light snow events. I think it only snowed here (flurries or more) 11 times the whole Winter. 19 last Winter, and under 10 each of the previous Winters since 2018. A light snowfall drought. Such a thing actually predicts future Winters at 0.2 correlation. -
Already 38 here
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What is this?? New Acquisition: The Los Angeles Chargers sign former Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell to a 2-year, $9.25 million contract with $5 million guaranteed. Mitchell averaged 6.3 yards per carry
