Stormchaserchuck1

We may have a snowstorm threat around Thanksgiving. The NAO is going to be coming out of a deeply-negative-state, and the Pacific looks favorable right now. Of course, we've had so much +WPO and +EPO for the last 2 years, I want to see that models don't trend away from what they currently are showing, but it has potential..

Now the 1st week of December looks cold. -WPO develops tonight, and holds through the next 15 days on 18z GFS ensembles.. -WPO patterns don't look that cold in the H5 means, but on the surface they are solidly below average. If we are going to have a decent -WPO, I would actually watch for a snowstorm threat when the -NAO is coming up to near 0. A lot of research has been done correlating the rising-out-of-strong-negative NAO state with East Coast snowstorms, and if the Pacific pattern is favorable, there could really be a snowstorm threat, at least north of DC. Watch for around Thanksgiving, or a few days after.

Actually some pretty nice precip with the cutoff storm system Thurs-Fri for northern MD.. something like 0.25" on the 0z gfs with borderline temps. I doubt it accumulates to much, but not ruling some snow out for me and psuhoffman.

The GEFS has consistently showed a non-Nina like pattern in the long range for the last 2 days. I've said before that ENSO subsurface correlates strongly with the N. Pacific pattern. Since it went Neutral 2 months ago, we haven't seen as much -PNA. It actually shows a healthy -WPO in the medium range and in the long range it's been trending toward a more block pattern, albeit a weak signal right now Not the super warm pattern I expected for early Dec

You're right, Larry. Natural Gas is heavily correlated with long range weather. I find it to be a good median, or average, of what's to come, and to be honest with several years on this board, I've never seen anyone on here beat it straight up. The HDD and CDD stuff you are tracking too is cool. I would trade weather derivatives if the market had more volume. Natural Gas gets a lot of volume, so if you do enough studying over time, and can kind of correlate its swings with long range model changes, maybe you can eventually trade it and make $. There are some methods I think that have an advantage over the market, although they aren't always in signal (like right now ENSO subsurface is neutral).

MJO poses the risk of going through phases 4-5 in early Dec

I'm not going to get all excited about the Winter because of a 10-day period of -NAO in November. 12z GEFS is already going back to a -AAM look by hr384.

It's Nov 11th, and Nino 3.4 is -0.3, the coldest region currently. ENSO events start to wane February at the latest. It's almost impossible that we'll get an official La Nina this year.

Maybe a little early, but we do have data suggesting it could be an El Nino 3-4 Winters from now. Sometimes they happen sooner than the data suggests.

It changes fast though.. all we need is 1 Kelvin Wave in the Winter

Yeah, I tested "lead time PDO" vs "time of PDO", and actually found a near 0 advantage on the lead.. The pattern that is in place impacting the PDO actually tested higher historically.. Of course this Winter you can say it will be a -1 to -2 Winter PDO, and that's not lead, it's time of.

The subsurface is neutral and the SOI is neutral.

Latest SST departures: Niño 4 0.2ºCNiño 3.4 -0.3ºCNiño 3 -0.1ºCNiño 1+2 -0.2ºC

You might also want to rename this thread "2024-2025 ENSO Neutral", because we aren't going to get 5 months of ONI -0.5 or less. Nino 3.4 is -0.3 now, and it usually peaks around a month from now. We might not even make it as low as -0.4 on the ONI.

Warm water is showing up in the western-subsurface, which is catching up to what the CPC has shown for a little while Starting to lower the La Nina chances for next year. The subsurface is also Neutral.. so it will be interesting to see if a La Nina-Pacific pattern happens this Winter. As per the subsurface, it's not as much of a blowout as you would think. Since 1998, the Hadley Cell has been La Nina-like in Neutral times though.

5880dm in Ireland tomorrow! -NAO holds through hr384 on 12z GEFS. The 10mb level is cold, so this is a bit of an anomaly. I was thinking because of how extreme the +NAO has been this year, it would have to flip around a little bit before the Winter, if the Winter is to be a +nao. But NAO in November does have a +correlation with the Winter at about 55%.

Really nice -NAO on the 12z GEFS, through the entire run. Does this at the end: I would watch for the Pacific -pna/+epo pattern to flex in future runs though.

Dec-Feb Dec

Major Winter Storm out in the SW They were in the 100s a few weeks ago. These anomaly spikes, I've noticed, have a tendency to even-out thereafter for the last few years.

How about this La Nina-like pattern The globe has acted very La Nina-like, since the subsurface went negative in February. The relative effect index is actually Moderate-Strong Nina-like. I'm trying to figure out this state of things when the SSTs, SOI, and now subsurface have been near neutral.

Yeah, global precipitable water on the uptick is a big part of what's happening right now.

Well if New Mexico can get 4' of snow in early November, than it's hard to say that we can't get it too with the right pattern. My sister lives in Denver, and it has snowed out there a few May's recently, and even on 9-9-2020! When it was still Summer! The largest anomaly over this 26-year period is over the Hadley Cell in the Pacific, not the Poles! And that's more than 30% of the total dataset being covered! It's a West-based La Nina configuration. +AMO has been in flux during this time, too. Increase in global precipitable water minus the pattern plus global warming gives us only about a 0.10-0.15 correlation skew toward less snow, imo.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas, NM is predicted to get 44" of snow tonight and tomorrow! I've been there, it's right off an interstate that goes across the SW, and does not seem to be that high up. https://www.weather.gov/abq/

Yeah -- teleconnections weren't actually all that crazy today, for what kind of warmth it was.